KTB Speed

What the number means

KTB Speed says how fast a horse actually ran. 100 is the typical winner of a GB Class 4 handicap on that code; each point above or below is a tenth of one per cent of the standard time. Higher is faster.

Class is never an input. A fast horse in a low-grade race gets a fast figure, and a slowly run Group race gets a slow one — the figure reveals class rather than assuming it.

How it is made

1. The horse's own time

   runner time = race time + lengths beaten ÷ lengths per second

   The official race time, plus the distance the horse was beaten turned into seconds on a stated scale: on the flat 6 lengths a second on good or faster ground, 5.5 on good to soft and 5 on soft or heavy; over jumps 5, 4.5 and 4.

2. A standard for the track

   For each course, surface and code we fit one curve of time against distance from 10 years of that track's results, only where it has at least 30 races over at least 3 distances. No standard, no figure — never a borrowed one.

3. The day's ground

   How fast the ground ran is measured from the other races on the same card against their standards — never the race's own time — and needs at least 4 races to measure. It tracks the going description and is finer than it: "good" on a day that ran a per cent fast is fast.

4. Points

   KTB Speed = 100 + 10 × (% faster − Class 4 winner's % faster)

   The per cent faster than the day-corrected standard, ten points per per cent, pegged so the typical GB Class 4 handicap winner reads 100 on each code.

Reading the grades

The grade says how much the day's card could tell us and how clean the comparison was — not how good the run was.

• A — at least 6 other races on the card to judge the ground by, a field of 6 to 12, and the horse beaten within 15 lengths on the flat or 30 over jumps.
• B — at least 4 other races on the card, a field of at least 6 (but not 13 or more on flat turf), beaten within the cap.
• C — anything else with a figure: small fields, heavily beaten, or big fields on flat turf, which we measured to be noisier.

The figure on a racecard

Before a race, a runner's KTB Speed is its best figure from up to its last three reliably timed runs — those graded A or B. The form line shows the figure for each run on its own.

When there is no figure

We show a dash and say why, in plain words, rather than make a number up:

• no official time, or the time came through as zero;
• hurdles or fences omitted, so the distance run is not the distance on the card;
• no distance on record, or no standard for that track yet;
• fewer than 4 races on the card to judge the ground;
• the horse did not complete, or no beaten distance was recorded.

What it cannot see

• Trouble in running. A horse that was blocked or bumped ran slower than it could have; the clock cannot tell.
• Races outside its window. KTB Speed covers GB and Irish racing from 15 September 2016. Earlier runs and races abroad have no figure, never a made-up one.
• Jumps times are noisier. That is the nature of the sport, and the jumps grades say so.

What changes and what does not

A figure can move for 7 days while official times settle; then it is final. Standard times are refitted each month as new results arrive, but a stored figure never moves when they are.

How it holds up

We have not yet published a test of KTB Speed. It is being tested on live races, alongside KTB Rating, before either is used in the KTB Fit score, and the result will be shown here.

Where you will see it

Every past run's KTB Speed figure is shown free on race results and horse pages. Before racing, every runner's figures are shown free in one race a day — the Open Race, chosen by a fixed rule before racing: the day's highest-class race in which at least 80% of the runners have a KTB Rating, or, if no race reaches that, the race with the largest share of its field rated. Whether figures exist decides it, never what they say. Figures we show free stay free.

The KTB Fit score still uses the official rating for ability; KTB Rating and KTB Speed are being tested on live races before either is used in it.

This version

Definitions

KTB Speed

KTB Speed is KickTheBookies' own figure for how fast a horse ran: its time against a standard time for that course, surface, code and distance, corrected for how fast the ground was running that day. 100 is the typical winner of a GB Class 4 handicap on that code, and each point is a tenth of one per cent of the standard time.

Standard time

A standard time is the time KickTheBookies expects for a distance at a course, surface and code, fitted as one curve from several years of that track's results rather than taken from a book.

Day variant

The day variant is how fast or slow a card ran against standard, measured from the other races on the same card — never the race's own time — and used to correct each figure for the ground.

Speed grade

The grade beside a KTB Speed figure (A, B or C) says how much the day's card could tell us about the ground and how clean the comparison was, not how good the run was.

Best recent KTB Speed

The figure shown for a runner before a race is its best KTB Speed from up to its last three reliably timed runs (grades A and B).