Rather than being a straightforward derby where emotion overrides everything, this one sets up quite neatly from the numbers. Köln sit 12th on 31 points and have made a habit of drawing games lately. They are not getting blown away every week, but they are also not turning enough of those competitive displays into wins.

Leverkusen arrive in 6th on 52 points with the better season across pretty much every major category. They score more, keep the ball better, create the stronger expected-goals figure, and average far more points per match. Even with a slightly mixed recent run, their attacking threat still stands out.

The head-to-head record leans heavily towards Leverkusen too. They have won four of the last five listed meetings, including a 2-0 win in December and a 3-2 cup victory before that. Köln did manage a 2-1 win in May 2023, but the more recent trend says Leverkusen usually find a way in this fixture.

That said, Köln are not a side you dismiss completely. They average 1.47 goals scored per game, take over 13 shots a match, and they do create enough to trouble opponents. The problem is at the other end, where the clean sheet rate is only 10%, which is a dangerous weakness against a side averaging just over two goals per game.

Leverkusen have had the better of this fixture in recent seasons. They have won four of the last five listed meetings and have scored at least twice in four of those matches.

The latest two results, a 2-0 league win and a 3-2 cup win, show the two main versions of this fixture. Sometimes Leverkusen control it comfortably, and sometimes Köln make it messy enough to turn it into a proper game. That is why the away win still appeals, but BTTS and overs also deserve respect.

1) Köln are active enough in attack, averaging 13.23 shots and 4.53 on target per game, so they are not short of intent.

2) The issue for Köln is defensive control. Conceding 1.70 per game with only a 10% clean sheet rate is a tough base against a side as sharp as Leverkusen.

3) Leverkusen should control more of the ball at around 59-60% possession, and that usually gives them the platform to create sustained pressure.

4) Both sides play in high-scoring matches on average, so this does not look like the sort of derby where caution completely takes over.

Köln’s recent sequence is full of draws, which makes them awkward to beat but also hints at a side lacking the final push to turn okay performances into strong ones.

Leverkusen have been a bit mixed lately, but the key difference is that even when results wobble slightly, their attacking output still stays strong. That keeps them dangerous in almost every match-up.

FC Köln at home: they should be competitive and the local edge matters, but their defensive record means even decent spells can disappear quickly if they lose structure.

Bayer Leverkusen away: the away side bring the stronger overall profile and enough control in possession to take some of the emotion out of the game if they start well.

Köln can make this lively and they have enough attacking output to ask a few questions, but Leverkusen still look the more complete side. With the recent head-to-head edge, the stronger scoring average, and better all-round numbers, the away side get the nod in a match that should still see chances at both ends.

Prediction: FC Köln 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen