Fulham come into this one in 12th place on 45 points, which makes this a relatively pressure-free run-in compared to Aston Villa’s situation. The hosts have had an uneven spell lately, with draws and defeats breaking up the rhythm, and that has stopped them building any serious late-season momentum.

Villa, on the other hand, are still right in the thick of the race for a Champions League place. Sitting 4th on 58 points, they have far more riding on this match and they also bring the stronger overall profile. They score more, concede less, shoot more often and generally look the more complete side.

The head-to-head record is also difficult for Fulham to ignore. Villa have won the last five Premier League meetings between the clubs, and they have done it in different ways too. Some have been tight, others more open, but the result has kept landing the same way.

That does not mean Fulham are without a chance. They still average around 1.30 goals per game, they keep enough of the ball to avoid being completely pinned in, and Craven Cottage can be a tricky place when they start well. But if you weigh everything up, Villa still look to have the stronger edge.

Villa have completely owned this fixture in recent Premier League meetings, winning the last five in a row. That is a big trend, especially because it includes both home and away wins and shows this is not just about one specific venue.

The most recent meeting finished 3-1 to Villa, and the three before that were 1-0, 3-1 and 2-1. So even when Fulham have made it competitive, Villa have still found a way through. That matters when the margins between the teams look reasonably close on paper.

1) Fulham are fairly balanced on paper, with both expected goals for and against around 1.39. That suggests they are usually in competitive matches rather than dominating or getting steamrolled.

2) Villa bring more threat in the final third. They average more shots, more efforts on target and a stronger scoring return, which is usually where the gap appears in games like this.

3) Possession should not be wildly one-sided. Fulham sit around 52-54%, Villa are around 53-54%, so this may be more about quality of moments than one team monopolising the ball.

4) Fulham’s clean sheet rate is not strong enough to feel comfortable against a side chasing top four. If Villa get into their normal attacking rhythm, the hosts may need two goals to take anything.

Fulham’s recent run has been stop-start. There have been some decent results tucked in there, but too many draws and defeats have kept them from building any serious momentum.

Villa have also had a mixed patch, but the difference is that their overall level has remained higher and they are still picking up enough results to stay firmly in the top-four fight. That competitive edge could matter a lot here.

Fulham at home: usually organised enough to stay in the game and make things awkward, especially when they can settle into their passing rhythm.

Aston Villa away: the away side may not have it all their own way, but their stronger attacking profile and greater urgency give them a solid platform to edge this sort of fixture.

Fulham should make this competitive because they are not miles off Villa in general play, but the visitors still look sharper where it matters. The better head-to-head record, stronger season return and bigger incentive in the table all point towards Villa just doing enough again.

Prediction: Fulham 1-2 Aston Villa