Marseille vs Ajax | Football Previews & Free Betting Tips | Champions League | 30th September 2025
Marseille come in hot after a 2-1 win over Strasbourg, sitting pretty in Ligue 1 with four wins from six. Ajax, third in the Eredivisie, have been solid but not spectacular, drawing their last two big tests against PSV and Feyenoord. This is a massive chance for the hosts to make a statement in Europe after a narrow loss to Real Madrid, while the visitors aim to nick something on the road. The home side’s likely 4-2-3-1 will lean on a high press and wide overloads; Ajax’s 4-3-3 will look to control the ball and exploit transitions. Injuries bite both sides: the hosts miss their first-choice centre-back and holding midfielder, with another midfielder doubtful; Ajax are without their main striker and another forward, plus a midfielder in doubt. No suspensions reported.
- Possession battle: Ajax hold 62% possession on average, funnelling 40% of attacks through central channels. Marseille’s 58% leans on wide runners to stretch defences.
- Pressing intensity: Marseille average 15.8 tackles per game, often winning the ball high. Ajax’s 14.2 tackles suggest a slightly deeper block, looking to spring counters.
- Set-piece threat: Both sides score around 0.4 set-piece goals per game but concede sparingly (0.3). Dead balls could decide this one.
Marseille last 10: 5–2–3, goals 18 for / 11 against, clean sheets 3. The hosts are finding their groove, with recent wins showing attacking flair but occasional defensive wobbles.
Ajax last 10: 6–3–1, goals 19 for / 9 against, clean sheets 4. The visitors are consistent, but draws in big games hint at a struggle to kill off top sides.
Both sides are banging in goals, with Ajax just edging it. Marseille’s attack thrives at home, while Ajax’s output stays steady home or away.
Ajax’s back line is a touch stingier, but Marseille’s home form suggests they can keep things tight when the crowd’s behind them.
Ajax have a slight edge in shutting out opponents, but Marseille’s home clean sheets give them a fighting chance here.
Ajax love to hog the ball, but Marseille’s high press could disrupt that rhythm, especially with the Vélodrome roaring.
Both sides rack up corners, with Ajax slightly ahead. Expect around 10–12 total corners in a game with attacking intent from both.
Marseille’s aggressive press leads to a few more bookings. This one could see 3–5 yellows with the intensity of a European night.
Ajax pepper the goal a bit more, but Marseille’s home shot volume is no joke. Expect both keepers to be tested.
Ajax create slightly better chances but also face less danger at the back. Marseille’s home xG should rise with crowd support.
Both teams are tidy from set pieces, scoring around one every two games. A corner or free-kick goal feels likely.
Ajax’s crisp passing keeps them in control, but Marseille’s high work rate in tackles could force turnovers in dangerous areas.
Both teams spread their goals evenly, so expect action in both halves, with Marseille’s second-half push at home a key factor.
Marseille’s home games often go over 2.5, and Ajax’s attacking output suggests this could be a lively one.
Ajax just shade the points average, but Marseille’s home form evens things up for this clash.
Marseille at home: Four wins from five at the Vélodrome (80% win rate), scoring 2.4 goals per game, conceding 0.8, with three clean sheets. The hosts are a force with the crowd behind them.
Ajax away: Three wins and three draws from six away games (50% win rate), scoring 1.5 goals per game, conceding 1.0, with two clean sheets. Solid but not unbeatable on the road.
Goals Against (per game)
Ajax’s attack slightly outpaces Marseille’s, but the hosts’ home scoring rate (2.4) could test Ajax’s tidy defence. Marseille’s back line needs to stay sharp against Ajax’s quick counters.
xG Against (per game)
Ajax edge the xG battle with 1.75 for / 1.02 against, compared to Marseille’s 1.62 for / 1.18 against. The hosts’ home crowd could boost their chance creation, but Ajax’s quality in the final third looks dangerous.
These two have a history of goals galore. Back in November 2023, Marseille edged a 4-3 thriller at the Vélodrome in the Europa League, with both sides trading blows. The reverse leg in September 2023 ended 3-3 in Amsterdam, a proper end-to-end scrap. In 2019, Ajax took a 2-1 win at home, but Marseille hit back 3-1 in France. Their last meeting, a 2010 Europa League tie, saw Marseille nick a 2-1 home win to progress on aggregate. Four of the last five have seen both teams score, averaging 4.25 goals per game.
Marseille’s home form and crowd energy give them an edge, but Ajax’s slick passing and counter-attacking threat make this tight. The hosts’ high press should create chances, but injuries at the back could cost them. Ajax’s missing forwards limit their punch, but their midfield control keeps them in it. History points to goals, and we expect both sides to find the net in a lively Vélodrome atmosphere.
Prediction: 2–1 home win.
Main pick: BTTS — Both teams have scored in four of their last five meetings, and current form (Marseille 1.78 GF, Ajax 1.90 GF) backs it up.
Value angle: Over 2.5 Goals — Marseille’s home games hit over 2.5 in 56% of cases, and Ajax’s attacking output plus their head-to-head history suggests a high-scoring game.
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Who will win Marseille vs Ajax?
We’re backing Marseille to edge it, thanks to their home form. Our call is a 2–1 home win.
What is the best bet in the Marseille vs Ajax game?
BTTS is the main pick; a value alternative is Over 2.5 Goals.
What time does Marseille vs Ajax kick off in the UK?
Tuesday, 30 September 2025. Check final TV listings for the confirmed UK kick-off time.
Where is Marseille vs Ajax being played?
At the Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, France.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Marseille and Ajax?
Marseille are unbeaten in four (3W-1D), with a 4-3 win in 2023, a 3-3 draw in 2023, and wins in 2019 (3-1) and 2010 (2-1). Ajax won 2-1 at home in 2019.
Who has the better form going into Marseille vs Ajax?
Ajax are 6–3–1 in their last 10; Marseille are 5–2–3. Marseille’s home form gives them a slight edge.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Marseille vs Ajax?
2–1 to Marseille.
Who has the better xG in Marseille vs Ajax?
Ajax lead slightly: 1.75 xG for / 1.02 xGA versus Marseille’s 1.62 / 1.18.
Will BTTS land in the Marseille vs Ajax game?
Model probability is 65%.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Marseille vs Ajax game?
Leaning to Over 2.5 Goals, given the 56% and 50% frequency for Marseille and Ajax, plus their high-scoring history.