7:00 Beverley
This Class 4 maiden at Beverley over 7f96y on good to soft ground brings together a field of nine three-year-olds and one four-year-old, most of whom are lightly raced and unproven at the trip or on the surface. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, with Fozzie heading the list on 56, four principals tied on 50 and the remainder separated by only a handful of points down to 41. Several trainers hold strong course records at Beverley, yet many runners arrive with unknown quantities regarding the going and the drop or step in trip, making this an open-looking heat where experience and yard form at the track could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The race-level pace shape suggests a fairly even distribution of run-styles with no pronounced front-running bias, though several horses have shown a preference for racing prominently or in mid-division. With a low draw often advantageous at Beverley, Glen Nevis from stall one and Indefensible from three could look to secure early positions, while Fozzie in seven and Bee Farmer in eight are likely to come from slightly further back. The key question is whether the drop to 7f will suit those stepping back in trip or if the extra furlong will play into the hands of those with placed form over further.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Fozzie KTB Selection56/100Fozzie has shown fair form this year with three consecutive placed efforts after a couple of modest starts as a juvenile.
- 2Bee Farmer50/100Bee Farmer showed fair promise when second on debut over 1m and backed that up with a solid sixth at York last time.
- 3Lorca's Waltz50/100Lorca's Waltz showed little on debut then improved to finish fifth at Haydock last time.
- 4Elias Escape50/100Elias Escape has shown little in two starts to date, finishing fifth then eighth without suggesting he is well up to Class 4 level.
- 5Melting Snow49/100Melting Snow has shown only modest form in two starts at this trip so far and remains very lightly raced.
- 6Wats On Tiger49/100Wats On Tiger makes his debut for a yard that has a modest 5% strike-rate at Beverley from a big sample.
- 7Glen Nevis48/100Glen Nevis has shown ability in two starts, finishing second on debut over this trip before a respectable fourth when stepped up to 1m.
- 8Race To The Edge47/100Roger Varian has a strong 36 percent strike rate at Beverley from 67 runs.
- 9Indefensible41/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing second in three of his last four starts including over this trip.
The contenders
Fozzie KTB Fit 56/100
Fozzie has shown fair form this year with three consecutive placed efforts after a couple of modest starts as a juvenile. He drops back in trip from 1m2f to a distance at which he has already been placed once from two attempts. The Kevin Ryan yard holds a solid 15% strike rate at Beverley from a large sample while Shane Gray is on board. Trainer and jockey statistics read 123/1113 (11%) with an A/E of 0.94. Recent form figures read 77-223 and he comes into this dropping in class. With a KTB Fit Score of 56 he tops the numbers in a race where his placed efforts give him a clear edge in experience.
Bee Farmer KTB Fit 50/100
Bee Farmer showed fair promise when second on debut over 1m and backed that up with a solid sixth at York last time. He drops back to 7f today which asks a fresh question, while the small sample means his ability on good to soft ground remains unknown. The yard have a 19% strike rate at Beverley from 54 runs. Trainer and jockey statistics read 29/184 (16%) with an A/E of 0.90. Recent form figures read 62 and he is lightly raced. With a KTB Fit Score of 50 he is one of four horses sharing that mark and his debut promise keeps him firmly in the picture.
Lorca's Waltz KTB Fit 50/100
Lorca's Waltz showed little on debut then improved to finish fifth at Haydock last time. William Haggas has a solid 28% strike rate at Beverley from 163 runs while Harry Davies is 1-7 here. First-time headgear is now applied as this lightly-raced 3yo drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried. Trainer and jockey statistics read 4/13 (31%) with an A/E of 1.58. Recent form figures read 9-5 and he is dropping in class. With a KTB Fit Score of 50 the headgear and yard record at the track add interest to his profile.
Elias Escape KTB Fit 50/100
Elias Escape has shown little in two starts to date, finishing fifth then eighth without suggesting he is well up to Class 4 level. The step up from 6f to 7f poses a fresh question while the small sample makes it impossible to judge whether good to soft ground will suit. Richard and Peter Fahey have a 15% strike rate from 13 runners at Beverley and Warren Fentiman is 13% from 16 rides here, but with so little to go on this remains a very tentative profile. Trainer and jockey statistics read 4/25 (16%) with an A/E of 2.06. Recent form figures read 58 and he has a KTB Fit Score of 50.
The rest of the field
Melting SnowKTB Fit 49/100
Melting Snow has shown only modest form in two starts at this trip so far and remains very lightly raced. The yard has a solid 18% strike rate at Beverley from a big sample while Sam James is operating at a fairly typical 11% here. With so little to go on any assessment has to be tentative and he has a KTB Fit Score of 49.
Wats On TigerKTB Fit 49/100
Wats On Tiger makes his debut for a yard that has a modest 5% strike-rate at Beverley from a big sample. The jockey has a solid 11% strike-rate here from 169 rides and that is the main positive on offer. Pedigree and sales background are the only other guideposts available for this newcomer on good to soft ground and he has a KTB Fit Score of 49.
Glen NevisKTB Fit 48/100
Glen Nevis has shown ability in two starts, finishing second on debut over this trip before a respectable fourth when stepped up to 1m. The drop back in distance looks a sensible move and he is well drawn in stall 1. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Beverley and with only two runs on the board this remains a low-confidence profile with a KTB Fit Score of 48.
Race To The EdgeKTB Fit 47/100
Roger Varian has a strong 36 percent strike rate at Beverley from 67 runs. Race To The Edge has shown fair promise in two starts this year, finishing third over today's trip on the second occasion. With only two career runs the form has to be treated with caution and the going remains an unknown with a KTB Fit Score of 47.
IndefensibleKTB Fit 41/100
Modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing second in three of his last four starts including over this trip. Placed on his only visit to Beverley and drawn low in stall three today. First-time headgear is now applied while the trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the track comes from a large sample of 430 runners. He has a KTB Fit Score of 41.
KTB verdict
Fozzie is the KTB Selection. He has built a solid profile with three consecutive placed efforts this season and is dropping to a trip where he has already shown his ability. The Kevin Ryan yard's 15% strike rate at Beverley from a large sample adds further substance, as does the booking of Shane Gray. His main dangers are likely to come from Bee Farmer, whose debut second suggests ability, and Lorca's Waltz who brings the William Haggas 28% course record into play with first-time headgear. Race To The Edge cannot be entirely dismissed on the strength of the Varian record at the track.
KTB Selection Fozzie
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Beverley. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Beverley racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course and distance placed form at Beverley?
Indefensible has course form of one run for a second and has been placed over this trip.
Which runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Bee Farmer, Lorca's Waltz, Elias Escape, Melting Snow, Glen Nevis and Race To The Edge have no runs on good to soft.
What is the strongest trainer strike rate at Beverley in this field?
Roger Varian has a 36% strike rate at Beverley from 67 runs.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from 1m2f?
Fozzie is dropping back in trip from 1m2f to a distance at which he has already been placed once from two attempts.
Who is applying first-time headgear?
Lorca's Waltz and Indefensible are both fitted with first-time headgear.
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