Midtjylland vs Sturm Graz | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | 24th September 2025

Europa League action in Herning as FC Midtjylland host Sturm Graz on 24 September 2025. Both clubs sit near the top in their domestic leagues and arrive in winning moods, so this feels like a proper early marker for group ambitions.

The MCH Arena should be lively, with a full house behind the home side and a healthy away following. Expect tempo from the off: the hosts like to attack in waves, the visitors are excellent at springing transitions.

On the board, Midtjylland typically go 4-3-3 with width and aggressive counter-pressing, while Sturm Graz are comfortable in a 4-2-3-1 that squeezes space, presses triggers, and breaks with runners beyond the striker. Styles should mesh into a high-energy game.

Midtjylland average ~55% possession and around 15 shots per game, with a lot of their entry work coming through the wide lanes before quick cut-backs into the box. Set plays remain a steady source (approx. 0.4 goals per match from dead balls).

Sturm Graz thrive off a compact mid-to-high press, logging ~16 combined tackles/interceptions per game. Once they pinch it, they drive into the channels, which explains their strong away record.

Both back lines are well-drilled in defending the area but can concede territory down the sides when full-backs advance. First goal could swing the control battle: the hosts like to keep it, the visitors are happy to let you have it in the less dangerous zones.

Midtjylland: 8W-0D-2L across the last 10. Goals: 23 for, 10 against. That’s 2.3 scored and 1.0 conceded on average, with four clean sheets. Momentum looks excellent, especially at home where the attack is flowing.

Sturm Graz: 7W-0D-3L across the last 10. Goals: 18 for, 8 against. That’s 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded per game, five clean sheets in that stretch. The away record this season has been spotless in the league.

Midtjylland (home): strong run with multiple two-plus goal performances and a habit of fast starts. The press is more intense at home, which creates repeat final-third entries.

Sturm Graz (away): perfect league record on the road to date, typically controlling risk, pinching midfield and countering into space. Conceding just a fraction of a goal per away game in the current sample.

Midtjylland sit around 1.8 xG for per match with roughly 1.0 xGA. Sturm Graz come in near 1.6 xG and 0.9 xGA. The expected chance gap is slim, but the hosts generate slightly higher quality looks at home.

The clubs met in the 2022 group stage, where Midtjylland won in Denmark and drew in Austria. They also shared a 0-0 friendly in 2024. Overall the sample is small, but the Danish side have tended to edge the competitive meetings, especially at the MCH Arena.

Both are well-coached, both arrive in form. Midtjylland’s home pressure game plus their set-piece bite might just be the separator, while Sturm Graz’s away shape will ensure it’s tight. Prediction: 2–1 Midtjylland.

Main Pick: Midtjylland to win