Chelsea vs Benfica | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 30 September 2025
Chelsea are in top form, sitting third in the Premier League after a 2-1 win over Tottenham on September 28, with Cole Palmer pulling the strings. Benfica, leading the Primeira Liga, come off a 3-0 rout of Porto and are unbeaten in their last 10. Chelsea will likely line up in a 4-2-3-1, leaning on quick transitions and wing play. Benfica’s 4-3-3 will focus on high pressing and clinical finishing. Chelsea have Levi Colwill doubtful and Romeo Lavia suspended; Benfica are without David Neres and have a centre-back doubtful. This is a clash of attacking flair, with Chelsea’s new-look squad facing Benfica’s slick counter-attacking style. The Stamford Bridge roar could be key.
- Possession & channels: Chelsea average 56% possession, with 42% of attacks down the left. Benfica hold 59% and channel 40% through central areas.
- Pressing intensity: Benfica’s 16.2 tackles per game show a relentless press, while Chelsea’s 15.7 tackles and 12.0 interceptions mean they’ll look to nick the ball high and break fast.
- Set-piece threat: Chelsea score 0.5 set-piece goals per game; Benfica are at 0.4. Both concede around 0.3, so dead balls could swing it.
Chelsea last 10: 6–3–1, goals 21 for / 8 against, clean sheets 4. The Blues are hitting their stride, with their new signings gelling and the attack firing.
Benfica last 10: 8–2–0, goals 22 for / 6 against, clean sheets 5. The Eagles are soaring, with a rock-solid defence and lethal finishing.
Both teams are banging in goals, with Benfica slightly ahead. Chelsea’s home attack, led by Palmer, could test Benfica’s back line.
Benfica’s defence is tighter, but Chelsea’s back line is solid at home.
Benfica edge the clean sheet stats, but Chelsea’s home form makes them tough to breach.
Benfica love to control the ball, but Chelsea’s high press, led by Enzo Fernández, could disrupt their flow.
Both sides generate plenty of corners, with Chelsea slightly ahead at home. Expect around 10–12 total corners in an open game.
Both teams play with bite, so expect 3–5 yellows in a feisty European clash.
Chelsea’s shot volume is high at home, while Benfica’s accuracy keeps them dangerous. Both keepers will be busy.
Benfica edge the xG battle, creating slightly better chances while facing less danger. Chelsea’s home xG should rise with crowd support.
Chelsea are lethal from set pieces, while Benfica are solid but less prolific. A corner or free-kick goal is likely.
Benfica’s slick passing keeps them in control, but Chelsea’s tackling intensity could force turnovers in dangerous areas.
Both teams spread their goals fairly evenly, with Chelsea’s second-half push at home a key factor.
Chelsea’s home games often go over 2.5, and Benfica’s attacking output suggests this could be a lively one.
Benfica’s domestic dominance gives them a points edge, but Chelsea’s home form evens things up.
Chelsea at home: Five wins from six at Stamford Bridge (83% win rate), scoring 2.5 goals per game, conceding 0.7, with three clean sheets. The Blues are a fortress at home.
Benfica away: Four wins and two draws from six away games (67% win rate), scoring 1.9 goals per game, conceding 0.8, with three clean sheets. Strong but not unbeatable on the road.
Goals Against (per game)
Benfica’s attack slightly outpaces Chelsea’s, but the Blues’ home scoring rate (2.5) could test Benfica’s tight defence. Chelsea’s back line needs to stay sharp against Benfica’s quick counters.
xG Against (per game)
Benfica consistently create high-quality chances at 2.10 xG per game, while restricting opponents to 0.80 xGA. Chelsea post 2.05 xG and 0.90 xGA, showing a tight contest in chance creation.
These two have a rich Champions League history. In the 2012/13 quarter-finals, Chelsea won 2-1 at home on April 4, 2012, and 1-0 away on March 27, 2012, advancing on aggregate. In the 2012/13 Europa League final on May 15, 2013, Chelsea won 2-1 in Amsterdam. Their last meetings, in the 2006/07 Champions League, saw Chelsea win 1-0 at home on April 10, 2007, and draw 1-1 away on April 3, 2007. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last five, with both teams scoring in two.
Chelsea’s home form, with Cole Palmer and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens leading the attack, gives them a slight edge. Benfica’s counter-attacking threat and defensive solidity make this a close call, but their missing winger and doubtful centre-back could hurt. Chelsea’s injury concerns, with Levi Colwill doubtful and Romeo Lavia out, might expose them, but the Stamford Bridge crowd and their attacking depth should tip the scales. History favors Chelsea, but Benfica’s form suggests they’ll nick a goal in a tight, entertaining match.
Prediction: 2–1 home win.
Main pick: BTTS — Both teams have scored in two of their last five meetings, and current form (Chelsea 2.10 GF, Benfica 2.20 GF) backs it up.
Value angle: Cole Palmer Anytime Goalscorer — His central role and home scoring form (key in recent wins) make him a strong bet to find the net.
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Who will win Chelsea vs Benfica?
We’re backing Chelsea to edge it, thanks to their home form. Our call is a 2–1 home win.
What is the best bet in the Chelsea vs Benfica game?
BTTS is the main pick; a value alternative is Cole Palmer Anytime Goalscorer.
What time does Chelsea vs Benfica kick off in the UK?
Tuesday, 30 September 2025, at 8:00 PM BST. Check final TV listings for confirmation.
Where is Chelsea vs Benfica being played?
At the Stamford Bridge, London, England.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Chelsea and Benfica?
Chelsea won 2-1 at home and 1-0 away in 2012 Champions League, and 2-1 in the 2013 Europa League final. They also won 1-0 at home and drew 1-1 away in 2007 Champions League.
Who has the better form going into Chelsea vs Benfica?
Benfica are 8–2–0 in their last 10; Chelsea are 6–3–1. Chelsea’s home form gives them a slight edge.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Chelsea vs Benfica?
2–1 to Chelsea.
Who has the better xG in Chelsea vs Benfica?
Benfica lead: 2.10 xG for / 0.80 xGA versus Chelsea’s 2.05 / 0.90.
Will BTTS land in the Chelsea vs Benfica game?
Model probability is 55%.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Chelsea vs Benfica game?
Leaning to Over 2.5 Goals, given the 55% and 50% frequency for Chelsea and Benfica, plus their attacking form.