Roma vs Genoa | Serie A Preview & Betting Tips

Roma head into the final round of the calendar year knowing this is the kind of fixture they simply have to bank. Sitting firmly in the European places, home form has been the backbone of their season so far, while Genoa arrive in Rome scrapping for every point they can get.

The Olimpico should be lively without being hostile — a confident home crowd expecting control, with a small but noisy away following hoping for a smash-and-grab. Roma are likely to dominate territory and possession, while Genoa will be set up to stay compact, slow the tempo, and nick moments on the break.

Tactically, Roma usually line up in a structured back four with a patient build-up, recycling possession until gaps appear. Genoa tend to sit deeper, defending in numbers and looking to move the ball forward quickly once they regain it.

Roma’s numbers point towards control rather than chaos. Averaging over 85% pass completion and just under 1.3 goals scored per game, their matches are often about patience and game management rather than shoot-outs. Clean sheets at home have been a recurring theme, with opponents finding it hard to create clear chances.

Genoa’s away games tell a different story. Conceding around 1.5 goals per match and featuring in higher-scoring contests, they tend to struggle once they’re pushed back for long spells. When forced to defend for extended periods, gaps start to appear — especially late on.

Roma over the last ten competitive matches: five wins, three draws, two defeats — 13 goals scored, 10 conceded, four clean sheets. Solid rather than spectacular, but consistently picking up points.

Genoa’s last ten: two wins, three draws, five defeats — 12 scored, 17 conceded. They’ve been competitive in spells, but lapses at the back have regularly undone them.

Roma at home (last 10): around a 70% win rate, averaging roughly 1.6 goals scored and under 1 conceded per game. They don’t blow teams away, but they control matches well.

Genoa away (last 10): win rate below 25%, conceding close to two goals per game. They’ve struggled to sustain pressure on the road.

Roma consistently create more than Genoa, while also giving up fewer quality chances — the underlying numbers back up the league positions.

Roma have had the edge recently, winning three of the last five meetings. Four of those five were decided by a single goal, including narrow home wins in league and cup action. Genoa’s standout result was a heavy home win in 2023, but trips to Rome have generally been tough.

This feels like a controlled home performance rather than a goal fest. Roma’s structure, home form and ability to manage games should be enough against a Genoa side that struggles away.

Prediction: Roma 2–0 Genoa

Main pick: Roma to win — stronger home numbers and better defensive record.

Value angle: Roma win to nil — clean sheets have been common at the Olimpico.