Bournemouth vs Brighton | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 13th September 2025
Bournemouth vs Brighton at the Vitality is a lovely early-season barometer for where both south-coast sides are heading. Bournemouth have tightened up since that opening ding-dong at Liverpool, while Brighton arrive with their usual front-foot swagger fresh from a thumping of Spurs. Expect a lively away following, a compact home end, and plenty of pace on the break either way.
Tactically, Bournemouth are most comfortable in a 4-2-3-1: organised mid-block, quick to spring through wide runners and set-plays. Brighton lean towards a 4-3-3 that wants the ball, creates overloads in the half-spaces and pushes full-backs on. It’s control versus counters with a dash of set-piece jeopardy.
Bournemouth
- Out: Adam Smith (hamstring), Enes Ünal (knee).
- Doubtful: Lewis Cook (knee).
- Available and important: Antoine Semenyo for direct running off the right; Alex Scott to stitch phases between lines; new signings Djordje Petrovic (goalkeeper), Bafodé Diakité and Adrien Truffert add steel and delivery at the back; Amine Adli offers a left-sided out ball.
Brighton
- Out: Adam Webster (knee), Solly March (knee).
- Doubtful: None noted.
- Available and important: Captain Lewis Dunk to marshal the line; Bart Verbruggen for distribution; Kaoru Mitoma drives 1v1 on the left; midfield options include Mats Wieffer and Carlos Baleba for control; at nine, rotation options with mobile movement to attack near-post zones.
Bournemouth (last 10, all comps): 4–2–4. Goals for 9, against 10; clean sheets 5/10. They’ve turned games by nicking first goals and then compressing space. When they open up, matches can tilt either way, but they’ve become better at game-management late on.
Brighton (last 10, all comps): 4–3–3. Goals for 15, against 8; clean sheets 3/10. They create a steady stream of chances from wide rotations and cut-backs; the flip side is the odd vulnerability to direct balls over the advanced full-backs.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| Average goals scored per match (this season) | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Average goals conceded per match (this season) | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Average possession | 45.7% | 46% |
| Average corners won | 4.7 | 5.3 |
| Average shots / on target | 5 / 3 | 12 / 4 |
| Expected goals per match | 1.50 | 1.16 |
| Pass completion | 73.8% | 80% |
| Yellow cards per match | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet rate (last 10) | 50% | 30% |
| Average points per match (this season) | 2.00 | 1.33 |
1.33
1.67
1.33
0.67
45.7% / 4.7
46% / 5.3
73.8% / 0.67 YC
80% / 2.0 YC
1.50 xG / 50% CS
1.16 xG / 30% CS
Bournemouth at home (last 10)
Win rate: ~50% Clean sheets: solid return with roughly one every other match.
Tend to start compact and build via set-plays and wide breaks; games rarely turn into end-to-end shoot-outs at the Vitality.
Brighton away (last 10)
Win rate: ~40% Goals: around one and a half scored on average, under one conceded.
Dangerous travellers when they get the first goal; susceptible only when pressed into rushed clearances down the channels.
Goals Against
Antoine Semenyo (Bournemouth)
Brighton’s advanced full-backs leave room for counters; Semenyo’s direct carrying and powerful cut-backs are built for that channel from right to inside-right.
Kaoru Mitoma (Brighton)
Few isolate a full-back better. His burst and disguise on low crosses can decide a tight game, especially if Bournemouth sit narrow.
Prediction: 1–1 draw. Bournemouth’s improved defensive rhythm at home plus Brighton’s creativity without overcommitting screams tight margins. Injuries at centre-back for Brighton reduce their aerial dominance a touch, but their build play should still craft enough to level things up if they fall behind.
Main pick: Draw — Bournemouth’s home control and Brighton’s away threat look evenly matched; both sides capable of nicking one but hard to see either running away with it.
Value angle: Kaoru Mitoma — anytime goalscorer — form and matchup suit him attacking the inside-left lane against a reshuffled Bournemouth back line.
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