3:40 Ascot
The King Charles III Stakes is a prestigious Group 1 sprint over five furlongs at Ascot on good to firm ground, featuring a maximum field of 26 smart performers. KTB's Fit Scores highlight a competitive affair with Overpass and Time For Sandals heading the numbers at 73 and 72 respectively, while the rest of the principals sit between 65 and 63. The race asks questions around trip, ground and draw for several runners in what looks a typically strong Royal Ascot sprint.
How the race shapes up
With a large field and several prominent runners, the pace shape is expected to be strongly contested on the front end. Overpass is likely to be ridden positively from stall 19 while Big Mojo, American Affair and others can also press forward, potentially setting up a test for those coming from off the pace. The key question is whether the leaders can hold on up the straight or if the race will fall to a closer with the right balance of speed and stamina.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Overpass KTB Selection73/100Smart performer who arrives in solid nick after a string of placed efforts at a mile lower level.
- 2Time For Sandals72/100Smart performer who won on his only previous visit to Ascot and has placed both times he has run over today's 5f trip.
- 3Big Mojo65/100Smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 4American Affair63/100Smart performer who won on his only previous visit to Ascot and has a solid record on good to firm ground with three wins from seven attempts.
- 5Shagraan63/100Shagraan is a smart performer with a solid record at this track and trip.
- 6Night Raider63/100Night Raider is a smart performer who has won both starts this year after a lengthy break and is proven at this trip.
- 7Mgheera61/100Useful performer who has won three times at this trip from 15 attempts but arrives in ordinary form having finished no better than fifth on his last four starts…
- 8Asfoora59/100Smart performer who has won at this track and at today's trip.
- 9Frost At Dawn59/100Frost At Dawn is a smart performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second on his only visit.
- 10Rayevka59/100Smart performer who has placed here without winning.
- 11Mission Central59/100Mission Central is a smart 3-year-old with a strong recent record of 610-11 and has already won over this 5f trip twice from five attempts.
- 12Jakajaro58/100Smart performer who has won two of his last three starts and arrives in form.
- 13Starlust58/100Smart performer who has run creditably at this track without winning.
- 14First Instinct58/100Smart performer who has won twice at this trip and handles good to firm ground.
- 15Rumstar57/100Rumstar is a smart performer who has won at this track and at today's trip.
- 16Monteille56/100Monteille is a smart performer who has won twice at this trip though he arrives in modest form after two ordinary efforts this year.
- 17Cover Up56/100Smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 18Rosy Affair56/100Smart performer who arrives in excellent order after two wins this year.
- 19Getreadytorumble56/100Useful performer who has run to form on both starts this year and finished a solid third over this course and distance last season.
- 20Ain't Nobody55/100Smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track.
- 21Aspect Island51/100Smart performer who has finished in the frame on all three starts at this trip.
- 22Miss Attitude50/100Miss Attitude is a useful performer with a solid record on good to firm ground, recording three wins and five placings from ten starts.
- 23Jm Jungle50/100Smart performer who has won six times at this trip but has been below form in both starts this year.
- 24Heavenly Heather48/100Useful performer who has run creditably at this level without quite landing a big one.
- 25Azure Angel45/100Useful performer who has won three times over this trip.
- 26Behike42/100Behike has shown useful ability with two wins from three starts yet remains lightly raced and not fully exposed.
The contenders
Overpass KTB Fit 73/100
Overpass is a smart performer who arrives in solid nick after a string of placed efforts at a mile lower level. He drops back to 5f for the first time in a while having been placed without winning at the trip earlier in his career, which poses a fresh question. The Bjorn Baker yard boasts a 27% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.19 from 11 runs, though the horse has never run here before. Joshua Parr takes the ride with a strong 38% strike rate at the track from eight rides. The combination holds an overall trainer-jockey record of 13/92 with an A/E of 1.19. He remains unproven on good to firm ground.
Time For Sandals KTB Fit 72/100
Time For Sandals is a smart performer who won on his only previous visit to Ascot and has placed both times he has run over today's 5f trip. He drops back from 6f having shown useful form in Listed and Group company this year, though his two most recent efforts were a bit below that level. Harry Eustace has a solid 20% strike rate at the track from 35 runs with an A/E of 1.5 while the trainer-jockey combination with Richard Kingscote reads 9/32 with an A/E of 1.91. Kingscote himself has a 7% strike rate at Ascot from 264 rides. The four-year-old has a record of one win from three starts on good to firm.
Big Mojo KTB Fit 65/100
Big Mojo is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track. He has two wins from four starts on good to firm and drops back to 5f today having last run over 6f. Michael Appleby has an 8% strike rate from 160 runs at Ascot with an A/E of 0.78 while the trainer-jockey record with Tom Marquand is 37/241 with an A/E of 1.00. Marquand holds an 8% strike rate at the course from 420 rides. Drawn in stall 17, the four-year-old has course form of one win from three starts.
American Affair KTB Fit 63/100
American Affair is a smart performer who won on his only previous visit to Ascot and has a solid record on good to firm ground with three wins from seven attempts. He has won six times over this trip from 14 starts and arrives in decent form after a second last time out. The Jim Goldie yard has a 7% strike rate at Ascot from 173 runs with an A/E of 1.08 while the trainer-jockey record with Paul Mulrennan stands at 208/1245 with an A/E of 1.06. Mulrennan has a 4% strike rate at the track from 71 rides. The main negative is the wide draw in stall 18.
Shagraan KTB Fit 63/100
Shagraan is a smart performer with a solid record at this track and trip. He has won once from two runs at Ascot and holds four wins from 17 starts over 5f, while his three wins from 11 runs on good to firm ground show he handles conditions. Recent form of 121-30 confirms he remains competitive at this level though he has been below his best on his last two starts. Clive Cox has a 10% strike rate at Ascot from 500 runs with an A/E of 0.99 and the trainer-jockey record with Hector Crouch is 78/573 with an A/E of 0.91. Crouch holds a 10% strike rate at the track from 107 rides.
The rest of the field
Night RaiderKTB Fit 63/100
Night Raider is a smart performer who has won both starts this year after a lengthy break and is proven at this trip. He has been well beaten in both previous attempts at Ascot though and his record on good to firm is only modest with a single win from six runs. The Burke yard and Doyle both have solid records at the track without setting it alight.
MgheeraKTB Fit 61/100
Mgheera is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip from 15 attempts but arrives in ordinary form having finished no better than fifth on his last four starts. Only one run on good to firm ground and that produced no win or place so the surface is unproven at this level. Ed Walker has a solid 13 percent strike rate from 234 runs at Ascot while this is the horse's first visit to the track.
AsfooraKTB Fit 59/100
Asfoora is a smart performer who has won at this track and at today's trip. Recent form is mixed with a pair of duck eggs this year but she did win a Group race at the end of last season and has solid placed form on good to firm. Stall 26 looks far from ideal on the wide outside.
Frost At DawnKTB Fit 59/100
Frost At Dawn is a smart performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second on his only visit. He has won over today's trip though his record at the distance reads just 1-12 overall and recent form of 430-08 suggests he is not at his peak right now. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at Ascot is a negative while William Buick takes the ride.
RayevkaKTB Fit 59/100
Rayevka is a smart performer who has placed here without winning. She has won at this trip and was competitive on good to firm going last time, though her recent form has been a bit up and down. The trainer holds a solid record at Ascot while the wide draw in stall 15 could make things tougher.
Mission CentralKTB Fit 59/100
Mission Central is a smart 3-year-old with a strong recent record of 610-11 and has already won over this 5f trip twice from five attempts. He has course experience in his favour having won here from one run and the yard and jockey both hold a 14% strike rate at Ascot. The only negative is that he is unproven on good to firm ground having never raced on it.
JakajaroKTB Fit 58/100
Jakajaro is a smart performer who has won two of his last three starts and arrives in form. He has been placed once from three runs at Ascot but has failed to place from four starts on good to firm ground. Trainer Robert Cowell has a 7% strike rate from 188 runs at this track while Jamie Spencer is aboard.
StarlustKTB Fit 58/100
Starlust is a smart performer who has run creditably at this track without winning. He has placed on good to firm but is now 0-7 on the surface and his recent form has been patchy. Trainer's modest strike rate here adds another negative.
First InstinctKTB Fit 58/100
First Instinct is a smart performer who has won twice at this trip and handles good to firm ground. He showed useful form when landing a listed race at York last summer but has been below that level on both starts this year. Haggas has a solid 13 percent strike rate at Ascot while Fallon takes the ride on a horse making his first start here.
RumstarKTB Fit 57/100
Rumstar is a smart performer who has won at this track and at today's trip. He has struck at a modest 6% rate for Portman at Ascot from 115 runs while Rob Hornby has a solid record on him. Two wins from nine on good to firm add to the positives though his recent form has been patchy.
MonteilleKTB Fit 56/100
Monteille is a smart performer who has won twice at this trip though he arrives in modest form after two ordinary efforts this year. He has never really taken to Ascot and his sole run on good to firm ground also failed to impress. The drop back to 5f asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 13 adds to the difficulties.
Cover UpKTB Fit 56/100
Cover Up is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Has posted solid efforts in Group company this year yet now drops back to 5f for the first time since last summer, which asks a fresh question at this level. Trainer's modest 9% strike rate at Ascot is a negative while the wide draw in stall 21 adds to the task.
Rosy AffairKTB Fit 56/100
Rosy Affair is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order after two wins this year. Drops back to 5f having won at the trip earlier in her career and boasts a strong record on good to firm ground. Boughey's modest 5% strike rate at Ascot is the main negative.
GetreadytorumbleKTB Fit 56/100
Getreadytorumble is a useful performer who has run to form on both starts this year and finished a solid third over this course and distance last season. He has won twice on good to firm ground and holds his own at this trip, though the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Ascot is a clear negative. Stall one could prove an advantage on fast ground.
Ain't NobodyKTB Fit 55/100
Ain't Nobody is a smart performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form is poor though and he has been well beaten on both starts this year. Trainer's modest strike rate at Ascot adds a further negative.
Aspect IslandKTB Fit 51/100
Aspect Island is a smart performer who has finished in the frame on all three starts at this trip. First-time headgear is reached for after two modest efforts this year and the yard's modest record at Ascot offers little encouragement. Drawn widest of all on his first run here and only one run on good to firm ground so far.
Miss AttitudeKTB Fit 50/100
Miss Attitude is a useful performer with a solid record on good to firm ground, recording three wins and five placings from ten starts. She has won five times at this trip from 25 attempts and arrives in reasonable form having been competitive in listed company on her last two outings. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 26 runs at Ascot is a negative and this is her first run here.
Jm JungleKTB Fit 50/100
Jm Jungle is a smart performer who has won six times at this trip but has been below form in both starts this year. Only one run at Ascot resulted in a fifth and the yard has yet to strike here from five attempts. Good to firm is workable given six places from 14 starts on it though the wide draw in stall 14 is far from ideal.
Heavenly HeatherKTB Fit 48/100
Heavenly Heather is a useful performer who has run creditably at this level without quite landing a big one. She has won over today's 5f trip but her only attempt on good to firm ground brought no joy and she now makes her first start at Ascot from a wide draw. Trainer has no previous runners here while Barry McHugh has a modest record at the track.
Azure AngelKTB Fit 45/100
Azure Angel is a useful performer who has won three times over this trip. Only one run at Ascot resulted in an eighth and the yard's modest 4% strike-rate here offers little encouragement. Goes well on good to firm but the wide draw in stall 25 is a clear negative.
BehikeKTB Fit 42/100
Behike has shown useful ability with two wins from three starts yet remains lightly raced and not fully exposed. He ran respectably when third here on his only visit to Ascot but that was over 6f and he now drops back to an untried 5f which asks a fresh question. The yard’s modest 3% strike rate at the track and the jockey’s 5% record here add little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Overpass is the KTB Selection. A smart performer in solid nick after several placed efforts, he drops back to 5f where he has been placed before and benefits from a trainer with a strong record at Ascot. The selection can make the most of his prominent run style in what looks a strongly run race. The main dangers are Time For Sandals, who won on his only previous Ascot start and is proven at the trip, and Big Mojo, who has already won over course and distance. American Affair and Shagraan also hold strong claims if overcoming their respective draw and recent form concerns.
KTB Selection Overpass
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won both starts this season after a break?
Night Raider has won both starts this year after a lengthy break.
Who is the only horse wearing first-time headgear?
Aspect Island is the only horse in first-time headgear.
Which runners are stepping up in class?
Heavenly Heather and Behike are stepping up in class.
How many wins has Overpass had over 5f earlier in his career?
Overpass has been placed without winning at 5f earlier in his career.
Which horse has the best trainer-jockey A/E at Ascot among the principals?
Time For Sandals has the trainer-jockey combination with an A/E of 1.91.
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