5:52 Hamilton
This Class 6 handicap over 1m3f15y at Hamilton on good to soft ground brings together a small field of seven where the KTB numbers point to a competitive but modest affair. The top two in the Fit ratings both sit on 56, with the principals showing varying degrees of consistency and course knowledge while several others are dropping in class or trip. Overall the KTB assessments underline limited ability across the board, with recent form and trainer course records at Hamilton likely to prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a race that should be run at an even gallop with no obvious front-runner dominating. Several runners, including the selection and a couple of the principals, have shown they can be prominent or track the pace, which may see the field bunch early before the stamina test unfolds from the home turn. The key question is whether any horse can find the necessary improvement stepping up or down in trip on this surface, as the majority carry questions regarding stamina or ground preference.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tee Aitch Aye56/100Tee Aitch Aye is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year.
- 2Stepanov KTB Selection56/100Stepanov has shown consistent placed form in modest company since his debut, finishing second twice and third twice from his last four starts.
- 3Galahad Threepwood46/100Galahad Threepwood is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in recent starts and has never won.
- 4Roger Henry44/100Roger Henry is a limited performer on his recent efforts and overall career record.
- 5Regulus Black44/100Regulus Black has shown steady progress in five runs and got off the mark last time in a modest event.
- 6Uncle Liam43/100Limited horse who has shown a bit more lately with two wins from his last five starts including a success here.
- 7Annandale37/100Annandale is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place twice from his last six starts but has never won in 50 career runs.
The contenders
Tee Aitch Aye KTB Fit 56/100
Tee Aitch Aye is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year. He won once from three runs at Hamilton and the yard and jockey both hold a solid 12% strike rate here, yet he has failed to place on his only attempt on good to soft ground. Stepping up to 1m3f for the first time asks a fresh question of a horse whose recent form reads 35-807. The trainer's record at the track from 619 runs and the jockey's from 617 rides offer some encouragement, but his overall profile remains one of limited upside. Dropping in class may help him find his level, though the trip remains an unknown.
Stepanov KTB Fit 56/100
Stepanov has shown consistent placed form in modest company since his debut, finishing second twice and third twice from his last four starts. He steps up in trip today having already tried this distance once without success, while the going remains an unknown with only five runs on his record. The yard has a solid 25% strike rate at Hamilton from 53 runs and the jockey is no stranger to winners here either from 373 rides. His recent form of 6-2432 marks him out as one of the more reliable types in the field. As a three-year-old he brings the benefit of relative youth against older limited performers. The combination of trainer and jockey figures at the venue adds further interest to his claims.
Galahad Threepwood KTB Fit 46/100
Galahad Threepwood is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in recent starts and has never won. He drops back from 2m5f to 1m3f having failed to trouble the judge in his one previous attempt at this trip while his record on good to soft reads placed once from eight starts. The yard has no previous runners at Hamilton and this is the horse's first visit to the track though jockey David Nolan has a 12% strike rate here from 274 rides. His form figures of 99435/ reflect a career without a victory and overall modest ability. Dropping in class may bring him into the equation on paper, yet the lack of course experience and patchy surface record suggest he will find this a stiff task.
Roger Henry KTB Fit 44/100
Roger Henry is a limited performer on his recent efforts and overall career record. He has shown little on good to soft ground from his one run and is dropping back in trip today having failed to make the frame in his only attempt at this distance. The jockey has a solid 14 percent strike rate from 258 rides here while the trainer's small-sample record at Hamilton offers no real steer from three runs. His form of 43/956 underlines the modest level he operates at. With no course form on record he starts with something to prove at this venue. The drop in trip could suit on pedigree grounds but his overall profile is one that lacks spark.
The rest of the field
Regulus BlackKTB Fit 44/100
Regulus Black has shown steady progress in five runs and got off the mark last time in a modest event. This is a step up in trip for a horse still rated limited on what he has achieved. Palmer has a solid 25% strike rate here from 52 runs while James is operating at 13% from 223 rides. His form reads 45531 and he has shown nothing on his one run on good to soft.
Uncle LiamKTB Fit 43/100
Uncle Liam is a limited horse who has shown a bit more lately with two wins from his last five starts including a success here. Drops back in trip today having been well held over 1m4f last time while his sole previous go at this distance brought no joy. Trainer holds a 10% strike-rate from a big sample at Hamilton and the jockey is operating at a similar level. His recent form is 22-881 and he has placed once from one run on good to soft.
AnnandaleKTB Fit 37/100
Annandale is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place twice from his last six starts but has never won in 50 career runs. He has shown only modest form in two runs at Hamilton and is 0-3 on good to soft ground. Dropping back from 1m5f to a trip where he is also 0-6 adds another question mark. His form reads 538624 and the trainer-jockey combination has a strong 17% strike rate together.
KTB verdict
Stepanov stands out as the KTB Selection in a race where most participants carry limitations. His consistent placed efforts in modest company, backed by the trainer's 25% strike rate at Hamilton, give him the strongest profile, even with the trip and going carrying slight unknowns. The main dangers are likely to come from Uncle Liam, who has shown recent improvement including a course win, and Regulus Black, who got off the mark last time and is in the care of a yard that fires at a 25% rate here. Tee Aitch Aye cannot be entirely dismissed given his course record, but the remainder look up against it on the supplied figures.
KTB Selection Stepanov
This is the narrative read of the 5:52 Hamilton. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hamilton racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form at Hamilton?
Tee Aitch Aye has won once from three runs at Hamilton, Uncle Liam has won here from five runs, while Annandale has two placed efforts but no wins from two runs.
How many horses are dropping in class for this race?
Three horses are dropping in class: Tee Aitch Aye, Galahad Threepwood and Annandale.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Hamilton in this field?
Both Edward Bethell and Hugo Palmer have a 25% strike rate at Hamilton.
Which runner has never won a race?
Galahad Threepwood and Annandale have never won, with Annandale unsuccessful in 50 career runs.
Who has the best recent form in the field?
Stepanov with form figures 6-2432 and Regulus Black with 45531 both show consistent recent efforts, the latter having won last time.
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