Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 5 October 2025
Newcastle are in fine fettle, unbeaten in their last six at home and coming off a 4-0 Champions League thrashing of Union Saint-Gilloise. Eddie Howe’s side are eyeing a top-six push, but he’s wary of Forest’s counter-attacking threat after their recent Europa League drama. Forest, under new boss Ange Postecoglou, are under pressure after a 3-2 European loss and a 1-0 defeat to Brentford, with injuries piling up. Newcastle’s likely 4-3-3 will dominate the ball around 52%, looking to stretch play wide, while Forest’s 4-2-3-1 will sit deep and spring forward on the break. With Newcastle dominating recent head-to-heads, this is a chance for the Magpies to keep their home fortress intact against a Forest side desperate to turn their season around.
- Possession edge: Newcastle’s 52% possession average dwarfs Forest’s 41%, with the Magpies building through central and wide channels, while Forest rely on quick transitions.
- Defensive intensity: Newcastle’s 16.5 tackles and 9.8 interceptions per game show their aggressive press, compared to Forest’s 15.0 tackles and 8.5 interceptions, which suggests a tight midfield battle.
- Set-piece threat: Newcastle score 0.5 set-piece goals per game, a weapon at home, while Forest’s lack of data hides potential vulnerabilities seen in recent high-xGA games.
Newcastle last 10: 5–3–2, goals 15 for / 7 against, clean sheets 5. Newcastle have been rock-solid at home, with recent wins showing their attacking flair, though draws against top sides highlight a need for clinical finishing.
Nottingham Forest last 10: 3–3–3, goals 12 for / 15 against, clean sheets 2. Forest’s form is patchy, with home wins but heavy away losses and a leaky defence under pressure.
Newcastle’s 1.8 goals per game reflects their attacking threat, especially at home. Forest’s 1.33 shows they can nick goals but struggle for consistency away.
Newcastle’s defence is tight, especially at St James’ Park, conceding just 0.67 in recent league games. Forest’s 1.67 average highlights their defensive woes, particularly on the road.
Newcastle’s 50% clean sheet rate shows their defensive solidity at home. Forest’s 22.2% reflects their struggle to keep opponents out, especially against top sides.
Newcastle control the ball at home, while Forest’s low possession suits their counter-attacking style but leaves them vulnerable against dominant sides.
Newcastle’s games see plenty of corners, averaging 10.2 total, driven by their attacking play. Forest’s data is missing, but expect 9–11 corners in this match given Newcastle’s home pressure.
Both sides are physical, with Forest edging bookings due to their high-line defending. Expect 3–5 yellow cards in a competitive clash.
Newcastle’s higher shot volume reflects their attacking intent at home. Forest’s numbers are solid but drop off in tough away games.
Newcastle’s 1.7 xG shows they create quality chances, while their 1.0 xGA reflects a solid defence. Forest’s 1.2 xG and high 1.8 xGA highlight their vulnerability against stronger sides.
Newcastle’s set-piece prowess is a key weapon, especially at home. Forest’s lack of data hides their potential, but recent games suggest defensive issues at corners.
Newcastle’s crisp passing and high defensive work rate give them control. Forest’s lower accuracy and tackling reflect their reactive approach.
Newcastle score more after the break, with 55% of goals in the second half. Forest’s timing is unclear, but recent games show early and late concessions.
Newcastle’s home games are often tight, with 67% under 2.5 goals. Forest’s matches are more open, with over 2.5 landing in over half their games.
Newcastle’s 1.67 points per game shows their consistency, especially at home. Forest’s 1.17 reflects their struggle to string results together.
Newcastle at home: Unbeaten in their last six league games at St James’ Park, with four wins and two draws, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.5 per game. Their home ground is a fortress.
Nottingham Forest away: One win, one draw, and two losses from four away games, scoring 0.75 and conceding 2.5 per game. Heavy defeats highlight their road struggles.
Goals Against (per game)
Newcastle’s attack outpaces Forest’s, and their solid home defence faces a leaky Forest backline. Set-pieces could be key for the hosts.
xG Against (per game)
Newcastle’s 1.7 xG per game shows they create quality chances, while their 1.0 xGA reflects a tight defence. Forest’s 1.2 xG and 1.8 xGA highlight their struggle against stronger sides.
Newcastle have bossed recent meetings, winning four of the last five. They thumped Forest 3-1 at home in February 2025 and 3-0 in April 2024, also winning 3-1 away in September 2023 and 2-1 at home in May 2023. The only blemish was a 1-1 draw at the City Ground in September 2024. These games average 2.8 goals, with Forest struggling to score at St James’ Park.
Newcastle’s home form, set-piece edge, and head-to-head dominance make them favourites. Eddie Howe’s side should control the ball and create better chances, while Forest’s high-line defending under Ange Postecoglou could be exposed. Forest’s counter threat might keep it close, but injuries and recent losses tilt the balance.
Prediction: 2–0 home win.
Main pick: Newcastle United to Win — Newcastle’s unbeaten home run and Forest’s poor away form (0.75 goals scored, 2.5 conceded) make this a strong choice.
Value angle: Under 2.5 Goals — Newcastle’s home games are often tight (67% under 2.5), and Forest’s struggles at St James’ Park suggest a low-scoring affair.
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Who will win Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?
We’re backing Newcastle to take the points, given their strong home form and Forest’s struggles away. Our call is a 2–0 home win.
What is the best bet in the Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest game?
Newcastle United to Win is the main pick; a value bet is Under 2.5 Goals with a 67% frequency in Newcastle’s home games.
What time does Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest kick off in the UK?
Sunday, 5 October 2025. Check final TV listings for the confirmed UK kick-off time.
Where is Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest being played?
At St James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, England.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest?
Newcastle won 3-1 at home in February 2025 and 3-0 in April 2024, also winning 3-1 away in September 2023 and 2-1 at home in May 2023. A 1-1 draw came at the City Ground in September 2024.
Who has the better form going into Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?
Newcastle are 5–3–2 across their last 10, while Forest are 3–3–3. Newcastle’s home strength gives them the edge.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?
2–0 to Newcastle United.
Who has the better xG in Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest?
Newcastle lead with 1.7 xG for / 1.0 xGA compared to Forest’s 1.2 xG for / 1.8 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest game?
Model probability is 50%.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Newcastle United vs Nottingham Forest game?
Leaning to Under 2.5 Goals, given Newcastle’s 67% under rate at home and Forest’s struggles at St James’ Park.