This semi-final has a clear favourite, but it is not quite as simple as top-flight giant against lower-league outsider. Man City are flying domestically, fresh off wins over Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool, and their recent numbers are exactly what you would expect from a side used to winning trophies.

They average 2.10 goals scored per game, concede only 1.00, dominate the ball at around 58-62% possession, and create plenty with more than 15.5 shots per match. The overall feel is of a team that can pin opponents back for long stretches and gradually drain the life out of a tie.

Southampton, though, come into this in really good nick. They have won their last five listed matches, including that impressive FA Cup win over Arsenal, and they are scoring freely enough to make this more than just a damage-limitation job. Their recent form gives them a puncher’s chance, even if the step up here is huge.

The head-to-head record still leans clearly towards City. The last two league meetings were a 1-0 City win and a 0-0 draw, while previous cup and league clashes have also shown that when City hit top rhythm they can open Southampton up. That is the big worry for the underdogs here.

City have had the better of the historical match-up overall, and that is no surprise given the level gap over recent years. They beat Southampton 1-0 earlier in the season and also won 4-1 in the FA Cup when these sides met in 2022.

Still, Southampton have had a couple of reminders that they can be awkward. The 0-0 draw in May 2025 and that 2-0 League Cup win in January 2023 show they are not incapable of making life difficult. That should stop anyone from treating this like a total walkover.

1) City should dominate the ball. Their 58-62% possession average is well above Southampton’s, and that usually means long spells camped in the opposition half.

2) The shot count points the same way. City average 15.5+ shots and around 5.8 on target, which is the profile of a side constantly forcing saves and second phases.

3) Southampton’s recent run gives them genuine belief. Scoring 5 away at Wrexham and 2 against Arsenal suggests they will not arrive here just hoping to survive.

4) The question is whether Southampton can handle sustained pressure without the ball. Against Championship opposition or a one-off cup upset they can open games up, but against City the margin for error is far smaller.

City’s domestic form looks excellent. Wins over Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool say plenty on their own, and the overall pattern is of a side sharpening up nicely at exactly the right stage of the season.

Southampton’s form is also very good, which is what makes this tie more interesting than some expected. Five wins on the bounce and strong scoring numbers in recent weeks tell you they are full of confidence and momentum.

Man City at home: control, territory and pressure are normally the story. They tend to make opponents defend for long stretches and that is a dangerous game to play over 90 minutes.

Southampton away: the recent run says they are more than capable of producing on the road, but this is a big jump in class and they will have far less room to breathe than usual.

Southampton deserve credit for the way they have arrived at this stage and they are in the sort of form that can make a cup tie lively. But City’s level, current domestic momentum and stronger all-round numbers still make them firm favourites to get the job done.

Prediction: Man City 3-1 Southampton