For anyone trying to pin down the best Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao prediction, the starting point is the gap in league return. Atletico are 4th on 57 points after 31 games, while Athletic Bilbao sit 12th on 38, and that difference has shown across the main season numbers.

Atletico average 1.65 goals scored per game and concede just 1.03, which is still a strong enough base even though their recent form has been patchy. The shots figure of 15.63 per match also suggests they are creating enough, even if results have not always followed lately.

Bilbao’s season has been far less convincing. They average only 1.06 goals per game, concede 1.45, and their recent run looks poor with too many losses and only one win in the latest stretch. That makes this a difficult away trip at the wrong time.

The reverse fixture finished Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Atletico Madrid, so the visitors do at least arrive knowing they have already beaten this opponent once this season. Even so, Atletico’s home record in this matchup has generally been the more reliable guide.

This fixture has been competitive, but Atletico have generally handled the home version of it better. They won 1-0 and 3-1 in the last two league meetings in Madrid.

Bilbao did take the reverse game 1-0 in December and also beat Atletico 3-0 in last season’s cup meeting at San Mamés, so there is enough there to stop this feeling automatic for the hosts.

1) Atletico’s shot volume suggests they should carry the greater attacking threat, especially with more control of territory at home.

2) Bilbao’s low scoring average is a major concern if they go behind early.

3) This has the feel of a game where patience matters more than all-out risk, with neither side likely to want an end-to-end scrap.

Atletico Madrid: mixed recent run with wins and losses, but still operating from a much stronger full-season position.

Athletic Bilbao: poor recent form, too many defeats, and not enough attacking output to make a strong away case here.

Atletico at home: still the kind of side you expect to control this sort of match, even if recent results have not always been smooth.

Athletic Bilbao away: hard to trust on current form, especially against higher-end opposition with better overall numbers.

This does not feel like a classic Atletico steamroller, but it still feels like their game to lose. They have the better attack, the stronger defensive numbers, and the home setup in their favour.

Bilbao can make things awkward and they have already beaten Atletico once this season, but on current form and season data the hosts still deserve the nod.

Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Athletic Bilbao