1:30 York
This Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip at York brings together a field of 17, with professional jump jockeys taking the rides in a race that looks competitive on paper. The KTB Fit scores point to a cluster of fairly-matched handicappers near the top, headed by Emerald Harmony on 67, while the remainder sit in the low-to-mid 50s and below, suggesting a race where course form, draw and ability to handle good-to-firm conditions will be key. Overall the numbers indicate a steadily-run affair in which those positioned handy could hold an edge.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and is taken with medium confidence, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical sprint rather than an end-to-end gallop. Several runners, including Emerald Harmony, Tees Aggregates, Vince L'Amour, Kodiac Thriller and Harb, tend to be held up and produce their efforts late, which could leave them with plenty to do if the race is slowly-run early on. The key question is whether being handy from a good draw will pay in a race where prominent racers may be at a premium.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Emerald Harmony KTB Selection67/100Emerald Harmony is a fair handicapper who has been in decent nick this year with three wins from his last ten runs.
- 2Almaty Star57/100Almaty Star is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win at this trip mixed in among several modest efforts.
- 3Tees Aggregates56/100Modest performer who has won four times on good to firm, including at this trip.
- 4Managing Director55/100Modest performer who has won once over today's trip but has been well held in both runs at York.
- 5Cayman Tai53/100Modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning often.
- 6Lethal Nymph52/100Lethal Nymph is a fair performer who has run seven times at York without winning but has been placed twice, including a second on his most recent visit.
- 7Vince L'Amour52/100Modest performer who has won once from seven starts at York but is 0-3 on good to firm ground and has been out of form for most of this season.
- 8Ventura Express51/100Ventura Express is a modest 9-year-old who has been around a bit and often finds a few too good.
- 9Roberto Caro51/100Roberto Caro is a fair performer who has run creditably on this track when finishing fourth here last season.
- 10Mon Na Slieve49/100Mon Na Slieve is a fair performer who has won over this trip three times from 31 starts and also landed a race at York from five attempts.
- 11Kodiac Thriller49/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form this year and was well held on his last two starts.
- 12King's Call46/100King's Call is a fair performer on his best days and has placed at this trip, yet his recent form of 000-00 shows a horse who has lost his way.
- 13Cameley Days45/100Modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning since last summer.
- 14Sports Coach43/100Sports Coach is a fair performer who has run six times at York without placing and arrives in ordinary recent form.
- 15Bayraat42/100Bayraat is a limited handicapper who has been in decent recent form with two wins and two seconds from his last four starts.
- 16Dream Deal39/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed little when last of 15 over course and distance on his only previous visit here.
- 17Harb37/100Modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off a recent sixth.
The contenders
Emerald Harmony KTB Fit 67/100
Emerald Harmony is a fair handicapper who has been in decent nick this year, registering three wins from his last ten runs. He has placed here at York on his sole visit and handles good to firm ground, recording one win and three places from four starts. The 5yo is drawn in stall 4 and usually races held up, producing his effort late, though the evidence for that run-style is limited. Paul Midgley has a modest 5% strike rate at York from 345 runs while Jonathan England boasts a 20% strike rate from just five rides at the track. His recent form of 303123 underlines his competitiveness at this level, though his overall strike rate at five furlongs remains modest.
Almaty Star KTB Fit 57/100
Almaty Star is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year, mixing a recent win at this trip with several modest efforts. He has shown little on good to firm ground from six attempts and finished only sixth when tried here once before. Drawn in stall 17, he faces the widest berth in a field where a handy position could be advantageous. Robert Cowell has a modest 5% strike rate at York from 92 runs while Charlie Todd has struck at a 50% rate from two rides at the track. His form figures of 421083 capture the inconsistency that has marked his campaign.
Tees Aggregates KTB Fit 56/100
Tees Aggregates is a modest performer who has won four times on good to firm ground, including at this trip. He has a solid record on the surface with four wins and four places from ten starts. The 4yo was well held when tried here once before and is drawn wide in stall 16, which adds to the difficulty in a steadily-run race. Adrian Nicholls holds a solid 15% strike rate at York from 34 runs, though Brendan Powell is yet to score from four rides at the track. Recent form of 453317 shows he can be competitive when things fall right.
Managing Director KTB Fit 55/100
Managing Director is a modest performer who has won once over today's trip but has been well held in both runs at York. The yard's 7% strike rate here from 117 runs is modest and Danny McMenamin has yet to strike at the track from three rides. Good-to-firm ground looks fine on the balance of his form, with one win and one place from four starts. Drawn in stall 7, he is well placed to be handy if required. His recent efforts read 3018/5, indicating he retains ability but needs to bounce back from a modest latest effort.
Cayman Tai KTB Fit 53/100
Cayman Tai is a modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning often. He has placed five times from nine starts on good to firm and has won at this trip, though he has never scored at York where he finished seventh on his only visit. Richard Hannon holds a solid 11% strike rate at the track from 346 runs while Kevin Brogan takes the ride with a neutral score at York. His form figures of 321293 reflect a reliable profile at this level, even if a first York success remains elusive.
The rest of the field
Lethal NymphKTB Fit 52/100
Lethal Nymph is a fair performer who has run seven times at York without winning but has been placed twice, including a second on his most recent visit. He acts on good to firm, recording one win and three places from eight starts, and has won at this trip though his overall strike rate at the distance is modest. The yard's 5% strike rate from 345 runs at the track is another negative.
Vince L'AmourKTB Fit 52/100
Vince L'Amour is a modest performer who has won once from seven starts at York but is 0-3 on good to firm ground and has been out of form for most of this season. The first-time headgear is a possible plus yet his recent efforts give little encouragement. Trainer Tim Easterby has a 6% strike rate from 2085 runs at the track while Dylan Johnston is 0-3 at York.
Ventura ExpressKTB Fit 51/100
Ventura Express is a modest 9-year-old who has been around a bit and often finds a few too good. He has placed here at York without winning and holds a solid record at today's trip, including four wins. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at the track is a negative on ground he has handled reasonably well.
Roberto CaroKTB Fit 51/100
Roberto Caro is a fair performer who has run creditably on this track when finishing fourth here last season. He has shown some spark on good to firm ground and now tries 5f for the first time, which asks a fresh question at this sharper trip. First-time headgear is fitted while the yard's modest 6% strike rate at York suggests he will need to improve on recent efforts.
Mon Na SlieveKTB Fit 49/100
Mon Na Slieve is a fair performer who has won over this trip three times from 31 starts and also landed a race at York from five attempts. He has shown consistent form this year with a string of placed efforts though he has failed to win in his last eight runs on good to firm ground. The Kevin Ryan yard posts an 8% strike rate here from a large sample while Brian Hughes is in the saddle.
Kodiac ThrillerKTB Fit 49/100
Kodiac Thriller is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year and was well held on his last two starts. He has run twice at York without placing and the trainer's modest 4% strike-rate here adds little confidence. First-time headgear is now tried on good to firm ground where he has one win and three places from five runs.
King's CallKTB Fit 46/100
King's Call is a fair performer on his best days and has placed at this trip, yet his recent form of 000-00 shows a horse who has lost his way. He has run respectably at York without winning and the yard's modest 7% strike-rate here offers no obvious uplift. First-time headgear is now fitted on ground that has so far produced no win or place from seven starts.
Cameley DaysKTB Fit 45/100
Cameley Days is a modest performer who has been consistent this year without winning since last summer. He drops back to 5f having won twice at the trip earlier in his career and acts on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now tried while the trainer's modest 7% strike rate at York comes from a decent-sized sample.
Sports CoachKTB Fit 43/100
Sports Coach is a fair performer who has run six times at York without placing and arrives in ordinary recent form. He has won at this trip but only managed one placing from three runs on good to firm ground. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 69 runs at the track.
BayraatKTB Fit 42/100
Bayraat is a limited handicapper who has been in decent recent form with two wins and two seconds from his last four starts. He has run well at York in the past without winning and drops back to 5f today where he has one win from 14 attempts. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at the track is a negative.
Dream DealKTB Fit 39/100
Dream Deal is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed little when last of 15 over course and distance on his only previous visit here. He has placed on good to firm ground and has won at this trip but the first-time headgear is now needed to spark a revival. Tim Easterby has a modest 6% strike rate at York from a huge sample while Richie McLernon is 0-11 at the track.
HarbKTB Fit 37/100
Harb is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off a recent sixth. He has won seven times at this trip but is 0-3 on good to firm ground and the yard is yet to strike at York from ten runners. First run here adds another unknown to the mix.
KTB verdict
Emerald Harmony looks the most solid option in a race where several negatives apply to his rivals. A fair handicapper with three wins from his last ten runs, he has already placed at York, handles good to firm and is drawn to be well positioned in a steadily-run affair. The selection can build on his recent form of 303123 and make the most of Jonathan England's positive record at the track. Main dangers include Lethal Nymph, who has placed twice at York and arrives in reasonable order, and Mon Na Slieve, who has course-winning form and a strong trainer-jockey combination despite his modest strike rate on good to firm. Ventura Express and Roberto Caro are others who cannot be entirely dismissed if the race develops favourably.
KTB Selection Emerald Harmony
This is the narrative read of the 1:30 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course form at York?
Lethal Nymph has the best recent course form at York, having run seven times without winning but placing twice, including a second on his most recent visit.
How many runners are stepping up in class?
Four runners are stepping up in class: Cameley Days, Sports Coach, Bayraat and Dream Deal.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Vince L'Amour, Roberto Caro, Kodiac Thriller, King's Call, Cameley Days and Dream Deal are all wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer-jockey combination at York according to the figures?
Kevin Ryan and Brian Hughes have the strongest trainer-jockey combination at York with an 18/76 (24%) record and A/E 1.19.
Which principal has the best going record on good to firm?
Tees Aggregates has the best going record on good to firm among the principals with four wins from ten starts.
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