Rather than expecting a simple walkover, this looks more like a game where Arsenal need to steady themselves and reassert control. They are still top on 70 points after 33 matches, and their overall numbers remain excellent despite recent setbacks against Manchester City and Bournemouth.

Across the season, Arsenal are averaging 1.91 goals scored and just 0.79 goals conceded per game, with a 42% clean sheet rate. That is title-winning form over the long run, even if the last two league games have introduced a bit of tension.

Newcastle come into this one in 14th, with 42 points, and their recent run has been mixed in a big way. Three straight defeats have dented momentum, but this is still a side averaging 12.5 shots per game, which is actually more than Arsenal’s average shot volume. The difference is that Arsenal have been far cleaner, sharper and more efficient over the full campaign.

The recent head-to-head also tilts towards the hosts. Arsenal have won three of the last five meetings and have already beaten Newcastle twice in 2025-26, including a 2-0 win away from home on 1 February 2026 and a 2-1 win at St James’ Park in September.

Arsenal have won three of the last five meetings listed, including each of the last two Premier League clashes.

Newcastle did win twice in this fixture sequence, so it is not a one-sided rivalry, but the recent trend has shifted back towards Arsenal and the cleaner defensive side has usually come out on top.

1) Arsenal should control the ball and territory with their 56% average possession, which matters even more after two straight league defeats.

2) Newcastle do get shots away, averaging 12.5 per game, so they are not likely to just sit in and absorb pressure for 90 minutes.

3) The biggest contrast is defensive reliability. Arsenal’s xG against of 0.94 and goals conceded average of 0.79 suggest a far sturdier platform than Newcastle’s 1.45 xG against and 1.48 conceded per match.

Arsenal: L-L-W-W-W-W-D-W-L-W from the last ten listed league results shows the recent dip has interrupted what had been a very strong run.

Newcastle: L-L-L-W-W-W-L-W-D-L reflects a side that can still produce big results, but has found it hard to string together consistency.

Arsenal at home: still look strong overall, with wins over Everton, Brentford, Leeds and Southampton in the recent sample, even if the Bournemouth defeat was a surprise stumble.

Newcastle away: capable of landing a result, as shown by wins at Chelsea and Tottenham, but there is still a vulnerable feel to them when facing top sides with control and structure.

Arsenal do not come into this one flying, but the wider body of work still points their way. Newcastle can make spells of the game awkward and they carry enough attacking threat to keep the hosts honest, yet Arsenal’s defensive base and overall quality should be enough.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Newcastle