Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | La Liga | 27th September 2025

Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid is always the headline act in La Liga, and this one on 27 September 2025 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano arrives with both sides jostling near the top of the table. The hosts are unbeaten this season, built on control in possession and defensive resilience, while the visitors are firing with attacking fluency and sit at the summit. With a sold-out Metropolitano and a fierce away following, expect a crackling atmosphere from the first whistle.

The hosts tend to set up with a solid back four and compact midfield two, looking to strike through transitions and well-drilled set-pieces. The visitors are more expansive, usually in a high-possession 4-3-3, pushing full-backs on and seeking overloads in wide areas. It’s a derby of contrasts: structure and bite versus rhythm and control.

• The hosts average 58% possession but use it pragmatically, often recycling until a quick release to the wide runners. The visitors meanwhile dominate with 65%, circulating the ball and probing patiently.
• Set-pieces could prove decisive: the hosts net 0.4 per game from dead balls, with the visitors not far behind on 0.5.
• Discipline may play a part: the hosts pick up over 2 cards per game, whereas the visitors average 1.5, potentially giving the away side an edge if the game turns scrappy.

Atlético Madrid (last 10): unbeaten run stretching across competitions, with 4 wins and 6 draws. They’ve scored around 13 and conceded 8, keeping half of those matches as clean sheets. Games tend to be cagey, with only 30% finishing over 2.5 goals.

Real Madrid (last 10): impressive return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeat. That includes 20 goals scored and only 7 conceded, highlighting a balance of firepower and defensive security. About half of those matches crossed the 2.5 goals line.

Overall, the hosts rely on tight margins, while the visitors tend to stretch games open with their attacking output.

Atlético at home (last 10): consistently strong, winning over half, conceding less than a goal per match, and banking multiple clean sheets. They thrive on home intensity.

Real away (last 10): unbeaten in the majority, scoring freely at over 1.8 goals per game and conceding less than one. They carry their possession-based dominance on the road effectively.

The visitors’ xG numbers show their attacking depth, consistently generating over 2.0, while the hosts sit nearer 1.6. Defensively, the visitors concede less quality chances than the hosts.

The last five meetings have been tight. Two 1-1 draws in 2024 and early 2025 underline the cagey nature of this derby. Real edged a 2-1 at home in March 2024, while Atlético struck with a 3-1 home win in September 2023. In March 2023, Atlético also took a 2-1 away win at the Bernabéu. Margins are always thin, but recent balance slightly favours the visitors.

Prediction: 1–1 draw — The hosts’ resilience and unbeaten start clash with the visitors’ superior attacking record. With history of stalemates and both sides carrying defensive solidity, a point each feels most likely.

Main Pick: BTTS — Both sides score regularly and concede under a goal per game, but derbies often open up enough for each to find the net.

Value Angle: Draw — With three of the last five ending level and current form pointing to a balance of strengths, the stalemate offers value.