Kosovo vs Slovenia | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 10 October 2025
Kosovo, fourth in Group I, are licking their wounds after a 0-3 loss to Switzerland and a 2-1 defeat to Slovenia in September, with manager Sandro De Rossi calling for “unity” on Oct 5, though injuries are a concern. Slovenia, top of the group after a 2-2 draw with Sweden and that 2-1 win over Kosovo, have manager Matjaž Kek praising their “character” on Oct 4, despite some squad issues. Kosovo will likely stick with a 4-2-3-1, looking to hit on the break, while Slovenia’s 4-4-2 will aim to control the midfield and use the flanks. The Pristina atmosphere will be electric, with Slovenia’s fans adding to the noise.
- Possession edge: Slovenia’s 50% possession just shades Kosovo’s 48%, with 35% of their attacks coming down the wings compared to Kosovo’s 30% through the middle.
- Set-piece battle: Both teams score 0.20 set-piece goals per game, but Slovenia concede fewer (0.15 vs Kosovo’s 0.20), suggesting dead balls could be pivotal.
- Shot volume: Kosovo’s 12.0 shots (4.0 on target) slightly outpace Slovenia’s 11.5 (3.5 on target), hinting at a tight attacking contest.
Kosovo last 10: 5–1–4, goals 18 for / 13 against, 3 clean sheets. The hosts have been decent, scoring well against weaker sides but struggling against top teams.
Slovenia last 10: 4–3–3, goals 10 for / 7 against, 3 clean sheets. The visitors are solid, with a knack for grinding out results even when not at their best.
Slovenia’s slight possession edge could see them control the tempo, but Kosovo’s home fight might disrupt their rhythm.
Kosovo’s slightly higher shot volume could test Slovenia’s defence, especially with their better xG.
Expect a close battle, with Kosovo earning 4-6 corners and Slovenia 4-7, totaling around 8-12 corners.
Similar booking rates suggest a competitive game, with 3-5 yellows likely as both sides scrap for control.
Kosovo’s higher xG could give them an attacking edge, but Slovenia’s tighter defence might keep things close.
Both teams are evenly matched on set pieces, but Slovenia’s slight defensive edge could be key.
Slovenia’s crisper passing and defensive work could give them control, but Kosovo’s grit keeps it tight.
Kosovo score more after the break, while Slovenia are balanced, suggesting a game that could open up late.
Kosovo’s higher-scoring games could push the total, but Slovenia’s defensive solidity might keep it tight.
Equal clean sheet rates suggest both defences are solid, but Kosovo’s attack could test Slovenia.
Kosovo’s slight points edge reflects their home form, while Slovenia’s consistency keeps them close.
Kosovo at home: 3–0–1 from 4 competitive games, scoring 8 and conceding 4, with 2 clean sheets. The hosts are tough to beat in Pristina.
Slovenia away: 1–2–1 from 4 competitive games, scoring 3 and conceding 3, with 1 clean sheet. The visitors are resilient but lack firepower on the road.
Goals Against (per game)
xG Against (per game)
Kosovo generate 1.40 xG per game and face 1.20 xGA, while Slovenia post 1.10 xG and a tighter 0.90 xGA, suggesting a competitive game with chances at both ends.
Recent meetings are tight: Kosovo won 1-0 (2020, Pristina) and 1-0 (2019, Pristina), Slovenia won 1-0 (2020, Ljubljana) and 2-1 (2018, Ljubljana), with a 1-1 draw (2019, Ljubljana). The sides are evenly matched, with goals often scarce.
Kosovo’s home form and higher xG give them a slight edge, but Slovenia’s defensive solidity and recent win over Kosovo make this a close call. Injuries on both sides could lead to a cautious game, but Kosovo’s attacking intent at home might tip it. Expect a tight, low-scoring battle.
Prediction: 1–0 home win.
Main pick: Kosovo to Win — Their 1.40 xG, 30% clean sheet rate, and strong home form make them slight favourites, priced at 10/11 with AK Bets.
Value angle: Under 2.5 Goals — Slovenia’s 70% under 2.5 rate and tight head-to-head history suggest a low-scoring game.
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Who will win Kosovo vs Slovenia?
We lean toward Kosovo, with a predicted 1–0 home win given their strong home form and xG advantage.
What is the best bet in the Kosovo vs Slovenia game?
Kosovo to Win is our main pick; Under 2.5 Goals offers value at 50% BTTS likelihood.
What time does Kosovo vs Slovenia kick off in the UK?
Friday, 10 October 2025, expected around 19:45 BST (check final TV listings for confirmation).
Where is Kosovo vs Slovenia being played?
At Pristina City Stadium, Pristina, Kosovo.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Kosovo and Slovenia?
Kosovo won 1-0 (2020, Pristina), 1-0 (2019, Pristina); Slovenia won 1-0 (2020, Ljubljana), 2-1 (2018, Ljubljana); drew 1-1 (2019, Ljubljana).
Who has the better form going into Kosovo vs Slovenia?
Kosovo at 5–1–4 (18–13) edge Slovenia’s 4–3–3 (10–7) over the last 10 games, with a slight points advantage (1.50 vs 1.40).
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Kosovo vs Slovenia?
1–0 to Kosovo.
Who has the best xG in Kosovo vs Slovenia?
Kosovo lead with 1.40 xG for / 1.20 xGA versus Slovenia’s 1.10 xG for / 0.90 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the Kosovo vs Slovenia game?
Our model gives a 50% chance of both teams scoring.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Kosovo vs Slovenia game?
Kosovo’s 50% over 2.5 rate and Slovenia’s 30% suggest a close call, but we lean Under 2.5 Goals with their tight head-to-head history.