2:05 Worcester
The 2:05 at Worcester is a Class 5 handicap chase over 2m110y on good ground, part of the Arc Summer Chase Series. A field of nine runners lines up, with the KTB Fit Scores indicating a fairly tight contest at the top where modest but consistent performers dominate. Definite Dream heads the ratings on 59, followed closely by Independent Jimmy, Auntie Maggie and Greer Hill, all of whom have shown enough placed form to make this a competitive heat.
How the race shapes up
With several prominent or front-running types in the field the pace shape looks likely to be on the strong side. Definite Dream and Auntie Maggie both tend to race prominently while Independent Jimmy and Prairie Queen can also go forward. The key question is whether the leaders can dictate matters or if the race will fall apart in the latter stages, allowing a closer to pick up the pieces on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Definite Dream KTB Selection59/100Definite Dream is a useful performer who has been competitive on his last three starts here without winning.
- 2Independent Jimmy54/100Useful performer who has been placed on both previous visits to Worcester.
- 3Auntie Maggie52/100Auntie Maggie is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after two placed efforts this season.
- 4Greer Hill49/100Greer Hill is a fair performer on his best days but has been largely out of form this year and showed little spark when eighth here last time.
- 5Caterpillar Girl48/100Caterpillar Girl is a useful performer on her day but has been largely out of form this year and was well held when fourth here last month.
- 6Southey47/100Southey is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history.
- 7Daany44/100Daany is a fair 9-year-old with a lengthy record and solid placed efforts on his last two starts.
- 8Prairie Queen43/100Prairie Queen is a fair mare who arrives in form after a recent win and has shown consistent placed efforts in similar company.
- 9Cawthorne Cracker40/100Fair performer who has shown nothing above that level in two runs here and has been well held on both starts this year.
The contenders
Definite Dream KTB Fit 59/100
Definite Dream is a useful performer who has been competitive on his last three starts here without winning. He has solid placed form on good ground and at this trip though he has never scored in either. The yard has failed to strike in 11 attempts at Worcester. Brendan Powell takes the ride on the 8-year-old, who arrives with recent form figures of 2/45-2 and is dropping in class. He has been placed four times from seven starts on good going and holds course form figures of 5th, 2nd, 4th and 3rd from four runs at Worcester.
Independent Jimmy KTB Fit 54/100
Independent Jimmy is a useful performer who has been placed on both previous visits to Worcester. He drops back in trip today having last run over further and his record shows one win and six places from nine runs on good ground. The trainer's modest 13% strike rate here from a big sample suggests he is not one to go overboard about. Theo Gillard is in the saddle for Donald McCain on the 7-year-old, whose recent form reads 1236-P. He has course form of 2nd and 2nd from two runs at Worcester.
Auntie Maggie KTB Fit 52/100
Auntie Maggie is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after two placed efforts this season. She has placed once from three runs at Worcester and holds a clear course liking while having won three times at today's trip from 13 attempts. The yard's modest 10% strike-rate here from a big sample tempers expectations slightly on good ground where she is 2-13. Ciaran Gethings partners the 7-year-old for Alastair Ralph, with recent form of 563-52. Her Worcester record reads 2nd, 6th and 6th.
Greer Hill KTB Fit 49/100
Greer Hill is a fair performer on his best days but has been largely out of form this year and showed little spark when eighth here last time. He has failed to win or place in two previous runs at Worcester and the yard’s 4% strike rate from 89 runs at the track adds little encouragement. Dropping back in trip today asks a fresh question while the small overall sample makes his effectiveness on good ground impossible to gauge with confidence. William Shanahan claims 5lb for Jennie Candlish on the 5-year-old, whose form this year reads 76P-P8.
The rest of the field
Caterpillar GirlKTB Fit 48/100
Caterpillar Girl is a useful performer on her day but has been largely out of form this year and was well held when fourth here last month. She has shown ability on good ground and has won over today's trip though her record at Worcester itself is modest with two placed efforts from five starts. First-time headgear is now applied and that could sharpen her up.
SoutheyKTB Fit 47/100
Southey is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and has placed at today's trip though he remains winless at it after six attempts. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 13 runs at Worcester while this is the horse's first run here.
DaanyKTB Fit 44/100
Daany is a fair 9-year-old with a lengthy record and solid placed efforts on his last two starts. He has winning form at today's trip though he is dropping back in distance after his most recent run over further. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Worcester is a negative while the horse has no previous experience here.
Prairie QueenKTB Fit 43/100
Prairie Queen is a fair mare who arrives in form after a recent win and has shown consistent placed efforts in similar company. She has won over today's trip but her record on good ground is modest with just one success from 13 starts. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Worcester from 78 runs adds a note of caution.
Cawthorne CrackerKTB Fit 40/100
Cawthorne Cracker is a fair performer who has shown nothing above that level in two runs here and has been well held on both starts this year. He has won twice at today's trip but his record on good ground is ordinary and the first-time headgear is now reached after 24 runs. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Worcester adds little confidence.
KTB verdict
Definite Dream looks to hold the best chance in a race where several have placed here without winning. The selection has been competitive on his last three starts over this course and trip, boasts solid placed form on good ground, and is dropping in class which should help. His prominent style should see him ideally placed if the race is truly run. Main dangers are Independent Jimmy, who has been placed on both Worcester visits and drops back in trip, and Auntie Maggie, who arrives in solid form with placed efforts this season and a liking for the course. Greer Hill is next best of the principals but has been out of form.
KTB Selection Definite Dream
This is the narrative read of the 2:05 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and is the selection?
Definite Dream with a KTB Fit Score of 59/100.
How many times has Definite Dream been placed at Worcester without winning?
He has been placed on all four starts at Worcester without winning.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Both Caterpillar Girl and Cawthorne Cracker are wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the best trainer and jockey strike-rate combination at Worcester among the principals?
Greer Hill's jockey William Shanahan has a 17% strike rate at Worcester with an A/E of 2.94 from six rides.
Which horse is dropping in trip having last run over further?
Independent Jimmy and Daany are both dropping back in distance.
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