There is not a huge amount between these teams in raw goals scored, but the way they get there is slightly different. Sunderland average 1.09 goals per game and tend to play in tighter, more controlled matches, while Forest also average 1.09 scored but usually do it with a bit more shot volume and a slightly more open overall profile.

Sunderland are sitting on 46 points, which already tells you they have built a decent platform across the season. Forest, on 36 points, are still much more in that uncomfortable part of the table where every point matters. That can cut both ways. It gives the away side urgency, but it can also make matches a bit tense and reactive.

The other useful note is that Sunderland already won the reverse fixture 1-0 away in September. That result does not decide this one, but it does reinforce the idea that Sunderland can handle this matchup and keep it on their terms if the game stays tight.

The most useful head-to-head line is the one from this season, and Sunderland won it 1-0 at the City Ground. That tells you they have already shown they can make this a frustrating matchup for Forest.

Go back to the Championship meetings in 2017 and there was another Sunderland win plus a goalless draw, so even those older games hint at a low-scoring feel more than a wide-open one. There is not loads of recent top-flight history between them, but what we do have leans Sunderland and leans tight.

1) Sunderland are not a volume side. They average only 9.97 shots and 3.36 on target, which usually means they are trying to stay efficient rather than overwhelm teams.

2) Forest create a bit more. Their 12.64 shots and 3.97 on target suggest they can ask more questions, but their finishing and game control has not always been reliable enough to turn that into points.

3) Sunderland’s xG against at 1.65 is actually a warning sign beneath the surface, because it suggests they have ridden a few moments well. Forest’s xG profile is slightly healthier overall, so there is a case that the away side can be competitive even if the basic points totals favour the hosts.

Sunderland’s recent line is mixed, but there is enough in it to be encouraged by, especially at home. Wins over Tottenham and Newcastle stand out, and those are not results you fluke repeatedly. The issue is consistency, because either side of those highs there have still been defeats and fairly fine margins.

Forest look a bit livelier than they did a few weeks ago. Beating Burnley 5-2 and Aston Villa 2-1 gives them a lift, though both of those came at home. The ugly away defeats at Spurs and Manchester City still sit in the background, and that is what makes this road trip hard to fully trust from a Forest point of view.

Sunderland at home: this is where their recent improvement shows up best. The win over Spurs and the general sense of a tighter, more disciplined setup at the Stadium of Light makes them awkward opponents.

Nottingham Forest away: Forest’s away profile is the bigger concern here. They can be useful when games suit them, but on the road against organised teams they have been more vulnerable and a lot less convincing.

This has all the signs of a Premier League game that stays in the balance for a long time. Sunderland have looked the steadier side across the season, Forest have the slightly better attacking process underneath the surface, but the home setting and the earlier 1-0 result nudge the call back towards the hosts in a low-scoring game.

Prediction: Sunderland 1-0 Nottingham Forest