4:42 Hamilton
This Class 5 fillies’ handicap at Hamilton over 1m68y on good to soft ground features a compact field of seven where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but fairly open event. Hot And Cold tops the Fit ratings at 61 while Porth Eilian sits just behind on 60, with Bearin Up and Epidavros completing the principals on 58 and 54 respectively. The remaining trio are rated between 52 and 44, suggesting the race will revolve around the top four but with scope for a surprise from those dropping in class or with course knowledge.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo with no pronounced front-runners or confirmed hold-up types dominating. Porth Eilian from stall 2 and Hot And Cold drawn in 1 are likely to track the early pace or sit prominently, while Bearin Up from stall 6 and Epidavros in 4 should be comfortably placed. The key question is whether the race will be won from a forward position or if those coming from slightly further back can capitalise on any softening of the pace in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Hot And Cold KTB Selection61/100Hot And Cold shaped with promise when winning over this trip on his second start and has a fair level of ability for a 2-year-old.
- 2Porth Eilian60/100Porth Eilian is a fair 3 year old who won on his only previous visit to Hamilton and has also won at today's trip.
- 3Bearin Up58/100Modest performer who has won twice this year including at this trip.
- 4Epidavros54/100Epidavros is a modest performer who has run to form without winning in four starts this year.
- 5Sound Janet52/100Sound Janet is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at a lower level but was well beaten on her return from a break last time.
- 6Second Fiddle46/100Second Fiddle is a modest performer who has won six times at today's trip from 12 starts and landed a race here from just two visits.
- 7Geo44/100Geo is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year.
The contenders
Hot And Cold KTB Fit 61/100
Hot And Cold shaped with promise when winning over this trip on his second start and has a fair level of ability for a 2-year-old. The yard's strong 29% strike rate at Hamilton from a big sample is a clear plus. He remains lightly raced overall with only three career runs so there is scope for further improvement. Drawn in stall 1 he should be able to secure a good early position. The yard's record here adds plenty of encouragement even though he is unproven on good to soft ground. Overall this looks a suitable opportunity for Sir Mark Prescott's charge.
Porth Eilian KTB Fit 60/100
Porth Eilian is a fair 3-year-old who won on his only previous visit to Hamilton and has also won at today's trip. He has improved with each run and looks well placed from stall 2. The Bethell yard fires at a solid 25% strike rate here while Beasley is no stranger to winners at the track. His recent form reads 7-541 and the progressive profile is clear to see. Connections will be hopeful that any question about good to soft ground can be answered positively. He holds a strong chance if continuing on an upward curve.
Bearin Up KTB Fit 58/100
Bearin Up is a modest performer who has won twice this year including at this trip. Dropping back from 1m2f should suit but he has shown little on good to soft ground in two tries. Both trainer and jockey have solid 14% strike rates here though this is the colt's first run at Hamilton. Recent form of 5-7315 shows ability at a modest level and the drop in class is another positive. David Allan is a regular rider for Tim Easterby and their combined record at the venue is respectable. He will need to prove more effective on the forecasted going than in previous attempts.
Epidavros KTB Fit 54/100
Epidavros is a modest performer who has run to form without winning in four starts this year. He has won over this trip and on good to soft ground, and his record here reads one win from six runs. The trainer’s modest strike rate at Hamilton is offset by the jockey’s solid 13% record from a small sample at the track. Recent form figures of 5-4443 indicate consistency at this level and the 7lb claim of Jake Dickson could prove useful. He has placed four times on good to soft from limited attempts and knows the venue well. The combination of course form and going suitability keeps him firmly in the mix.
The rest of the field
Sound JanetKTB Fit 52/100
Sound Janet is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at a lower level but was well beaten on her return from a break last time. She drops back in trip to 1m today for the first time which asks a fresh question of her. The yard has a solid 18% strike rate at Hamilton while Oisin Orr is only 13% from 127 rides here.
Second FiddleKTB Fit 46/100
Second Fiddle is a modest performer who has won six times at today's trip from 12 starts and landed a race here from just two visits. He arrives in poor form though with a string of lesser efforts and has never raced on good to soft ground. The yard knows the track well enough while the jockey's modest strike rate adds little encouragement.
GeoKTB Fit 44/100
Geo is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year. He showed some spark when winning at this trip on his penultimate start but failed to back it up last time and has only run once on good to soft ground. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Hamilton though the horse has never been here before.
KTB verdict
Hot And Cold is the KTB Selection. Lightly raced with only three runs to his name, he showed clear promise in winning over this trip on his second start and retains scope for further progress. The yard's excellent 29% strike rate at Hamilton from a large sample adds significant weight to his claims even though he is unproven on good to soft. Porth Eilian, who has already won here and at the trip, is the most obvious danger given his progressive profile and favourable draw. Bearin Up and Epidavros cannot be dismissed either, the former benefiting from a drop in class and the latter boasting previous course success and good-to-soft form.
KTB Selection Hot And Cold
This is the narrative read of the 4:42 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form in the race?
Second Fiddle has won six times at today's trip from 12 starts and has also won here, while Porth Eilian has won here and at today's trip, and Epidavros has won over this trip.
How does the good to soft ground affect the principals?
Hot And Cold and Porth Eilian are unproven on good to soft, Bearin Up has shown little on the surface in two tries, while Epidavros has a win and three places from four runs on good to soft.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Hamilton in this field?
Sir Mark Prescott has a 29% strike rate at Hamilton, ahead of Edward Bethell on 25% and Julie Camacho on 18%.
Who benefits from a drop in class?
Bearin Up is dropping in class and Geo is also dropping in class.
Which runners have previous winning form at Hamilton?
Porth Eilian has won here from one visit, Second Fiddle has won here from two visits, and Epidavros has won here from six runs.
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