The KTB Fit Score
A single number, 0–100, for how well a horse fits the race it's about to run. Built from real form and connections data, computed once the night before, and frozen — the score you see in the morning is the score we stand behind all day.
Every selection counted — winners and losers. We publish strike rate and A/E against fair (margin-free) starting prices, not profit figures. See the full record →
One score. One selection. Every race.
Most ratings tell you how fast a horse is. The KTB Fit Score asks a harder, more useful question: how well does this horse suit this race — the ground, the track, the trainer's form, the jockey booking — today?
Every runner in every UK and Irish race is scored from 0 to 100. The highest score in a race is the KTB Selection. It's the same number and the same selection wherever you see it — on the racecard and on the results page. There is no second version that quietly differs behind the scenes.
Six things, weighted honestly
The score blends six factors. Ability carries the most weight because class wins races — but a fast horse on the wrong ground, at a track it hates, for a yard out of form, is exactly the trap the other five factors are built to catch.
How good the horse is — anchored on its official rating, measured both on its own merit and against the rest of today's field.
The trainer's record — strike rate at this course, recent 14-day form, and how the yard performs paired with today's jockey.
The jockey's record at this exact course — how often their rides win and place here, not a national average.
The horse's real form on today's ground, read from its actual past runs — never a guess from breeding alone.
The horse's real form at this track, including course wins and placed efforts over course and distance.
The morning's best price and the size of the field — a light read on how the horse is regarded, kept deliberately small.
Highest score wins — and ties are broken in the open
The KTB Selection in any race is simply the highest Fit Score. When two horses tie on the total, we break it in a fixed order — ability first, then trainer, then jockey, then course and going record, then the shorter price, then the lower racecard number. The rule never changes from race to race.
And when a race is genuinely competitive — three or more horses within two points of the top — we don't pretend otherwise. We call it a competitive race rather than dress up a narrow call as a confident one.
The rules we won't bend
Computed once, then frozen
The score is set overnight, after the day's racing has settled, and it doesn't move. You'll never see a selection change during the day because a number was quietly recalculated.
Non-runners are marked, never swapped
If our selection is withdrawn, we show it as a non-runner — we don't silently promote the next horse and rewrite history. The record stays honest.
The same number everywhere
The score on the racecard and on the results page is one and the same figure. No favourable version for the shop window.
We publish the losses
Every selection is graded — win or lose — against its actual result and starting price. We report strike rate and A/E, not a hand-picked profit figure.
What's fair A/E? It compares how often our selections actually win against how often their prices said they should — with the bookmaker's built-in margin stripped out of every race first. Exactly 1.00 means they perform precisely as true, margin-free market prices imply; above 1.00 means they beat the market's real expectation. It's a fairer test of an edge than a profit total, which any run of luck can flatter.
Straight answers
What is the KTB Fit Score?
It's a single rating from 0 to 100 of how well a horse fits the race it's about to run — built from real form and connections data, computed once the night before, and then frozen for the day.
How is the KTB Fit Score calculated?
It blends six weighted factors: ability (30%), trainer (20%), jockey (15%), the horse's form on the going (15%), its course form (10%) and a light read of the market (10%).
How is the KTB selection chosen for a race?
The selection is simply the highest-scoring runner. Ties are broken in a fixed order — ability, then trainer, then jockey, then course and going record, then the shorter price, then the lower racecard number. When three or more runners sit within two points of the top, we call it a competitive race rather than force a confident call.
What does A/E mean?
A/E compares how often our selections actually win (Actual) against how often their prices said they should (Expected). Starting prices carry the bookmaker's built-in margin, so we strip that out of every race first — the fair price — before computing the expectation. Exactly 1.00 means the selections perform exactly as margin-free starting prices imply; above 1.00 means they beat the market's true expectation. It is a fairer test of an edge than a profit total, which a run of luck can flatter.
Does the score change during the day?
No. The score and the selection are set overnight, after the day's racing has settled, and they do not move. If a selection is withdrawn we mark it a non-runner — we never quietly promote the next horse.
Do you publish losing selections?
Yes. Every selection is graded, win or lose, against its actual result and starting price. We report strike rate and A/E at starting price — never a hand-picked profit figure.
See it in action
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