Aston Villa v Fulham | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | Premier League | 28th September 2025

Aston Villa vs Fulham is set for 28 September 2025 at Villa Park and feels like an early reset chance for the hosts against a quietly confident visiting side. Villa have stuttered in the league but banked a much-needed European win; Fulham arrive unbeaten in four league matches and sniffing a statement away result. Expect a full house in B6 and a noisy away end — proper Premier League tempo.

Tactically, Villa lean into a 4-3-3 that becomes a 2-3-5 in long spells of possession: patient circulation, full-backs stepping into midfield, and lots of territory with crosses and cut-backs. Fulham tend towards a compact 4-2-3-1/4-4-2 out of possession, pressing in waves and breaking through wide runners and third-man darts. It’s ball dominance versus counter-punching control.

• Villa average about 58% possession but only 1.1 xG per league match — lots of territory, not always turned into big chances.
• Fulham sit nearer 48% possession with roughly 1.0 xG and 1.1 xGA; the visitors are comfortable soaking then springing into the channels.
• Set-plays could swing it: Villa concede around 0.4 goals per game from dead balls, while Fulham score about 0.3 via routines.

Villa last 10: 3–4–3. Goals: 11 for, 11 against (1.1/1.1 per game). Clean sheets: 2/10. Trend: plenty of ball, but chance conversion has lagged and set-piece concessions have hurt.

Fulham last 10: 5–3–2. Goals: 12 for, 10 against (1.2/1.0 per game). Clean sheets: 3/10. Trend: stubborn shape, sharp in transition, and a knack for nicking tight scorelines.

Villa at home (last 10 at Villa Park, incl. carry-over): strong ball retention but recently short on cutting edge; when the press counter is broken, the box can be exposed on second phases.

Fulham away (last 10 on the road, incl. carry-over): several resilient results with tidy game management; more than happy to play without the ball and wait for structural errors.

Villa typically create around 1.1 xG while allowing ~1.3 xGA; Fulham are closer to 1.0 xG and ~1.1 xGA. The visitors’ chance quality profile is steadier, while the hosts rely on territory to grind opportunities.

Across the last five league meetings: Villa took a 3–1 away win in October 2024 and a 3–0 home success in April 2023; Fulham replied with a 3–1 home victory in October 2023 and a 2–1 home win in November 2022. The Villa Park clash in February 2024 finished level at 1–1. It’s been fairly even, with home advantage often telling.

Prediction: 1–1 draw. Villa’s control of territory should improve the shot count, but Fulham’s compact shape and counter threat look well suited to frustrating long spells. Set-plays at either end feel decisive.

Main Pick: Under 2.5 Goals — Villa trend heavily to the under (80% under), and Fulham’s away approach keeps games tight.

Value Play: Fulham — Draw No Bet — the visitors’ recent points return and sturdier xGA profile offer a pragmatic angle if the game stays cagey.