Austria vs San Marino | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 9 October 2025
Austria are flying high, topping Group H and unbeaten in their last eight qualifiers, with a 4-0 thrashing of San Marino in June setting the tone. Manager Ralf Rangnick, confirmed in role via his Oct 5 presser, is pushing for a statement win despite injury concerns. San Marino, winless in 20 and bottom of the group, are battling for pride with a heavily depleted squad under interim boss Edgaras Jankauskas, per his Oct 7 comments. The hosts will likely deploy a 4-2-3-1, dominating possession and stretching play with wide runners, while the visitors’ 5-4-1 will focus on parking the bus and hoping for a rare counter. The Vienna faithful will demand goals in this David vs Goliath clash.
- Possession dominance: The hosts average 63.8% possession, funnelling 45% of attacks through central channels, while the visitors’ 36% sees them rely on rare wing breaks.
- Set-piece threat: The hosts score 0.30 set-piece goals per game and concede 0.20, while the visitors leak 0.60, making corners a big weapon for Austria.
- Shot volume: The hosts fire 16.9 shots per game (5.5 on target), dwarfing the visitors’ 5.5 (1.5 on target), showing a clear attacking gulf.
Austria last 10: 5–4–1, goals 17 for / 7 against, 4 clean sheets. The hosts are in top shape, unbeaten in eight and with a knack for controlling games at home.
San Marino last 10: 0–1–9, goals 2 for / 30 against, 0 clean sheets. The visitors are struggling, with no wins and a defence that’s been breached heavily.
The hosts’ possession dominance should pin San Marino back, leaving the visitors chasing shadows for long spells.
Austria’s high shot volume could overwhelm San Marino’s defence, while the visitors’ low output suggests they’ll struggle to test the home keeper.
The hosts’ attacking pressure should yield 8-10 corners, with San Marino likely limited to 1-3. Expect around 8-12 corners total.
San Marino’s higher booking rate could see 3-5 yellows, as Austria’s press forces desperate challenges.
Austria’s strong xG numbers highlight their attacking threat, while San Marino’s high xGA shows their defensive frailty.
The hosts’ set-piece prowess could exploit San Marino’s weakness, making corners and free-kicks a key battleground.
Austria’s crisp passing and high work rate should control the game, while San Marino’s lower accuracy and effort could see them overrun.
Austria score evenly across halves, while San Marino’s rare goals come late, suggesting the hosts could strike early and often.
San Marino’s games often go over 2.5 due to heavy losses, while Austria’s tighter defence suggests a high-scoring game is likely.
Austria’s strong points tally reflects their dominance, while San Marino’s near-zero average underscores their struggle.
Austria at home: 4–1–0 from 5 competitive games, scoring 11 and conceding 3, with 3 clean sheets. The hosts are a fortress at Ernst-Happel-Stadion, with no losses in qualifiers.
San Marino away: 0–1–4 from 5 competitive games, scoring 1 and conceding 13, with 0 clean sheets. The visitors have been outclassed on the road, with no wins in sight.
Goals Against (per game)
xG Against (per game)
Austria generate a solid 1.68 xG per game and face just 0.90 xGA, showing their all-round quality. San Marino’s 0.40 xG and 2.50 xGA underline their struggle to create or defend.
Austria have dominated recent meetings, thrashing San Marino 4-0 away in June 2025, 7-0 at home in April 1999, and 4-1 at home in October 1996. The visitors managed a 1-4 loss at home in October 1998 and a 0-1 defeat in September 1995. Austria’s home games against San Marino have been particularly one-sided, with 11 goals scored in two matches.
Austria’s dominant form, home strength, and superior xG profile make them overwhelming favourites. San Marino’s injury-hit squad and dismal away record suggest they’ll be outclassed, with little chance of scoring. Expect a comfortable win, with the hosts likely piling on goals.
Prediction: 5–0 home win.
Main pick: Austria -4 Handicap — Austria should hammer San Marino.
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Who will win Austria vs San Marino?
We lean heavily toward the hosts, with a predicted 5–0 home win given their dominant form and San Marino’s struggles.
What is the best bet in the Austria vs San Marino game?
Austria -4 Handicap is our main pick
What time does Austria vs San Marino kick off in the UK?
Thursday, 9 October 2025, expected around 19:45 BST (check final TV listings for confirmation).
Where is Austria vs San Marino being played?
At Ernst-Happel-Stadion, Vienna, Austria.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Austria and San Marino?
Austria won 4-0 (Jun 2025, away), 7-0 (Apr 1999, home), 4-1 (Oct 1996, home); San Marino lost 1-4 (Oct 1998, home) and 0-1 (Sep 1995, home).
Who has the better form going into Austria vs San Marino?
Austria are far stronger at 5–4–1 (17–7) versus San Marino’s 0–1–9 (2–30) over the last 10 games.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Austria vs San Marino?
5–0 to Austria.
Who has the best xG in Austria vs San Marino?
Austria lead with 1.68 xG for / 0.90 xGA versus San Marino’s 0.40 xG for / 2.50 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the Austria vs San Marino game?
Our model gives a 20% chance of both teams scoring.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Austria vs San Marino game?
San Marino’s 60% over 2.5 rate and Austria’s attacking form lean toward over 2.5 goals.