Sturm Graz vs Nottingham Forest | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 6 November 2025

Sturm Graz are flying high domestically and fancy their chances at home in Europe, while Forest are grinding out results in the Prem and eyeing progression. Tactically, Sturm play a solid 4-4-2 diamond, compact and quick on the break, against Dyche’s counter-attacking system that sits deep and hits with pace.

Injuries light for both: no fresh concerns reported in the last few days, so full strength expected.

• Possession gap: Sturm hold 55% on average, channelling 35% of attacks centrally, while Forest cede the ball at 48% and rely on 18 tackles per game to win it back.
• Set-piece bite: Sturm net 0.40 from dead balls and concede 0.20; Forest score 0.30 but leak 0.40, making restarts a potential swing factor.
• Shot battle: Sturm average 15 shots (6 on target) to Forest’s 12 (4), so the hosts could pile on pressure if they dominate territory.

Sturm’s last 10: 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss, scoring 22 and conceding just 7, with 5 clean sheets. Rock solid defensively but that recent defeat stings.

Forest’s recent 10: 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses, netting 14 and shipping 11, with 3 clean sheets. Patchy but unbeaten in four at home.

Sturm’s home record in last 10 at Merkur Arena: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, banging in 23 and conceding 5, with 6 clean sheets. A real fortress, rarely troubled.

Forest away over 10 recent trips: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, scoring 10 but leaking 13, with 1 clean sheet. Gritty but vulnerable on the road.

Sturm consistently create 1.90 xG while restricting foes to 0.80; Forest at 1.40 xG and 1.30 xGA, highlighting the hosts’ defensive edge.

No previous meetings between Sturm Graz and Nottingham Forest in competitive or friendly action. A clean slate adds intrigue, with Sturm’s home strength clashing against Forest’s counter threat—could go either way.

Sturm’s rock-tight defence and home form give them the nod, but Forest’s grit on the road and set-piece vulnerability suggest a low-scoring scrap. The Austrians’ second-half surge tips it.

Prediction: 1–0 home win.

Main pick: Sturm Graz to win — 70% home win rate and 50% clean sheets outweigh Forest’s away struggles.

Value angle: Under 2.5 goals — Sturm concede 0.70 per game, Forest score 1.40, with 50% of matches under.