7:00 Newcastle (AW)
A Class 5 handicap over 6f on standard ground at Newcastle features a field of fourteen three-year-olds where the KTB Fit ratings identify a fairly tight bunch at the top end. The top five are separated by just ten points on the KTB scale, suggesting a race that could be competitive on paper yet shaped decisively by the pace and draw. March Ahead tops the KTB figures at 61 and is the selection, though wide draws for several leading contenders and unproven performers on the surface add layers of uncertainty.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the field the pace shape is expected to be strong and the race could collapse in the final furlong, favouring those delivered from off the pace. Sea Her Excel and Dontwaste A Moment are the most likely to take the field along from their respective stalls while several hold-up performers, including the selection March Ahead, Record Day and Great Profit, will be looking to capitalise late. The key question is whether the leaders go hard enough early to create the sort of gaps that the patient runners need in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1March Ahead KTB Selection61/100
March Ahead is a modest performer who has already won over this trip from five attempts. His recent form of 6184-5 shows a bit of ability but also inconsistency, while the wide draw in stall 12 adds a negative here. He drops in class which could help and his run-style sees him usually held up, producing his effort late which looks ideal given the strong pace anticipated. Bryan Smart and David Nolan both hold a 12% strike rate at the track from large samples, giving the combination a familiar feel at Newcastle even though the horse has no previous course form and remains unproven on standard ground.
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2Riley Rocks56/100
Riley Rocks is a modest performer who has already won over course and distance on his sole visit here. He has struck twice on standard ground from four attempts and looks suited by this trip having won two of his five runs at it. Settling typically in midfield should see him well placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses late. Dylan Cunha and Sam James both have below-average records at the track, which tempers enthusiasm slightly despite the horse's clear course-and-distance suitability.
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3Great Profit54/100
Great Profit is a modest performer who arrives in solid form after winning a similar race last time and has won once from three starts at this trip. This is his first run at Newcastle on standard ground which raises a question as the yard has had too few runners here to judge and the horse is unproven on the surface. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the expected strong pace. Barry McHugh brings a solid 9% strike-rate from 510 rides at the track while the trainer's 0% from three runs is a small-sample negative.
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4Record Day52/100
Record Day is a modest performer who has failed to place in three runs at this track. Dropping back to 6f is an interesting move as he has been placed at the trip in his only attempt, though he arrives in ordinary form after a string of mid-division finishes. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, his style aligns well with the strong pace likely to unfold. Brian Ellison has a modest 9% strike rate here from 901 runs but this is offset by Conor Whiteley’s strong 24% strike-rate at Newcastle from 29 rides.
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5Sea Her Excel51/100
Sea Her Excel is a modest performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with three wins but also several poor efforts. She steps up from 5f to a trip she has won over before though her latest efforts suggest she may struggle to match that level now from a wide draw in stall 14. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, she is likely to be one of those setting the strong gallop. Ivan Furtado and Elle-May Croot both operate at a 10% strike rate here while her one run at the track produced a placed effort on standard ground.
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6Dontwaste A Moment50/100
Dontwaste A Moment is a modest performer who has already won once over this course and distance. He steps back up to 6f today after a recent run over 5f and holds a solid record on the surface with one win and a place from two runs on standard. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could be involved early in what is expected to be a strong gallop.
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7Comprador50/100
Comprador is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing third on his only visit to Newcastle. He drops back to 6f today having been placed twice at the trip without winning, though the move comes after a recent run over 7f. Placed three times from five runs on standard ground, he should be competitive if the pace collapses in his favour.
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8Believeinmenow49/100
Believeinmenow is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing in the first four on five of his last seven starts. He ran respectably when fourth over 5f here last time yet steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at 6f. He has placed once from one run on standard and finished fourth on his only previous visit to the track.
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9Maximum Velocity48/100
Maximum Velocity is a modest performer who has been placed three times from 13 starts including a third here over this trip on his only visit to Newcastle. He has shown enough on standard ground to suggest he can be competitive again but consistency is not his strong suit and he has been beaten a fair way on his last two starts. He steps up in class having been placed once from two runs on the surface.
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10Celtic Arrow46/100
Celtic Arrow is a modest performer who has been placed on all three starts at this track without winning. He drops back to 6f today having been placed twice at the trip earlier in the year, though the latest two runs were poor. He has been placed twice from four runs on standard and his placed efforts at Newcastle read 2nd, 4th and 3rd.
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11Showtown45/100
Showtown is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. First-time headgear is now tried and he has placed at this trip on three occasions though remains unproven on standard ground. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at the track while the jockey sits on 7%.
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12Storm Esme45/100
Storm Esme is a modest performer who has already won over this trip and on the surface here from just one previous visit to Newcastle. Dropping back from 7f should suit and the recent form figures hide some respectable efforts in better company than this. She has one win from one run on standard and the jockey brings a solid strike rate on the AW.
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13Perineighs38/100
Perineighs is a modest performer who has struggled since his early promise, finishing ninth of ten on his only previous visit to this track. He steps up to 6f today having been well held over 5f last time, a distance he has tried three times without placing. He has no win or place from one run on standard and both trainer and jockey have modest records here.
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14Saxon Prince38/100
Saxon Prince is a modest performer who has failed to trouble the judge in five starts this year and was well held on his only previous visit to this track. He drops back to 6f having looked stretched by 7f last time, though he has already tried today's trip without success. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate here from 103 runs and the jockey operates at 6% from 351 rides.
KTB verdict
March Ahead is the KTB Selection. He tops the ratings at 61, drops in class, and his hold-up style should be perfectly suited if the strong pace materialises as expected. The wide draw is a clear negative and he remains unproven on the surface, yet his proven ability at the trip and the trainer-jockey combination’s familiarity with the venue keep him at the head of affairs. The main dangers are Riley Rocks, who boasts course-and-distance success and a good record on standard ground, and Great Profit, who arrives in solid form and will also be delivered late. Record Day and Sea Her Excel complete the principals and could figure if the race falls their way.
KTB Selection March Ahead
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:08 UTC, 5 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| March Ahead | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Riley Rocks | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Great Profit | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Record Day | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Sea Her Excel | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| Dontwaste A Moment | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| Comprador | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Believeinmenow | 7/1 | 7Bet |
| Maximum Velocity | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Celtic Arrow | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Showtown | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Storm Esme | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Perineighs | 22/1 | William Hill |
| Saxon Prince | 22/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Newcastle (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newcastle (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Newcastle (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are most likely to set the strong pace?
Sea Her Excel and Dontwaste A Moment are the front-runners in the field and both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The pace is likely to be strong with two or more habitual front-runners and could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
How many of the field are unproven on standard ground?
March Ahead, Great Profit and Showtown have no runs on standard and are therefore unproven on the surface.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Newcastle in this race?
Conor Whiteley has a 24% strike rate at Newcastle from 29 rides.
Which horse has the best course-and-distance record among the principals?
Riley Rocks has won over course and distance on his sole visit here.
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