Our Daily Trio selections for Saturday 25th January.
We had one good winner from our three yesterday as Sweet Couture made the most of her experience to land a novice at Lingfield. The ride given to our selection in the Sandown Military Gold Cup was questionable to say the least, but that’s the chance you take by betting in these types of amateur races. We have no jockey concerns in todays selections that’s for sure.
Paul Nicholls seems to be on the decline as a trainer. He was almost unbeatable during the days of Kauto Star, Denman, Big Bucks, Silviniaco Conti – the list could go on – but simply hasn’t had the horses in recent years for the top races in the calendar. A successful betting strategy of mine in the last few years has been to back against his horses where it’s seemingly a head to head race between one of his runners and one from another stable, but after studying the form and likely make up of the races at Cheltenham today I’m making an exception, for old times sake.
Sauvignon is yet to run in the UK, having shown a little ability over in France. Paul Nicholls must think he has a half decent horse on his hands as he makes his stable debut in a Grade 2 race, the Triumph Hurdle trial. I’m not sold on the heavy odds-on race favourite East India Dock, who whilst visually impressive hasn’t really beaten anything of note. I do not believe East India Dock is a viable contender to win the race at Cheltenham and I have to take him on here. We simply don’t know how good Sauvignon is, but I’m chancing him to give the odds-on shot a run for its money. Selection: 1 point win Sauvignon, 1:15 Cheltenham. (Odds at time of writing 11/2)
Sticking with the Paul Nicholls theme, I think the conditions of the 1:50 are perfect for Ginnys Destiny. The horse is top weight, but top weight for a reason after a Cheltenham hat trick in the Autumn of 2023 and very good runs in defeat afterwards that season. This season has been a laboured start but assuming all is well with the horse, the form is better than any of its rivals. Iroko is my ante-post selection for the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival so I’m hoping he runs well, but I don’t expect him to find top form until March – we don’t want to rise in the handicap too much! An on-song Ginnys Destiny beats the others by clear daylight. Selection: 1 point win Ginnys Destiny, 1:50 Cheltenham. (Odds at time of writing 5/2)
The Cotswold Chase is an interesting one. The form points to L’Homme Presse, 4th in last years Cheltenham Gold Cup here, and third on his seasonal reappearance in the King George over Christmas behind Banbridge. L’Homme Presse also won the 2022 Brown Advisory, so the course form is excellent. I just have concerns around his lack of racing and wins since, and looking at the odds of 8/11 at the time of writing I want to find an alternative. I’d price L’Homme Presse about 9/4 to win here so I cannot tip it up at odds-on.
Gentlemansgame won at Wetherby but Cheltenham is a different ball game and whilst obviously it is a good horse I don’t think he’s anything more than an average group 2 performer. Chantry House rolled back the years to cause a shock last time out, but he was booked in for the old people’s home before that run and it was a useless race. I’d price him at 50/1, not the current 7/1. Delta Work is another who owes connections nothing, running a fine race to finish second in the Grand National. It’s obvious that he is just having a jog round in handicaps / cross country races before being geared up to perform again in March and April.
Stage Star is the horse I kept coming back to. He has been poor since bagging the Paddy Power Gold Cup here last season and only managed a disappointing seventh last time out. He tackles three miles for the first time today which is a gamble, but the likely pace angle of the race is where I can see him having the tools to play a big part. This three time course winner has the pace to kick on going round the bend for home and could have his rivals in trouble. With doubts about all of his rivals, I’m playing Stage Star in the hope that Nicholls can get him running near his best. Selection: 1 point win Stage Star, 2:25 Cheltenham. (current price 8/1).
Also have a one point treble on the above.
Take best odds guaranteed if you can here. If Nicholls starts with a winner then his others will naturally be backed in. If he starts poorly, they will drift.
Happy punting
Mav
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Points? How do I bet? Simply think of a point as your preferred unit stake. If you want to bet in £10s then you would have 3x £10 wins and an £10 treble.
What is the Daily Trio strategy?
The proven betting system and recommended bet is three singles and a treble. As a rough rule of thumb: one winner = money back, two winners = double your money, three winners = jackpot!
Why does the Daily Trio strategy work?
Mav operates at roughly a 33% strike rate for winners over the year, so around one in three selections win. Assuming each winner is 3/1 on average (some are much higher) then each year we should see money back at least based on purely the single bets alone, and the profit comes from the trebles.
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