Cagliari vs Parma | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 13th September 2025
🗞️ Introduction
Cagliari host Parma in Sardinia on 13 September 2025 – an early marker for two sides targeting a steady, fuss-free season. Expect a lively crowd at Unipol Domus, flags and drums in full voice, and a noisy travelling pocket from Emilia-Romagna. On the grass, Cagliari are pragmatic in a 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 out of possession, keen to spring down the flanks; Parma are compact and tidy, usually 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, happy to soak pressure and break through their technicians between the lines.
👕 Team News
Cagliari – injuries/suspensions: Leonardo Pavoletti (muscle) is out. Boris Radunović (calf) is working back towards mid-September. Michael Folorunsho (knee) has been managed carefully and is unlikely to start. Doubtful: Gabriele Zappa (thigh bruise). Key roles: Elia Caprile should continue in goal; Gianluca Gaetano is the creative spark between the lines; Zito Luvumbo offers direct running on the counter; Andrea Belotti gives penalty-box presence if called upon.
Parma – injuries/suspensions: Matija Frigan (cruciate ligament) is a long-term absentee. Other knocks have eased across the break, with the core group available. Key roles: Zion Suzuki’s shot-stopping and distribution set the platform; Enrico Delprato leads the backline; Alessandro Circati’s aggression alongside him; Adrián Bernabé pulls strings in advanced areas; Milan Djuric is the battering ram focal point up top.
📋 Form
Cagliari over their last 10 competitive matches: 4–3–3, with 15 scored (1.5 per game) and 9 conceded (0.9 per game). Four clean sheets in that run show a growing resilience. Matches tend to start cagey and open up after the interval, with roughly 60% of their goals arriving in the second half. Set-pieces are a modest outlet but they defend restarts better than last spring.
Parma are also 4–3–3 across their last 10, registering 15 for (1.5 per game) and 11 against (1.1 per game). They’ve become harder to beat, but clean sheets are still intermittent. Their big chances come in waves: when Bernabé finds rhythm between midfield and attack, the wide players and Djuric profit quickly.
📊 Key Match Stats
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| Metric | Cagliari | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per game | 1.5 (last 10) | 1.5 (last 10) |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.9 (last 10) | 1.1 (last 10) |
| Clean sheet percentage | 40% (last 10) | 20% (last 10) |
| Average possession | 39% | 41% |
| Average corners per game | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| Average yellow cards per game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Average shots per game (total / on target) | 11.0 / 3.7 | 12.0 / 4.0 |
| Expected goals per game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Average set-piece goals scored | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Average set-piece goals conceded | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Average pass completion rate | 78% | 79% |
| Average tackles / interceptions per game | 15 / 9 | 14 / 8 |
| Goal timing (first half / second half) | 40% / 60% | 50% / 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals (share of matches) | 33% | 33% |
| Average points per game | 1.33 (current season) | 1.33 (current season) |
Cagliari: 1.5 (last 10) • Parma: 1.5 (last 10)
Cagliari: 0.9 • Parma: 1.1
Cagliari: 40% • Parma: 20%
Cagliari: 39% • Parma: 41%
Cagliari: 1.2 • Parma: 1.3
Cagliari: 1.33 • Parma: 1.33
🏟️ Home vs Away Form
Cagliari at home (last 10 home games): roughly 40% wins, 30% draws, 30% losses; about 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded on average, with multiple clean sheets as the crowd drags them over the line in tight affairs.
Parma away (last 10 away games): a bit streaky; around three wins and three draws. Goals average sits near 1.2 for and 1.4 against; they are organised but can be bullied by direct balls and second phases around the box.
⚔️ Attack vs Defence
Goals Against
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🥅 Players to Watch
Gianluca Gaetano (Cagliari) – Finds pockets between the lines and whips dangerous deliveries. If he connects with Belotti or Luvumbo early, Parma’s centre-backs will be dragged into awkward areas.
Adrián Bernabé (Parma) – The creative heartbeat who links midfield and attack. His passing angles and late darts can unlock a compact low block, especially if Djuric pins defenders.
🧠 KickTheBookies Prediction
It feels tight. Cagliari have the sturdier defensive trend and home noise in their favour; Parma pose problems from quick switches into Djuric with Bernabé scheming. Edging it on margins and set-play threat: 1–0 Cagliari.
💡 Betting Tips
Main pick: Cagliari Draw No Bet – stronger defensive numbers across the last 10 and home advantage give them the edge, while the safety net covers the stalemate.
Value play: Under 2.5 total goals – both sides trend under (one-third of games going over), and the BTTS likelihood sits in the mid-40s.
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