Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 5 October 2025
Celta Vigo are desperate to turn draws into wins, having shared the points in five of their last seven league games. Their recent 3-1 Europa League win over PAOK has lifted spirits, but injuries are a headache for boss Claudio Giráldez. Atletico Madrid, managed by Diego Simeone, are flying after three straight wins, including a 5-2 battering of Real Madrid. This one’s a classic: Celta’s flair at home against Atleti’s grit. The hosts will likely set up in a 4-3-3, looking to stretch play wide, while Atleti’s 3-5-2 will aim to suffocate the midfield and hit on the break. Balaídos will be lively, with Atleti’s away support adding to the noise.
- Midfield control: Atletico average 57.9% possession and lean on central overloads, with 45% of their attacks funnelling through the middle. Celta’s 52.9% share suggests they’ll compete but may cede ground.
- Set-piece threat: Celta score 0.29 set-piece goals per game but concede 0.43; Atleti net 0.57 and allow 0.29, so dead balls could be decisive.
- Pressing intensity: Atleti’s 6.9 interceptions per game show they disrupt high up, while Celta’s 13.1 tackles indicate a scrappy, combative approach in their own half.
Celta Vigo last 9: 1–5–3, goals 9 for / 11 against, 0 clean sheets. They’re stuck in a rut of draws, with five in seven league games, and haven’t kept a clean sheet all season. Their attack clicks more after the break, with two-thirds of goals in the second half.
Atletico Madrid last 10: 6–3–1, goals 20 for / 13 against, 1 clean sheet. They’re in top nick, banging in goals left, right, and centre, especially at home. Their away form is less convincing, with no league wins on the road yet.
Atleti edge the ball share, which suits their knack for controlling games through the middle. Celta hold their own but might struggle to dictate tempo against a side that loves to choke possession.
Atleti are peppering keepers with nearly 14 shots a game, almost 6 on target. Celta’s 10.3 shots aren’t bad, but their 4.1 on target suggests they need to be sharper to trouble Atleti’s backline.
Both sides rack up decent corner counts, with Atleti just ahead. Expect around 10-12 corners in this one, with Atleti’s slight edge in possession likely earning them a few more.
Atleti’s feisty style sees them pick up more cards, averaging 1.57 per game. Celta are tidier at 1.14. This could be a niggly game, with 2-3 yellows likely given the stakes and physicality.
Atleti are lethal from set pieces, netting 0.57 per game, while Celta leak 0.43. This mismatch could be a game-changer, especially with Atleti’s knack for capitalising on dead balls.
Both teams are crisp with the ball, hitting 84.5% pass completion. Celta edge tackles, showing they dig in deeper, but Atleti’s 6.9 interceptions highlight their knack for cutting out moves early.
Celta come alive after the break, with two-thirds of their goals in the second half. Atleti are more balanced but still lean slightly to late strikes. Expect a cagey first half and more action after the interval.
Celta’s games are usually tight, with just 14% hitting over 2.5 goals. Atleti’s attacking output pushes 57% of their matches over, so this could swing either way depending on who controls the tempo.
Atleti’s 1.71 points per game reflect their strong form, while Celta’s 0.71 shows their struggle to convert draws into wins. This gap underlines Atleti’s edge going in.
Celta Vigo at home: 0–3–1 from four league games, scoring 3 and conceding 4, no clean sheets. They’re hard to beat at Balaídos but lack the killer instinct to turn draws into wins.
Atletico Madrid away: 0–2–1 from three league games, scoring 3 and conceding 3, no clean sheets. They’re yet to win on the road in La Liga, which gives Celta a glimmer of hope.
Goals Against (per game)
Atleti’s attack is firing at 2.00 goals per game, double Celta’s 1.00. Both sides leak 1.29 goals on average, so this could be an open game if Celta find their shooting boots.
xG Against (per game)
Atleti create better chances at 1.71 xG per game compared to Celta’s 0.97. They also face less danger, with 1.00 xGA against Celta’s 1.28, showing a clear quality gap.
Atletico have dominated recent clashes. They thumped Celta 4-1 at home in May 2025 and won 2-1 there in May 2024. Celta managed a 1-1 draw at Balaídos in December 2024, but Atleti won 1-3 there in November 2023 and 1-0 at home in April 2023. Atleti’s physicality and set-piece edge have often been the difference.
Celta’s home grit and recent Europa League boost give them a chance to nick something, but Atleti’s firepower and midfield control look too strong. The visitors’ set-piece prowess and better xG profile should see them edge it, though Celta’s second-half spark could keep it tight.
Prediction: 1–2 away win.
Main pick: Atletico Madrid to Win — their 1.71 xG and 2.00 goals per game outweigh Celta’s 0.97 xG and draw-heavy form.
Value angle: BTTS — both teams score in 67% of scenarios per our model, with Celta’s home threat and Atleti’s leaky away defence (1.29 goals conceded).
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Who will win Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?
We’re backing Atletico Madrid to edge it, with a predicted 1–2 away win.
What is the best bet in the Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid game?
Atletico Madrid to Win is our main pick; BTTS offers value at 67% likelihood.
What time does Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid kick off in the UK?
Sunday, 5 October 2025. Check final TV listings for the confirmed UK kick-off time.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid being played?
At the Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo, Spain.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Celta Vigo and Atletico Madrid?
Atletico won 4-1 (May 2025, home), drew 1-1 (Dec 2024, away), won 2-1 (May 2024, home), won 1-3 (Nov 2023, away), and won 1-0 (Apr 2023, home).
Who has the better form going into Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico are stronger at 6–3–1 (last 10) versus Celta’s 1–5–3.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?
1–2 to Atletico Madrid.
Who has the best xG in Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico lead with 1.71 xG for / 1.00 xGA versus Celta’s 0.97 / 1.28.
Will BTTS land in the Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid game?
Our model gives a 67% chance of both teams scoring.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid game?
Atletico’s 57% over 2.5 rate suggests a chance of goals, but Celta’s 86% under rate leans toward a tighter game.