Hamburger SV vs Werder Bremen | Bundesliga Preview & Betting Tips | 7 Dec 2025

Hamburg finally made it back to the Bundesliga and are scrapping away in mid-table, while Bremen are just above them and picking up results here and there. This one is always chaotic – the Volksparkstadion will be bouncing, red smoke everywhere and a huge green-and-white away end giving it plenty back.

Hamburg usually line up in a 4-2-3-1 that tries to control the middle and hit quick on the break. Bremen have been using a 3-4-2-1 or 4-3-3, happy to sit a bit deeper and spring forward fast.

Both sides struggle to keep the ball for long periods – Hamburg average 47 % possession, Bremen 50 % – so it’s often end-to-end stuff. Set pieces could be massive: Bremen score 0.5 per game from dead balls and concede 0.6, while Hamburg are shipping 0.5 from them. Hamburg also concede a lot in the first half (8 of last 16), whereas Bremen tend to score early (6 of their last 10 before the break).

Hamburg over the last ten: three wins, two draws, five defeats – 11 scored, 16 conceded, two clean sheets. Only 1.2 points per game and looking shaky at the back.

Bremen: three wins, four draws, three defeats – 10 scored, 13 conceded, three clean sheets. Slightly steadier and picking up 1.3 points per game.

Hamburg at home (last 10 league): 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats – averaging 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded. The Volksparkstadion has been a decent place for points.

Bremen away (last 10 league): 2 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats – averaging 1.1 scored and 1.6 conceded. Hardly set the world alight on the road.

Bremen are actually creating more than they score and conceding more than expected – Hamburg the opposite. Home advantage and the derby madness should even things out.

It’s been a while since these two met in the league, but the last five competitive clashes (all pre-2022) were tight: Hamburg won 2-1 in Feb 2022 and 1-0 away in 2021, but Bremen took the three previous ones including a DFB-Pokal win at the Volksparkstadion. Four of the last five saw under 2.5 goals.

Derbies like this rarely follow the form book – the atmosphere, the occasion and Hamburg being back at home in the top flight for the first time in years should give them the edge. Bremen are scrappy but rarely brilliant away.

Prediction: Hamburger SV 2-1 Werder Bremen

Main pick: Hamburger SV to win – home advantage in a Nordderby is massive.

Value angle: Over 2.5 goals – 60 % of Hamburg’s recent games cleared it and derbies often explode.

Alternative: Hamburg win & BTTS – both defences look ropey.

Over/under 2.5: Over – looks the play.

Corners: Over 10.5 – both average around 5 each.

Cards: Over 5.5 – these games always get heated.