Liverpool vs Southampton

🗞️ Introduction

Anfield hosts a Carabao Cup third-round tie on 23 September 2025 as Liverpool welcome Southampton. It’s a classic Premier League vs Championship match-up: the hosts are flying in the early stages of the campaign, while the visitors are searching for rhythm after a mixed start in the second tier. Expect a lively cup atmosphere with a strong home crowd and a sold-out away end making themselves heard.

Given the schedule, the hosts are likely to rotate but keep their usual high-press 4-3-3/4-2-3-1 shape, pinning the visitors back with territory and waves of pressure. The visitors should lean into a compact 4-4-2/4-2-3-1, aiming to block central lanes, break quickly into space, and make the most of set-plays. The clash of styles is clear: front-foot control versus organised resistance and counter-attacks.

🔑 Tactical Trends

Liverpool average 62% possession and fire off 15.4 shots per match (5.6 on target). The press is coordinated, supported by 13.5 tackles and 9.2 interceptions per game, and they recycle the ball with 89% pass completion. Expect the full-backs to provide width and the front three to attack the half-spaces.

Southampton sit around 48% possession with 9.2 shots (3.0 on target). The visiting back line defends deep, and transitions are a key route to goal. With 14.0 tackles and 8.5 interceptions per game, the shape is industrious, but the side has conceded 1.50 per match, so protecting the box will be vital.

📋 Form

Liverpool (last 10 all comps): 8W-2D-0L. Goals: 27 for, 8 against. That’s roughly 2.3 scored and 0.8 conceded over the current five-game league sample, with a 60% clean sheet rate. Trend: tight margins early in matches, then control through sustained pressure.

Southampton (last 10 all comps): 1W-4D-5L. Goals: 9 for, 17 against. Current six-game league sample shows 0.83 scored and 1.50 conceded. Trend: often grow into games after the break, but defensive slips have proved costly.

📊 Average Goals Scored (per match)

Liverpool 2.30 vs Southampton 0.83.

📊 Average Goals Conceded (per match)

Liverpool 0.80 vs Southampton 1.50.

📊 Clean Sheet %

Liverpool 60% (3/5) vs Southampton 17% (1/6).

📊 Possession

Liverpool 62% vs Southampton 48%.

📊 Corners

Liverpool 6.2 per game vs Southampton 4.0.

📊 Discipline (Yellows per game)

Liverpool 1.40 vs Southampton 2.00.

📊 Shots (total / on target)

Liverpool 15.4 / 5.6 vs Southampton 9.2 / 3.0.

📊 Expected Goals (xG / xGA)

Liverpool 1.90 xG & 0.70 xGA vs Southampton 1.00 xG & 1.40 xGA.

📊 Set-Piece Goals (per match)

Liverpool score 0.40 and concede 0.20 from set-plays on average; Southampton score 0.33 and concede 0.50.

📊 Pass Completion

Liverpool 89% vs Southampton 81%.

📊 Tackles & Interceptions (per match)

Liverpool 13.5 tackles / 9.2 interceptions vs Southampton 14.0 tackles / 8.5 interceptions.

📊 Goal Timing

Liverpool split: 55% first half, 45% second half. Southampton split: 40% first half, 60% second half.

📊 Over 2.5 Goals Rate

Liverpool 40% (2/5) vs Southampton 50% (3/6).

📊 Average Points per Game

Liverpool 2.60 vs Southampton 0.83.

🏟️ Home vs Away Form

Liverpool home (last 5 shown in the recent record): 5W. Goals: 11 for, 3 against (that’s roughly 2.2 scored, 0.6 conceded per home game). Clean sheets: 2/5.

Southampton away (last 5 shown in the recent record): 0W-2D-3L. Goals: 2 for, 7 against (about 0.4 scored, 1.4 conceded per away game). Clean sheets: 1/5 (a goalless draw).

Takeaway: the hosts are relentless at home, while the visitors have been short of punch on the road.

⚔️ Attack vs Defence

🤝 BTTS Likelihood

📊 Expected Goals (xG) Match-up

The hosts consistently generate close to 2.0 xG while limiting chances against; the visitors hover nearer 1.0 xG with a higher against figure. On paper, the chance quality gap is significant.

⚖️ Head-to-Head

Across the last five meetings: Anfield has twice produced comfortable home wins, while St Mary’s delivered one narrow home success and a draw. The most recent clash at Anfield in this set finished 3-1 to the hosts, with earlier home fixtures including a 4-0. Overall trend: the hosts generally carry the edge, particularly on home turf.

🧠 KickTheBookies Prediction

Prediction: Liverpool 3–0 Southampton. The hosts’ pressing, set-play edge, and home momentum point to a professional cup performance. The visitors’ best route is a low block and counters, but the shot and xG profiles suggest sustained home pressure tells.

💡 Betting Tips

Main Pick: Home team -1 handicap. The gap in goals, xG, and home/away splits supports a multi-goal victory line.

Value Bet: Home win & Under 3.5 goals. The hosts often control without chaos; a comfortable but tidy margin fits the recent numbers.

⬅ Go back to Football – Home