Finland vs Lithuania | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 9 October 2025
Finland are scrapping for a World Cup qualifying lifeline, sitting third in Group G after a big win over Poland snapped a rough patch. Manager Jacob Friis, still in charge as of his Oct 4 presser, is banking on home form to keep their hopes alive, despite an injury-hit squad. Lithuania, rock bottom after four straight losses, showed fight in a draw against Finland earlier this year but are up against it with a depleted side. The hosts likely line up in a 4-4-2, pressing high and using wide runners to create, while the visitors’ 4-2-3-1 will focus on soaking pressure and countering. The Helsinki faithful will make this a cauldron, with Lithuania’s fans hoping for a rare upset.
- Possession battle: The hosts average 48.5% possession, often building through central channels, while the visitors’ 42% sees them lean on quick wing play for 35% of attacks.
- Set-piece vulnerability: The visitors concede 0.45 set-piece goals per game compared to the hosts’ 0.40, while Finland score 0.20 to Lithuania’s 0.15—dead balls could be decisive.
- Pressing intensity: The hosts’ 12.5 tackles per game show a scrappy approach, while the visitors’ 4.2 interceptions suggest they’ll try to nick the ball and break fast.
Finland last 10: 3–1–6, goals 9 for / 18 against, 1 clean sheet. The hosts have been inconsistent but got a massive boost from a 2-1 win over Poland. They tend to score more after the break, showing resilience.
Lithuania last 10: 1–2–7, goals 4 for / 21 against, 1 clean sheet. The visitors are struggling, with just one win and a leaky defence, though a draw against Finland offers some hope.
The hosts’ slight possession edge should help them control the game at home, while the visitors will likely sit deep and look to counter.
The hosts generate more shots, especially on target, which could test Lithuania’s shaky defence. The visitors need to be clinical with fewer chances.
The hosts earn more corners, reflecting their attacking intent. Expect around 7-9 corners total, with Finland likely pushing for set-piece chances.
The visitors’ higher booking rate could lead to a scrappy game, with 3-5 yellows likely as Finland’s press forces tough tackles.
The hosts’ better xG numbers suggest they’ll create more chances, while Lithuania’s high xGA could see them exposed at the back.
Both sides are vulnerable from set pieces, but the hosts’ slight edge in scoring could be key in a tight game.
The hosts’ better passing and tackle count give them an edge in controlling play and winning the ball back. Lithuania’s lower accuracy could see them struggle under pressure.
Both teams score more after the break, with Lithuania especially reliant on late goals. A cagey first half could lead to a lively second.
The hosts’ games are evenly split for goals, while Lithuania’s lean under 2.5, suggesting a potentially tight affair unless Finland’s attack clicks.
The hosts’ better points tally reflects their stronger form, while Lithuania’s struggles highlight their underdog status.
Finland at home: 3–0–2 from 5 competitive games, scoring 7 and conceding 6, with 1 clean sheet. The hosts are tough to beat at Olympic Stadium, with recent wins showing their bite.
Lithuania away: 0–1–4 from 5 competitive games, scoring 3 and conceding 12, with 0 clean sheets. The visitors have been woeful on the road, leaking goals regularly.
Goals Against (per game)
xG Against (per game)
Finland generate nearly 1.0 xG per game and face 1.65 xGA, showing a decent chance creation edge. Lithuania’s 0.60 xG and 2.00 xGA highlight their struggle to create and defend.
The hosts have dominated recent meetings, winning 1-0 in June 2019, 4-0 in November 2011, 2-0 in September 2011, and 2-1 in March 2007, all in qualifiers or friendlies. The visitors managed a 2-2 draw in March 2025 at home, showing they can compete, but Finland’s home record against Lithuania is strong.
The hosts’ better form, home advantage, and stronger xG profile make them favourites. The visitors’ defensive frailties and injury issues could see them struggle, though their draw in March shows some grit. Expect Finland to control and convert, with Lithuania possibly nicking a goal.
Prediction: 2–1 home win.
Main pick: Finland to Win — their 0.95 xG, home form, and Lithuania’s 0.40 points per game tilt the scales heavily.
Value angle: BTTS — a 40% model likelihood, with Lithuania scoring in their last meeting and Finland’s occasional defensive lapses.
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Who will win Finland vs Lithuania?
We lean toward the hosts, with a predicted 2–1 home win given their stronger form and home advantage.
What is the best bet in the Finland vs Lithuania game?
Finland to Win is our main pick; BTTS offers value at 40% likelihood.
What time does Finland vs Lithuania kick off in the UK?
Thursday, 9 October 2025, expected around 19:45 BST (check final TV listings for confirmation).
Where is Finland vs Lithuania being played?
At Olympic Stadium, Helsinki, Finland.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Finland and Lithuania?
Finland won 1-0 (Jun 2019, neutral), 4-0 (Nov 2011, home), 2-0 (Sep 2011, away), and 2-1 (Mar 2007, home); Lithuania drew 2-2 (Mar 2025, home).
Who has the better form going into Finland vs Lithuania?
Finland are stronger at 3–1–6 (9–18) versus Lithuania’s 1–2–7 (4–21) over the last 10 games.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Finland vs Lithuania?
2–1 to Finland.
Who has the best xG in Finland vs Lithuania?
Finland lead with 0.95 xG for / 1.65 xGA versus Lithuania’s 0.60 xG for / 2.00 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the Finland vs Lithuania game?
Our model gives a 40% chance of both teams scoring.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Finland vs Lithuania game?
Finland’s 50% and Lithuania’s 40% over 2.5 rates suggest a tight game, likely under 2.5 goals.