Sporting Lisbon vs Kairat Almaty | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 18th September 2025

European nights return to Alvalade as Sporting CP welcome Kairat Almaty on 18 September 2025 (8pm UK). Sporting are defending Portuguese champions and have started the league with goals, recovering from a derby stumble to edge Famalicão late — Pedro Gonçalves signed a new deal to 2030 and promptly scored, while summer addition Luis Suárez is banging them in. Kairat arrive top of the Kazakhstan Premier League after a tidy 1–0 over Aktobe, but travel without two goalkeepers, so an 18-year-old, Sherkhan Kalmurza, could get the gloves.

Expect a loud, confident crowd in Lisbon with a small but lively away pocket. On the pitch, Sporting should set up in a 4-3-3/3-2-5 with high full-backs and inside wingers, pressing early. Kairat will likely be compact in a 4-4-2/4-2-3-1, looking to keep it narrow, slow the tempo, and counter through Dastan Satpayev and Jorginho.

• Sporting’s territory play: averaging about 62% possession and 88% pass completion. They create ~2.1 xG per game with a lot of traffic down the left through Nuno Santos overlapping and Pedro Gonçalves drifting inside.
• Kairat’s compact line: allow few clear looks (~0.9 xGA) by keeping the block tight and funnelling wide. They’re happier without the ball (around 54% possession overall but lower in Europe) and spring quickly once they win it.
• Late swing factor: both sides score more after the break — Sporting 55% of their goals second half, Kairat 60%. If it’s level on the hour, expect it to stretch.

Sporting CP: Doubts for Rui Silva (muscle), Ousmane Diomande (muscle), Maxi Araújo (muscle), Hidemasa Morita (muscle). Out: Matheus Reis (thigh) and Eduardo Quaresma (muscle) through mid-Feb 2026. Geovany Quenda has discomfort. Expect João Virgínia to start if Silva isn’t ready; Gonçalo Inácio to lead the back line; Morten Hjulmand to anchor midfield; and a front unit built around Pedro Gonçalves with Francisco Trincão/Geny Catamo wide and Luis Suárez or Fotis Ioannidis at nine.

Kairat Almaty: Out: Temirlan Anarbekov (jaw/elbow), Aleksandr Zarutskiy (injury). Likely debut for Sherkhan Kalmurza in goal. The back four should feature Erkin Tapalov, Egor Sorokin, Aleksandr Martynovich/Damir Kasabulat, and Luis Mata. In midfield look for Valeriy Gromyko and Adilet Sadybekov to graft, with Satpayev carrying the forward threat.

Sporting CP (last 10 competitive): around 7–1–2. Early 25/26 league run shows 12 scored, 5 conceded in five, while across ten they’re trending roughly ~2.2 for and ~1.0 against per game with ~3 clean sheets. Plenty of goals, but they can be asked questions in transition.

Kairat Almaty (last 10 competitive): 6–2–2. About 16 for, 7 against, with 5 clean sheets. In the league they’re efficient rather than expansive, and in Europe they’ve ground out tight qualifiers (four clean sheets in eight).

Sporting CP: 2.4
Kairat Almaty: 1.6

Sporting CP: 1.0
Kairat Almaty: 0.7

Sporting CP: 20%
Kairat Almaty: 50%

Sporting CP: 62%
Kairat Almaty: 54%

Sporting CP: 6.2
Kairat Almaty: 5.1

Sporting CP: 2.1
Kairat Almaty: 1.5

Sporting CP: 1.0
Kairat Almaty: 0.9

Sporting CP: 0.6
Kairat Almaty: 0.4

Sporting CP: 0.4
Kairat Almaty: 0.3

Sporting CP: 88%
Kairat Almaty: 82%

Sporting CP: 14.8 (5.6 on target)
Kairat Almaty: 12.4 (4.2 on target)

Sporting CP: 2.4
Kairat Almaty: 2.8

Sporting CP: 18.2
Kairat Almaty: 16.5

Sporting CP: 45% first half / 55% second half
Kairat Almaty: 40% first half / 60% second half

Sporting CP: 20% under / 80% over
Kairat Almaty: 60% under / 40% over

Sporting CP: 2.4
Kairat Almaty: 2.2

Sporting at Alvalade (last 10 home): Heavy on territory, lots of box entries and set-piece pressure. Goals average nudging above two; a few clean sheets but the odd counter can catch them if the rest defence isn’t set.

Kairat away (last 10 away): Pragmatic travellers — tight games, decent clean-sheet rate, and happy to play for moments. They don’t cough up much centrally but can be worked by quick switches to the far full-back.

Sporting consistently create around 2.1 xG with strong left-side combinations; Kairat sit nearer 1.5 xG and keep ~0.9 xGA through a compact block — the expected chance quality leans to the hosts.

First ever meeting between the clubs. No prior head-to-head data — the occasion and match-ups matter more than history.

Pedro Gonçalves (Sporting CP): Drifts into pockets, links the left channel and finishes well — fresh contract, sharp form, and a magnet for chances around the D.

Dastan Satpayev (Kairat Almaty): Live runner who attacks the near post and works the channels. If Kairat break, he’s the one who can turn a half-chance into something meaningful.

Sporting’s volume of chances and wide overloads should tell over 90 minutes, especially if Kairat field a teenage keeper. The visitors are organised and won’t roll over, but the hosts’ firepower and set-piece threat tip it.

Prediction: Sporting CP 2–0 Kairat Almaty

Main pick: Sporting CP to win & Under 3.5 goals — hosts create more (2.1 xG vs 1.5), Kairat trend to low totals (60% under 2.5), and a controlled home win fits the data.

Value bet: Sporting CP clean sheet — Kairat keep it tight but don’t fire loads of shots (4.2 OT p/m); Sporting’s rest defence has improved and the visitors may lack cutting edge.