PSG vs Atalanta | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 17th September 2025
🗞️ Introduction
The Champions League group stage heats up as PSG welcome Atalanta to Paris on 17 September 2025. PSG come into this as defending champions, brimming with goals but also juggling injuries. Atalanta are unbeaten in Serie A so far this season and arrive with their usual fearless approach.
The Parc des Princes should be buzzing — home fans expecting a fast start, while the travelling Atalanta contingent will bring plenty of noise of their own.
Tactically, PSG lean on a 4-3-3 built around high possession and wing play through Nuno Mendes and Hakimi, with Vitinha dictating the tempo. Atalanta stick to a flexible 3-4-2-1, pressing high and flooding midfield with energy, relying on Scamacca (if fit) or Krstović up top.
🔑 Tactical Trends
- PSG possession dominance: averaging 75% of the ball with a 90% pass completion rate, they control tempo and rack up over 16 shots per match.
- Atalanta transitions: with 21 tackles/interceptions a game, they thrive on winning it back and springing forward, often through De Ketelaere and Pasalić.
- Late goals trend: PSG score 60% after half-time, Atalanta 55% — this game could open up after the break.
👕 Team News
PSG: Missing Ousmane Dembélé (hamstring), Désiré Doué (calf), Lucas Beraldo (ankle). Fabián Ruiz is doubtful. Kvaratskhelia and Kang-in Lee should both be available after knocks. Expect Ramos to lead the line, with Vitinha anchoring midfield.
Atalanta: Scamacca (knee) is out until late September, Bakker and Kolasinac long-term absentees. Ademola Lookman is left out after his transfer saga. Expect Krstović up front, with De Ketelaere and Sulemana supporting. Scalvini anchors the back three.
📋 Form
PSG (last 10 competitive): 6–2–2. They’ve started Ligue 1 unbeaten with 10 scored and 5 conceded. Attacking fluency is clear, but defensive lapses remain — only 3 clean sheets in that run.
Atalanta (last 10 competitive): 3–3–4. They’ve drawn two of their first three Serie A games but smashed Lecce 4–1 last time out. Defence not watertight, with clean sheets rare, but they always carry a goal threat.
📊 Goals scored — average per match
PSG: 2.5
Atalanta: 2.0
📊 Goals conceded — average per match
PSG: 1.25
Atalanta: 1.0
📊 Clean sheet percentage
PSG: 50%
Atalanta: 0%
📊 Average possession
PSG: 75%
Atalanta: 59%
📊 Average corners won
PSG: 7.0
Atalanta: 6.3
📊 Expected goals (xG) — average per match
PSG: 2.2
Atalanta: 1.6
📊 xG against — average per match
PSG: 1.0
Atalanta: 0.6
📊 Set-piece goals scored — average per match
PSG: 0.4
Atalanta: 0.3
📊 Set-piece goals conceded — average per match
PSG: 0.2
Atalanta: 0.2
📊 Pass completion rate
PSG: 90%
Atalanta: 81%
📊 Shots — average per match
PSG: 16.5 (6.0 on target)
Atalanta: 16.7 (5.3 on target)
📊 Average yellow cards
PSG: 1.5
Atalanta: 1.0
📊 Tackles / interceptions — average per match
PSG: 18.5
Atalanta: 21.0
📊 Goal timing split
PSG: 40% first half / 60% second half
Atalanta: 45% first half / 55% second half
📊 Under / Over 2.5 goals
PSG: 50% under / 50% over
Atalanta: 67% under / 33% over
📊 Average points per match
PSG: 3.0
Atalanta: 1.67
🏟️ Home vs Away Form
PSG at home (last 10): Consistent winners, usually by 2+ goals, with only occasional defensive slips. Their possession game means most visitors spend long spells without the ball.
Atalanta away (last 10): Patchy results — capable of scoring anywhere, but too often undone defensively. Still, they rarely go goalless.
⚔️ Attack vs Defence
Goals Against (per match)
🔔 BTTS Likelihood
KickTheBookies BTTS likelihood
Based on both sides’ last 10 matches.
🎯 Expected Goals (xG) Match-up
xG Against (average)
PSG regularly create over 2.0 xG, while Atalanta average closer to 1.6. Defensively, PSG allow around 1.0 xGA per game compared to Atalanta’s 0.6, showing the Italians’ resilience when set.
⚖️ Head-to-Head
The only recent competitive clash was the dramatic 2020 Champions League quarter-final, PSG winning 2–1 in Lisbon. Otherwise, these sides haven’t faced often, so history plays little part in this tie.
🥅 Players to Watch
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (PSG): His dribbling and cutting in from the left could unlock Atalanta’s back line.
Charles De Ketelaere (Atalanta): The Belgian playmaker has found form, linking midfield to attack and offering late runs into the box. He’ll be key in breaking PSG’s rhythm.
🧠 KickTheBookies Prediction
Atalanta will cause moments of danger with their energy and pressing, but PSG’s firepower and home advantage should tell. Even without Dembélé, their depth is strong enough to win this comfortably .
Prediction: PSG 2–1 Atalanta
💡 Betting Tips
Main pick: PSG to win by two or more goals — dominant at home, superior attack, and Atalanta’s away defence can be got at.
Value bet: Both Teams To Score — model leans towards goals both ways (BTTS signal around the low-60s%) and both sides average 16+ shots per match.
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