PSG vs Bayern | Champions League Preview & Betting Tips | 4 November 2025

These sides know each other well from recent European battles and always serve up drama. PSG are relentless at home and will push a high line in their usual 4-3-3, while Bayern counter with pace and flair in a flexible 4-2-3-1. No fresh injury concerns flagged in the last few days, so full-strength squads likely. This one could swing on a moment of quality.

• Possession dominance: PSG average 65% and build patiently through the thirds; Bayern sit at 68% but prefer quick vertical passes.
• Set-piece edge: Both score around 0.9–1.0 per game from dead balls and concede just 0.2 — free-kicks and corners will be huge.
• Shot volume: PSG fire 18.0 shots (7.0 on target), Bayern 19.0 (7.5 on target) — expect a barrage from both ends.

PSG last 10: 8–1–1, goals 31 for / 7 against, clean sheets 5. A Monaco draw the lone slip; they’ve been clinical.

Bayern last 10: 9–1–0, goals 31 for / 7 against, clean sheets 5. Only a draw at Leverkusen blotted the copybook; otherwise ruthless.

PSG at home (last 10): 100% win rate, avg 3.6 scored / 0.5 conceded, 6 clean sheets. The Parc des Princes is a fortress — only two goals conceded in five.

Bayern away (last 10): 80% win rate, avg 2.8 scored / 0.9 conceded, 4 clean sheets. They travel strongly but have dropped points in two of the last five on the road.

Bayern edge chance creation at 2.6 xG per game, PSG close behind at 2.5. Both restrict opponents under 0.8 xGA — quality over quantity, but goals should flow.

Five meetings in the last five years — two wins each and a draw. Tight, high-stakes affairs every time.

PSG’s home record is brutal and their counter attack threat is lethal; Bayern have the pace to hurt on the break but will struggle to contain the Parisians in Paris. Expect the hosts to edge a thriller.

Prediction: 3–2 home win.

Main pick: PSG to win.

Value angle: BTTS Yes — 72% model confidence and history of both scoring in recent H2H.