Como vs Genoa | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 15th September 2025

Como welcome Genoa to the Sinigaglia on 15 September 2025 — an early check on where both sides sit in the mid-table pack. Como’s 2024/25 profile was tidy and ball-secure (about 52% average possession) with games often decided by one moment either way. Genoa were pragmatic and organised, rarely blown away, rarely free-scoring. Expect a loud lakeside crowd and a strong away following from Liguria. Shapes likely: Como in a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 that uses width, while Genoa lean on a compact back three/four and spring quickly down the channels.

• Como’s circulation then switch: around 52% possession and 82% pass completion last season; they recycle into the half-spaces before hitting diagonals to the far-side runner.
• Genoa’s counter lanes: roughly 48% possession and ~12 shots per match; a lot of entries come via quick breaks down the right then low crosses.
• Set-plays could swing it: Como averaged ~0.24 set-piece goals for (0.26 against); Genoa ~0.21 for (0.29 against). Delivery and second balls are a live route.

Como: Monitor Ignace Van der Brempt (thigh) and Alberto Dossena (knock). Edoardo Goldaniga edges close to a ban so may be managed. Creative responsibility likely sits with Martin Baturina, with Alessandro Bellemo keeping balance in midfield. Defensive depth includes Raphaël Varane, Stefan Posch and Diego Carlos.

Genoa: Checks on Maxwel Cornet and Albert Grønbæk (knocks). Morten Frendrup drives their midfield and Johan Vásquez leads a box-defending unit that is happy to sit and spoil before breaking.

Como (last 10 competitive): 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats. Scoring 1.29 per game and conceding 1.32 with a 26% clean-sheet clip. More of their goals arrive after the break (about 59%).

Genoa (last 10 competitive): 3 wins, 4 draws, 3 defeats. Tight margins: 0.97 scored and 1.21 conceded on average, clean sheets around 29%. They grow into games and prefer it cagey.

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Como at home: around the 50–60% win mark across the last ten on the lake, typically 1.3–1.5 scored and just over 1.0 conceded. About a quarter end in clean sheets. Games tend to open up after half-time.

Genoa away: roughly 30–40% wins with 0.9–1.1 scored and ~1.2–1.4 conceded. They keep shape, attack in bursts and lean on compact defending to stay in the contest.

KickTheBookies BTTS likelihood: 52%

Sanity-checked single-figure estimate based on each side’s most recent 10-match trends.

Como tend to generate slightly better shot quality than Genoa (around 1.28 vs 1.05 xG), but both sides prefer a controlled tempo, so the margin looks slim.

History between these two is sparse and generally low-scoring — narrow margins more often than not.

Martin Baturina (Como): Finds pockets between the lines and supplies quality from dead balls — the link piece when Como tilt the pitch.

Morten Frendrup (Genoa): Relentless in and out of possession; breaks play, then punches the first pass into runners. Sets the tone for their counters.

Prediction: Como 1–1 Genoa. Como’s ball control meets Genoa’s compact block — set-plays and late swings are the likely deciders, but overall shot volume looks even.

Main Pick: Draw — the numbers and styles point to a level game with few clear chances.

Value Bet: Under 2.5 goals — Como trend 58% under; Genoa 65% under across their recent ten. Match-up profile supports another low scorer.