Mallorca vs Alaves | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | La Liga | 27th September 2025

Mallorca vs Alavés hits 27 September 2025 in La Liga, a neat early-season benchmark for two sides targeting a calm mid-table life. The hosts arrive on a steady two-match unbeaten run; the visitors bring defensive order and a habit of grinding points. Expect a lively Son Moix with a full house and a respectable away following from Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Tactically, the hosts favour a compact 4-4-2/4-2-3-1, looking for quick counters, crosses, and set-piece pressure. The visitors are organised in a 4-2-3-1 that can sit mid-block, press in triggers, and spring diagonals into the channels. It’s about who controls second balls and rest-defence: the locals lean on territory and wide service; the travellers back their structure and patience.

• Possession should be near parity: hosts average 48%, visitors 49%. Expect a game decided by pressing moments rather than long ball-hogging spells.
• Shot quality edge is slight to the hosts in volume (10.5 attempts; 3.5 on target) versus the visitors’ leaner output (9.0; 3.0 on target). However, the visitors’ defensive record (only 0.80 GA) keeps games tight.
• Set-plays matter: both average around 0.2–0.3 set-piece goals for/against. One well-delivered dead ball could be the difference.

Mallorca (last 10, all comps): around 2–4–4 based on a 1.00 points-per-game trend. Roughly 10 scored and 12 conceded (1.00 GF / 1.20 GA). Clean sheets about 2 in 10. Games skew lower scoring with only about 40% over 2.5.

Alavés (last 10, all comps): about 4–2–4 off a 1.40 points-per-game clip. Close to 10 scored and 8 conceded (1.00 GF / 0.80 GA). Clean sheets about 4 in 10. Lots of nip-and-tuck contests, also around 40% over 2.5.

Trend watch: hosts share goals evenly across halves; visitors’ resilience tends to improve the longer they hold the clean sheet.

Mallorca at home (last 10 home): roughly 40–50% wins, around 1.1 GF and 1.0–1.2 GA, with 2–3 clean sheets. They’re stubborn when leading and rely on set-plays to shift tight game states.

Alavés away (last 10 away): around 30–40% wins with several draws, about 0.9–1.1 GF and 0.9–1.1 GA, and 3–4 clean sheets. Compact block, selective press, and patience in wide areas define their road approach.

Chance models point to a cautious contest: the hosts sit nearer 0.9 xG for and the visitors just under 0.9 xG, with both defences typically limiting big chances.

It’s been tight and low-scoring. The last five saw Mallorca edge a 1–0 at Son Moix (Sep 2024) and a 3–2 there in Oct 2023, while Alavés claimed a 1–0 at Mendizorroza (Mar 2025). The other two finished goalless in Vitoria-Gasteiz (Jun 2023) and a draw there in Mar 2024. Margins are thin, home advantage has counted.

Prediction: 1–1 draw

With both averaging 1.00 goals for and only the visitors below the one-goal-against mark, the numbers scream stalemate. Expect a chess match of set-plays, crosses, and half-chances rather than a shootout.

Main Pick: Draw — balanced profiles, similar xG, and recent head-to-head trends point to honours even.

Value Angle: Alavés +1.0 handicap — visitors’ 0.80 GA and 40% clean sheets suggest they keep this within a goal.