Free Daily Tips: 1st February
January was a great month for banging in the winners. The racing is fantastic to start February as we enjoy the Dublin Racing Festival, I’d expect a good few winners there also.
Leopardstown
1:15 Final Demand. An unbeaten Walk In The Park gelding who put up a great performance on hurdling debut at Limerick. Others in the race have achieved more, but the word is that this horse could be a grade 1 performer. Sounds Victorious is a good horse but needs even further than 2m6f to show his best, whereas ours may have more speed at the distance. Jasmin De Vaux has an engine but can’t jump straight and this is a jumps race. I’d be more worried about Joystick at a massive price than the other Mullins contenders.
1:50 Sainte Lucie. Strangely isn’t the favourite at the time of writing, that honour goes to Gavin Cromwells Hello Neighbour. Hello Neighbour is good, but Saint Lucie could be very very good. It was a striking performance first time for Willie Mullins when winning a 20 runner juvenile hurdle easily and I can see the horse approaching the last pulling a bus. Hello Neighbour beat Lady Vega Allen by a short head last time, and Saint Lucie is better than Lady Vega Allen.
2:25 Mordor. I’m probably a bit mental posting this horse as my selection. He is around 33/1, and has been beaten four times this season in worse races than this one. He is also up against a potential handicap blot in Meetingofthewaters who is 32lb well in over hurdles compared to its chase rating. I don’t think Chase and hurdles form should be compared though personally as they are very different disciplines and I’m not taking a short price about Meetingofthewaters. Always got the impression that Gordon Elliott was plotting Mordor up for a decent pot somewhere and the huge step up in trip will bring about improvement. I’ll be backing him at a huge price.
2:55 Majborough. I do like Ile Atlantique as a chaser and think there are top class races to be won with him. He jumps economically and could be a very good staying chaser. This race though isn’t going to be about stamina, it’s going to be about jumping and tactical speed. Majborough has a gear that Ile Atlantique does not. If there is nothing wrong with his jumping, Majborough wins. If he jumps poorly then Ile Atlantique will be there to punish him. Majboroughs jumping on chase debut was immaculate though so he can take this on the way to tackling Sir Gino in the Arkle.
3:30 Embassy Gardens. On paper this is Galopin Des Champs vs Fact To File all over again, and at the staying distance you would imagine Galopin will beat Fact To File again. The odds of 1/2 on for Galopin Des Champs though aren’t backable and I think this will be more of a test than the betting suggests however the race is ran. If it’s an all out stamina test with multiple front runners (Galopin Des Champs, Embassy Gardens, Grangeclare West, Minella Cocooner all can go up with the pace) then there are horses aside from Galopin who will relish that. If the race is ran at a crawl then there are horses like Fact To File and Monty’s Star who have a chance of beating Galopin Des Champs for speed, and as always with a slowly run race you run the risk of letting the front runner slip the field when things hot up. Embassy Gardens ticks quite a few boxes for me. Embassy Gardens was thought of as an out and out stayer over hurdles, the longer the trip the better. He isn’t considered one of Willie Mullins’s leading lights (yet) but has looked a ten times better animal over fences and was flawless at Tramore on New Years Day when giving out a front running masterclass. That performance deserves more respect than making him a 14/1 shot to win this.
4:05 My Mate Mozzie. Gavin Cromwell has been giving him a spin on the flat to prepare for this meeting and he makes his handicap chase debut here. Making your handicap chase debut at the Dublin Racing Festival obviously means he has been targeted at this meeting and My Mate Mozzie has better form in the book than any of his rivals. He carries top weight, which I think is quite understandable. I’ll be keeping this simple – the best horse in the race on ratings wins.
4:35 Green Splendour. Gordon Elliott’s horse He Can’t Dance is the heavy favourite in this race after a visually impressive win at Navan eight weeks ago. For all that he drew clear and looked fantastic, he beat nothing. Green Splendour didn’t look as good when winning his race last time but it was over course and distance and he beat good horses. I’ll choose substance over style and back Green Splendour.
Sandown
12:50 Noble Park. Has looked absolutely useless and should go off around his current 33/1, 28/1 price. I can’t get my head around why Nicky Henderson would keep running him in this high a grade if he’s that rubbish, this is a class 3. If going for an attractive handicap mark after a few runs you would run in lower grade races to get a lower mark surely. Today is a four runner field and at 33/1 I’ll pay small stakes just out of curiosity.
1:25 Old Time Chaser. I have been following this horse closely since debut. He has seemed moderate at best but at the same time I don’t think connections have placed him to good effect. I think there is improvement in Old Time Chaser and this is a track where connections do very well.
2:00 Solo. Sandown against this lot should suit Solo’s running style, for all that he has been out of form for quite some time. This is a Grade 2 winning chaser running in a Class 2, on a track that will give him the best possible chance of showing his best. If he doesn’t win today I’d be writing his name on the ‘never back again’ list.
2:35 Kalif Du Berlais. I’m surprised to see this horse as third favourite behind Handstands and Jango Baie. Jango Baie was a good winner last time out at Cheltenham but I’d doubt the form was any good. Handstands has also looked great, but again I’d question the form. Kalif Du Berlais looks like he can go to bigger and better things to my eyes and he is the selection here.
3:07 Goshen. A nightmare of a betting race with questions about everything in the field. If I was having a bet it would be Goshen at the price – currently 28/1. We all know this horses hard luck story at Cheltenham a number of years ago and he hasn’t been the same horse since. Sandown will suit him if he is on a going day and a reappearance run of sorts last time when pulled up should help blow away the cobwebs.
3:42 Gelino Bello. Looked a good animal when winning twice in 2022 but has had issues since. Made a return from a long absence 37 days ago in what was purely a prep race over hurdles which should help him strip fitter for today. If he retains 80% of his ability, he wins.
4:12 Crackerjacque. A National Hunt Flat race with the whole field looking to hold some sort of a chance. A Pai De Nom looked okay when second on debut but something must have gone wrong as he hasn’t been seen since. Mondoui’boy makes its rules debut but has the handicap of having David Maxwell on board (poor jockey when up against professionals). Hurricane Pat won a poor race in November and carries a penalty. Silver Hill had to battle to win a poor Market Rasen bumper and also has a penalty. Crackerjacque showed a little promise when fifth on debut at Exeter and needs to show improvement but is a massive price to do just that, so gets my vote under Sam Twiston-Davies.
Musselburgh
1:42 Nardaran. Scottish Triumph hurdle. Nardaran looked a good buy at £135k after his runs in France and ran okay on stable debut last time, looking like he really needed the run. If he improves, he wins this.
2:17 Afadil. Last year’s winner runs off a 4lb lower mark this year. Looks to have been aimed at a repeat.
2:50 Fidelio Vallis. Won over course and distance last January under today’s rider Alice Stevens. Has only been seen twice since under a very inexperienced amateur both times when connections were blatantly not trying and is reunited with Alice today.
3:22 Pigeon House. This is the outsider of the whole field which surprises me on form. Pigeon House won twice when trained by Jessica Harrington in Ireland and has ran second three times in a row leading up to this. He takes a big step up in distance which I think will help, not hinder.
3:57 Boomslang. Should be a front running masterclass. A step up in trip can help the horse stay ahead of the handicapper.
4:27 Moonshine Man. Big price but the fifth place on Boxing Day was fair form in the context of this race.
Wetherby
12:30 Stellarmasterpiece. If I’m honest I fancy nothing in this race and think anything can win. With that attitude why not go with the 150/1 shot Stellarmasterpiece, who showed he can win a race when successful on the flat in May last year. Hasn’t shown anything in two runs over hurdles but at that price I’ll throw a few quid each way if we keep the 8 runners for 3 places.
1:00 Nedzor. Has looked as though he needs a step up in trip and a move to chasing. He now gets both at the same time.
1:33 Lud’or. Way ahead of his rivals on all known form. Pragnell hasn’t been seen in a racecourse before but Lud’or sets a high standard.
2:08 Cornerstone Lad. 11 year old course winner who hasn’t won for what feels like a decade. Returns from a nine month break and sports first time cheekpieces to sharpen him up at his favourite course. Double figure price.
2:43 Foster’sisland. Hasn’t won in forever but likes this course. Fairly weighted and a big price if on a going day. Double figure price.
3:15 Jet Plane. Streets ahead of his rivals who are all well past pension age or should be claiming disability allowance and staying in their stables. I think the overnight price of 11/8 is quite generous.
3:50 Little Ledgend. One of two fancied horses in the race for Ollie Murphy. The mount of Sean Bowen. He can back up a solid run first time out at Ascot by taking this.
4:22 Mossy Fen Road. The yard are having a very poor time of things but the noises coming out are that this horse is expected to win first time up. A class five bumper is more than winnable and I’ll be backing this all day long if it sits above 7/4.
Newcastle
4:17 Blue Yonder. Ran well ten days ago to show he’s running back into form after being poor for a while. The visor comes back today.
4:50 Frankies Dream. I didn’t think I’d be backing this one again after a hike in the handicap from his recent wins, but connections have found a very winnable race. 10/10 marks for whoever spotted this race for him.
5:25 Royal Alliance. Nothing between three horses in this small field but I marginally preferred the look of Royal Alliance’s win at Chelmsford than the wins of the other two.
5:55 Latin Five. If you back the winner here, buy a lottery ticket. The best angle I could find is that Latin Five has had a breathing operation since last seen and his form was comparable to these anyway. If it works, and he is ready to go after six months off, then a double figure price looks quite nice.
6:25 Florida Dawn. Easy selection. The current race favourite Jamaican Storm went down in my notebook as being ‘a bit of a nut case’ when I watched him at Southwell. In contrast I have Florida Dawn down as ‘an improver, will have no problem winning a maiden/novice’.
6:55 Swiss Ace. This previous C&D winner went clear with the eventual winner last time out. A repeat would be good enough, and connections have reached for cheekpieces in an attempt to get him over the line.
7:25 Asadjumeirah. Was a KickTheBookies selection when making it 50th time lucky last time out and having gone so long without winning he can do his best London Bus impression with two coming along in quick succession.
7:55 Blackcurrent. Has been out of form for a long time but showed signs of a revival when fifth over C&D last time out. If he bounces out and attempts to make all then we may be onto a winner.
Wolverhampton
4:40 Wadacre Gomez. Reasonable career strike rate considering the crap grade of horse and is around 14/1 to strike again here.
5:10 Arc Zoosve. Was knocking on the door before a below par run at Southwell last time. Wolverhampton may suit.
5:40 Jonny Garlic. Poor race. Our horse ran well last time out so we know he’s in form. Probably has to beat Manton Road who carries a penalty.
6:10 Cuda Been A Rowlex. This horse is 33/1 overnight and will probably go off even bigger after a last place effort at Southwell last time. This is a maiden who has been campaigned at a trip that was never going to suit. It’s a huge step up in distance today and I wonder if we might see a different animal. It’s a big price if so.
6:40 Paradoxical. Showing good consistency which is half the battle on the all weather. Paradoxical is in a rich vein of form and the rivals seem a little underwhelming.
7:10 Mister Mcgregor. Still a maiden after 11 flat runs and is likely to go off at a double figure price. Connections keep trying to get that Elusive maiden win and the two market leaders here are both newcomers. I’m wondering if experience can be put to good use by Hayley Turner aboard Mister McGregor.
7:40 Lady Dreamer. Best form in the race, three time C&D winner, fair run last time, visor comes back on.
8:10 Capuchinero. I have to admit I have never heard of the jockey, but this is a horse I have been keeping half an eye on and a 7lb claim should bring him right into contention at a huge double figure price.
Happy punting
Mav
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Results from the Free Daily Tips section do not count towards site P&L. The Daily Trio section has the long term profit angle covered as we can be more selective, but hopefully we can give you a fair share of the daily winners.
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