Heidenheim vs Augsburg | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | Bundesliga | 27th September 2025

Heidenheim vs Augsburg lands on 27 September 2025 at the Voith-Arena — a Swabian derby with real edge this early in the season. Both sides are short on points and goals, so this shapes up as a six-pointer for momentum and mood.

Expect a full house and a loud away end. The hosts should keep a compact 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 with quick direct breaks and an emphasis on restarts. The visitors are more 3-4-2-1, using wing-backs to gain territory and a patient build-up. It’s pragmatic countering versus measured control.

• The hosts sit at about 45% possession and around 0.95 xG per game — chance creation spikes from set-plays and fast transitions rather than long spells on the ball.
• The visitors average 46% possession with a tighter 1.10 xGA, leaning on a deeper line and compact mid-block, but they’re at just 0.85 xG going forward.
• Second-half tilt: 65% of the hosts’ goals and 55% of the visitors’ come after the interval, hinting at a cagey first half before it opens up.

Heidenheim last 10: 4–2–4. Goals: 9 for, 12 against (0.9/1.2 per game). Clean sheets: 3. Pattern: better at home when the press bites; problems when conceding first.

Augsburg last 10: 2–4–4. Goals: 7 for, 11 against (0.7/1.1 per game). Clean sheets: 3. Pattern: stubborn shape, but blunt in open play — draws piling up.

Heidenheim at home: generally robust — recent run shows wins and a draw mixed with one heavy defeat; restarts are a key avenue.

Augsburg away: low-scoring travellers; compact enough to pinch points, but chance creation is limited on the road.

The hosts generate slightly more xG but concede more. The visitors’ lower xGA hints at a marginal defensive edge, so fine margins likely decide it.

Across the last five: Heidenheim have three wins (two by 1–0), Augsburg have one 1–0 home win, and there’s one draw. The trend screams tight and low scoring, with the decisive moment often coming from a set-piece or quick break.

Prediction: 1–1 draw. The hosts’ intensity at home should create enough pressure, but the visitors’ compact shape and slightly better defensive numbers suggest they can grind out a point.

Main Pick: Under 2.5 Goals — both teams average well under 1.0 scored per game and recent head-to-heads are consistently narrow.

Value Play: Draw — the visitors’ draw profile and the hosts’ set-piece reliance point toward level terms.