France vs Azerbaijan | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 10 October 2025
France, top of Group D, are in fine form after a 4-0 thrashing of Azerbaijan and a 2-1 win over Iceland, with manager Didier Deschamps praising their “solid foundations” on Oct 5, though injuries loom. Azerbaijan, third after a 1-1 draw with Ukraine, have manager Arif Asadov calling for “resilience” on Oct 6, despite a depleted squad. The hosts will likely deploy a 4-2-3-1, dominating possession and pressing high, while the visitors’ 4-4-2 will sit deep and look to counter. The Stade de France will be rocking, but Azerbaijan’s fans will try to make their presence felt.
- Possession dominance: France’s 62% possession dwarfs Azerbaijan’s 40%, with 45% of attacks through central channels versus the visitors’ 30% down the flanks.
- Set-piece threat: France score 0.30 set-piece goals per game, while Azerbaijan concede 0.40, suggesting dead balls could be decisive.
- Shot volume: France’s 16.0 shots (6.0 on target) far outpace Azerbaijan’s 9.0 (3.0 on target), showing a clear attacking edge.
France last 10: 7–2–1, goals 21 for / 6 against, 5 clean sheets. The hosts are in top nick, with a strong run and clinical finishing against weaker sides.
Azerbaijan last 10: 1–3–6, goals 5 for / 23 against, 2 clean sheets. The visitors are struggling, with one win and heavy losses against stronger teams.
France’s high possession will likely pin Azerbaijan back, but the visitors’ compact block could frustrate early attacks.
France’s shot volume could overwhelm Azerbaijan’s defence, especially given their high xG.
France may earn 6-8 corners, with Azerbaijan likely getting 2-4, totaling around 8-12 corners.
Azerbaijan’s higher booking rate suggests a scrappy game, with 3-5 yellows likely as they defend deep.
France’s superior xG and low xGA highlight their attacking and defensive strength, while Azerbaijan’s numbers show defensive frailties.
France’s set-piece threat could exploit Azerbaijan’s vulnerability, potentially deciding the game.
France’s crisp passing and work rate could dominate, but Azerbaijan’s defensive grit might keep them in it.
Both teams score more after the break, suggesting a tight first half could open up later.
France’s high-scoring games suggest a lively contest, but Azerbaijan’s low-scoring tendency could keep it in check.
France’s higher clean sheet rate could help them shut out Azerbaijan’s modest attack.
France’s strong points tally reflects their form, while Azerbaijan’s struggles limit their haul.
France at home: 4–0–0 from 4 competitive games, scoring 13 and conceding 2, with 3 clean sheets. The hosts are dominant at Stade de France.
Azerbaijan away: 0–1–2 from 3 competitive games, scoring 1 and conceding 7, with 0 clean sheets. The visitors struggle on the road.
Goals Against (per game)
xG Against (per game)
France consistently generate around 2.20 xG per game and face 0.70 xGA, showing a strong attacking and defensive edge. Azerbaijan’s 0.70 xG and 2.10 xGA suggest they’ll struggle to create chances.
France have dominated recent meetings: 2-0 (2016, Saint-Denis), 4-0 (2016, Baku), 2-0 (2012, Saint-Denis), 3-0 (2012, Baku), and 3-2 (2009, Baku). Azerbaijan’s lone goal in these games shows they can occasionally nick one, but France’s control is clear.
France’s superior xG, home dominance, and head-to-head record make them overwhelming favourites, despite injuries. Azerbaijan’s resilience and low-scoring games could keep it tight early, but the hosts’ attacking quality should shine. Expect a comfortable win with a likely clean sheet.
Prediction: 3–0 home win.
Main pick: Under 4.5 goals — France will win here easily, it’s a question of how many goals. We are playing sensibly as under 4.5 is attractively priced.
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Who will win France vs Azerbaijan?
We lean toward France, with a predicted 3–0 home win given their strong form and xG advantage.
What is the best bet in the France vs Azerbaijan game?
under 4.5 goals is our main pick.
What time does France vs Azerbaijan kick off in the UK?
Friday, 10 October 2025, expected around 20:00 BST (check final TV listings for confirmation).
Where is France vs Azerbaijan being played?
At Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France.
What are the recent head-to-head results between France and Azerbaijan?
France won 2-0 (2016, Saint-Denis), 4-0 (2016, Baku), 2-0 (2012, Saint-Denis), 3-0 (2012, Baku), 3-2 (2009, Baku).
Who has the better form going into France vs Azerbaijan?
France at 7–2–1 (21–6) outshine Azerbaijan’s 1–3–6 (5–23) over the last 10 games.
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for France vs Azerbaijan?
3–0 to France.
Who has the best xG in France vs Azerbaijan?
France lead with 2.20 xG for / 0.70 xGA versus Azerbaijan’s 0.70 xG for / 2.10 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the France vs Azerbaijan game?
Our model gives a 30% chance of both teams scoring.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the France vs Azerbaijan game?
France’s 60% over 2.5 rate and Azerbaijan’s 40% suggest a decent chance of over 2.5 goals, but we lean Under 4.5 Goals with France’s control.