Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 13th September 2025
🗞️ Introduction
Tactically, Athletic are likely to set up in a 4-2-3-1 that can look 4-4-2 out of possession: high energy down the flanks, direct running from the Williams brothers when fit, and a focal point in Gorka Guruzeta. Alavés generally mirror with a 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 hybrid – sturdy lines, full-backs measured, and quick breaks through Carlos Vicente or Toni Martínez when the ball turns over. It’s a classic duel: Athletic’s intensity and wide combinations against Alavés’ shape and set-piece threat.
👕 Team News
Athletic Bilbao
Injuries: Nico Williams (muscular) and Beñat Prados (knee) are sidelined. Suspensions: Yeray Álvarez is serving a ban; Álex Padilla is unavailable due to suspension.
Likely roles: Unai Simón anchors behind a centre-back pairing featuring Dani Vivian with Aymeric Laporte, while Yuri Berchiche and Jesús Areso/Iñigo Lekue patrol the flanks. In midfield, Mikel Vesga and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta provide structure so Oihan Sancet can float between lines. Out wide, Álex Berenguer’s direct carrying supports Gorka Guruzeta up top, with Unai Gómez or Robert Navarro offering craft from the half-spaces.
Alavés
Doubts: Lucas Boyé and Moussa Diarra have been managed carefully and are touch-and-go for heavy minutes. No confirmed suspensions noted for this one.
Likely roles: Antonio Sivera in goal; a back line with Nahuel Tenaglia and Jonny/Duarte as full-backs and Facundo Garcés plus Jon Pacheco central. Double pivot options include Antonio Blanco with Ander Guevara or Jon Guridi, while Carles Aleñá connects midfield to the front. Carlos Vicente’s deliveries suit Toni Martínez as the reference if Boyé is eased in from the bench.
📋 Form (last 10 competitive matches)
Athletic Bilbao: 4–3–3 across ten, with 12 scored and 8 conceded. That’s a steady 1.2 scored per match and 0.8 conceded, with 4 clean sheets. They’ve mixed gritty clean sheets with some lively draws – a sign the press is biting but the final pass can still be sharpened.
Alavés: Also 4–3–3 over ten, with 11 scored and 8 conceded (both just over a goal a game). 4 clean sheets underline their organisation; their points tend to come when they strike first and lean on set-plays and wide service to the striker.
📊 Key Match Stats
| Metric | Athletic Bilbao | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Average goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Average goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet percentage | 33% | 33% |
| Average possession | 55% | 51% |
| Average corners per match | 5.0 | 4.0 |
| Average yellow cards per match | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| Average shots per match (total / on target) | 13.3 / 4.3 | 12.0 / 4.0 |
| Expected goals per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Set-piece goals scored (per match) | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Set-piece goals conceded (per match) | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Pass completion rate | 82% | 79% |
| Under/Over 2.5 goals (share of matches over) | 33% over | 33% over |
1.33
1.00
33%
1.4
82%
5.0
1.00
1.00
33%
1.1
79%
4.0
🏟️ Home vs Away Form (last 10 home/away)
Athletic at San Mamés: sturdy return – around half of those ten won, with roughly a goal and a half scored per home outing and about a goal conceded. Four clean sheets in that stretch point to a defence that enjoys the noise and narrows the pitch well.
Alavés away: competitive travellers – results close to even across wins, draws and defeats. Goals for sit around one per trip, goals against a shade higher, but three or so clean sheets in ten underline that their block travels. Dead-ball moments remain their best route on the road.
⚔️ Attack vs Defence
🥅 Players to Watch
Athletic – Aymeric Laporte: fresh back in Bilbao colours, his reading of the flight and line leadership should be central against Alavés’ cross-heavy sequences. His diagonal into Berenguer can break a low block in one pass.
Alavés – Carles Aleñá: stitches phases together and finds early angles into the front. If he gets time between the lines, Toni Martínez and Carlos Vicente will get service.
🧠 KickTheBookies Prediction
Intensity at San Mamés, a strong defensive base, and set-piece margin lean the tie towards the hosts. Alavés’ shape will keep it tight, but Athletic’s wide pressure and second-phase threat should carve the decisive chance.
💡 Betting Tips
Main pick: Home win – Athletic’s recent clean-sheet rate at home and Alavés’ away goal average point towards a narrow Bilbao success.
Value angle: Under 2.5 total goals – both sides’ last-ten profiles and matched averages (goals against at 1.00 apiece) temper goal expectation.
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