Ajax vs Benfica | Football Preview & Betting Tips | 25 November 2025

This one’s massive in the league phase standings — Ajax need points to climb after a ropey start, while Benfica can solidify a strong position with Mourinho settling in nicely since September. The Special One’s got them organised and hard to break down, with a solid points haul domestically. Expect a lively atmosphere with the Ajax faithful pushing hard, though Benfica’s travelling support will make themselves heard. Tactically, Ajax should line up in their usual 4-3-3, looking to press high and use width to create overloads. Benfica, under Mourinho, favour a compact 4-2-3-1, sitting a bit deeper to counter and exploit spaces. Injury-wise, Ajax are without Branco van den Boomen, with Wout Weghorst a doubt due to a knock and fitness issues, plus Julien Mokio on international duty. For Benfica, Dodi Lukebakio is out long-term with an ankle fracture, Fredrik Aursnes might miss with an unknown issue, and Amar Dedic is sidelined by a muscle problem.

• Possession battle: Ajax hold about 58% on average but Benfica edge it at 61%, so expect the visitors to control spells and force Ajax into transitions.
• Chance creation: Benfica generate 1.86 xG per game while allowing just 1.04 against; Ajax are at 1.76 for and 1.47 against, highlighting Benfica’s tighter defensive line.
• Second-half surges: Ajax score 57% of goals after the break, while Benfica net 55% before — could lead to a cagey first half before things open up.

Ajax’s last 10: 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses, with 16 goals scored and 21 conceded, managing just 1 clean sheet. They’ve been leaky at the back but can find the net, often starting slow but improving later on.

Benfica’s last 10: 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, banging in 18 goals while shipping only 5, with 6 clean sheets. Mourinho’s got them solid and clinical, relying on early goals to set the tone.

Ajax at home (last 4): 25% win rate, averaging 0.75 goals for and 1.75 against, no clean sheets. They’ve struggled to keep things tight in front of their fans.

Benfica away (last 5): 60% win rate, averaging 1.4 goals for and 0.8 against, with 3 clean sheets. Solid on the road, keeping it compact and nicking results.

Benfica’s attack looks sharper, and their defence is miles ahead — could spell trouble for Ajax.

Benfica edge the xG creation at 1.86 while facing less at 1.04; Ajax are close but leakier at 1.47 against, showing the quality gap.

These two have met five times in the Champions League, with Ajax winning twice, two draws, and Benfica one. Most recent was 2022: Benfica edged a 1-0 away win in Amsterdam after a 2-2 draw in Lisbon. Before that, 2018 saw 1-1 in Amsterdam and 1-0 Ajax win in Lisbon, while back in 2006 Ajax won 2-1 at home. Benfica have the recent edge, unbeaten in the last three meetings.

Ajax are struggling for form and leaking goals, while Benfica under Mourinho look solid at the back and clinical up top. The visitors’ better xG numbers and away record should see them nick it, though Ajax’s home push might keep it close.

Prediction: 1-2 away win.

Main pick: Benfica to win — their superior defence (0.55 conceded) and points haul make them safe against a leaky Ajax.

Value angle: Over 2.5 Goals — both sides see over 60% of games hit three or more, with Ajax’s open style adding to it.