Mainz have been struggling for results and sit worryingly close to the drop zone, whereas Gladbach are enjoying a solid season and fancy their chances of European football again. This one feels massive for both – three points could drag Mainz away from trouble or push Gladbach into the top six. The MEWA Arena will be rocking on a Friday night.

Both teams tend to line up in a 3-4-2-1 / 3-4-3 shape that can flip into a back five without the ball. It’s often a chess match between these two – compact, physical, and usually low-scoring.

Mainz are seeing very little of the ball lately (49% average possession) and are getting hit on the counter far too easily, while Gladbach sit slightly deeper (46% possession) but are far more clinical when they do break – averaging 5.0 shots on target compared to Mainz’s 2.8. Set pieces look huge: Mainz concede 0.4 per game from dead balls and Gladbach nick 0.3, so deliveries into the box will be key.

Mainz’s last ten: just 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats – 11 scored, 16 conceded, two clean sheets. They’ve been competitive in spells but keep getting picked off.

Gladbach’s last ten: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats – 19 scored, 15 conceded, three clean sheets. Inconsistent at home but very dangerous on their travels lately.

Mainz at home (last 10 competitive): win rate 30%, average 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded. The MEWA Arena has been tough to win at, but they’ve only kept one clean sheet in the last seven.

Gladbach away (last 10 competitive): win rate 50%, average 2.1 scored, 1.4 conceded. They’ve won four of their last six on the road.

Mainz actually edge chance creation, but Gladbach, but the visitors are conceding higher-quality opportunities. That makes Gladbach’s clinical finishing the difference-maker.

Mainz are unbeaten in nine against Gladbach – the last five meetings went: Gladbach 1-3 Mainz, Mainz 0-0 Gladbach, Mainz 1-1 Gladbach, Gladbach 2-2 Mainz, Mainz 2-1 Gladbach. Mainz haven’t lost to them since 2021 and have won the last four at the MEWA Arena (2 wins, 2 draws).

Mainz’s home record against Gladbach is rock solid and they desperately need the points, but their current form is grim and Gladbach are flying on the road. This has draw written all over it, but the value is with the visitors’ superior finishing.

Prediction: Mainz 05 1-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach

Best Bet: Borussia Mönchengladbach draw no bet – covers the most likely draw while backing their away quality.

Value angle: Both Teams To Score – Yes – 57% model chance and Mainz always nick one at home against these.

Alternative: Over 2.5 goals – Gladbach games hitting over 60%, Mainz leaking.

Cards: Over 3.5 cards – both average over 2 bookings each.

Gladbach far more clinical in the final third.