Sweden vs Switzerland | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 10 October 2025
Sweden, second in Group G, come off a 2-0 win over Kosovo and a 1-1 draw with Slovenia, with manager Jon Dahl Tomasson noting “progress” on Oct 7, though injuries are a concern. Switzerland, top of the group after 3-0 and 4-0 wins over Slovenia and Kosovo, have manager Murat Yakin praising their “clean sheet mentality” on Oct 4, despite squad issues. Sweden will likely use a 4-2-3-1, leaning on possession and wing play, while Switzerland’s 4-3-3 will focus on quick transitions and a high press. Friends Arena will be rocking, with Swiss fans adding to the atmosphere.
- Possession battle: Switzerland’s 58% possession edges Sweden’s 55%, with 40% of their attacks down the flanks compared to Sweden’s 35% through central channels.
- Set-piece edge: Sweden concede fewer set-piece goals (0.10 vs Switzerland’s 0.20), but both score 0.20 per game, making dead balls key.
- Shot volume: Sweden’s 13.0 shots (4.5 on target) slightly outpace Switzerland’s 12.5 (4.0 on target), hinting at a tight attacking contest.
Sweden last 10: 6–3–1, goals 15 for / 5 against, 6 clean sheets. The hosts are in strong form, with a solid defensive record and consistent scoring.
Switzerland last 10: 4–4–2, goals 15 for / 8 against, 3 clean sheets. The visitors are potent but have struggled against top sides recently.
Switzerland’s slight possession edge could control the tempo, but Sweden’s home fight might disrupt their rhythm.
Sweden’s slightly higher shot volume could test Switzerland’s defence, especially with their xG edge.
Sweden may edge 5-7 corners, with Switzerland likely getting 4-6, totaling around 9-12 corners.
Close booking rates suggest a competitive game, with 3-5 yellows likely as both sides vie for control.
Sweden’s better xG and tighter xGA suggest they create and concede fewer quality chances.
Sweden’s defensive set-piece edge could limit Switzerland’s chances from dead balls.
Switzerland’s crisper passing could give them control, but Sweden’s defensive work keeps it tight.
Both teams are balanced in scoring, suggesting goals could come at any point in a tight contest.
Switzerland’s slightly higher over 2.5 rate could push the total, but Sweden’s defensive solidity might keep it tight.
Sweden’s higher clean sheet rate could frustrate Switzerland’s attack.
Sweden’s better points tally reflects their form, but Switzerland’s recent wins keep it close.
Sweden at home: 3–1–0 from 4 competitive games, scoring 8 and conceding 1, with 3 clean sheets. The hosts are tough to beat at Friends Arena.
Switzerland away: 0–2–2 from 4 competitive games, scoring 1 and conceding 3, with 1 clean sheet. The visitors struggle for goals on the road.
Goals Against (per game)
xG Against (per game)
Sweden edge slightly with 1.60 xG per game and a tight 0.70 xGA, while Switzerland post 1.50 xG and 1.00 xGA, suggesting a competitive game with chances at both ends.
Recent meetings are tight: Sweden won 2-0 (2017, Solna), Switzerland won 1-0 (2017, Basel), 1-0 (2016, Basel), and 1-0 (2015, Solna), with a 1-1 draw (2019, Solna). Goals are often scarce, but both sides have had their moments.
Sweden’s home form, xG edge, and defensive solidity give them a slight advantage, but Switzerland’s recent wins and possession game make this close. Injuries on both sides could lead to a cautious, low-scoring battle. Expect Sweden to nick it with their home crowd behind them.
Prediction: 1–0 home win.
Main pick: Sweden to Win — Their 1.60 xG, 60% clean sheet rate, and strong home form make them favourites, priced at 10/11 with AK Bets.
Value angle: Under 2.5 Goals — Both teams’ low-scoring tendencies (Sweden 30% over, Switzerland 40%) and tight head-to-head history suggest a cagey game.
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Who will win Sweden vs Switzerland?
We lean toward Sweden, with a predicted 1–0 home win given their strong home form and xG advantage.
What is the best bet in the Sweden vs Switzerland game?
Sweden to Win is our main pick; Under 2.5 Goals offers value at 50% BTTS likelihood.
What time does Sweden vs Switzerland kick off in the UK?
Friday, 10 October 2025, expected around 19:45 BST (check final TV listings for confirmation).
Where is Sweden vs Switzerland being played?
At Friends Arena, Solna, Sweden.
What are the recent head-to-head results between Sweden and Switzerland?
Sweden won 2-0 (2017, Solna); Switzerland won 1-0 (2017, Basel), 1-0 (2016, Basel), 1-0 (2015, Solna); drew 1-1 (2019, Solna).
Who has the better form going into Sweden vs Switzerland?
Sweden at 6–3–1 (15–5) edge Switzerland’s 4–4–2 (15–8) over the last 10 games, with a better points average (1.80 vs 1.50).
What is the KickTheBookies prediction for Sweden vs Switzerland?
1–0 to Sweden.
Who has the best xG in Sweden vs Switzerland?
Sweden lead with 1.60 xG for / 0.70 xGA versus Switzerland’s 1.50 xG for / 1.00 xGA.
Will BTTS land in the Sweden vs Switzerland game?
Our model gives a 50% chance of both teams scoring.
Will we see over or under 2.5 goals in the Sweden vs Switzerland game?
Sweden’s 30% over 2.5 rate and Switzerland’s 40% suggest a strong chance of Under 2.5 Goals in a tight game.