2:00 Carlisle
This Class 4 novice stakes over nearly 8f at Carlisle on good ground brings together a small but open-looking field of six. Only a couple of runners have shown placed form so far and most arrive with very limited experience, which is reflected in the modest KTB Fit Scores that top out at 58. The race therefore looks set to be decided by which horse improves most for the step up in trip and handles the surface best on just their second or third start.
How the race shapes up
With no confirmed front-runners in the field the early pace is expected to be modest. Bella Angelina and Star Of The Desert are likely to track the leaders from their middle draws while Leopards Rock could be ridden positively from stall one. The key question will be whether any horse can quicken convincingly off a slow gallop over the extended 7f, or whether the race will turn into a test of stamina for those stepping up markedly in distance.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bella Angelina KTB Selection58/100Bella Angelina showed promise when third on debut over 7f.
- 2Rake Lane49/100Rake Lane has a single run behind him after finishing seventh on debut and steps up markedly in trip today.
- 3Blairtum Night47/100Blairtum Night showed very little on debut over 7f and now steps up in trip as a lightly raced 3-year-old.
- 4Leopards Rock45/100Leopards Rock has shown fair form in two starts to date finishing placed on both occasions.
- 5Wid44/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year and a recent seventh that offers little to go on.
- 6Star Of The Desert43/100Star Of The Desert showed promise when second on debut over this trip.
The contenders
Bella Angelina KTB Fit 58/100
Bella Angelina showed promise when third on debut over 7f. She steps up in trip today to a distance she has not tried, which asks a fresh question of her. With only one run on the board and the trainer's Carlisle record too small to judge, this remains a cautious read. Harry Charlton has a 100% strike rate at the track from a tiny sample and an A/E of 1.83, though Lewis Edmunds is less prolific here with a 9% strike rate. She has been placed once from one run on good ground and lines up from draw 3 as the KTB Selection.
Rake Lane KTB Fit 49/100
Rake Lane has a single run behind him after finishing seventh on debut and steps up markedly in trip today. The move to 7¾f asks a fresh question of a horse with very little evidence to go on. Trainer Mark Walford has a 10 percent strike rate from 135 runs at Carlisle while Jack Garritty's record at the track is not supplied. He has no experience on good ground and no course form, so this remains very much an unknown quantity at this stage. His recent form figures read 7 and he races from draw 2.
Blairtum Night KTB Fit 47/100
Blairtum Night showed very little on debut over 7f and now steps up in trip as a lightly raced 3-year-old. The small sample means nothing can be taken as read about either the longer distance or the good ground. Linda Perratt has a 6 percent strike rate from 253 runs at Carlisle while Kaiya Fraser's record at the track is not supplied. He is stepping up in class having shown little on his sole start last season, with recent form figures of 8-. He has no course form and races from draw 5.
Leopards Rock KTB Fit 45/100
Leopards Rock has shown fair form in two starts to date finishing placed on both occasions. The step up from 7f to nearly 8f today asks a fresh question of him while the small sample means his ability on this ground remains unknown. Trainer Edward Bethell has a 16% strike rate from 56 runs at Carlisle while Oisin Orr is aboard. The yard's record here reads 16% with an A/E of 0.84 and the jockey has a 12% strike rate at the track. Recent form figures are 32 and he is drawn in stall 1.
The rest of the field
WidKTB Fit 44/100
Wid is lightly raced with just two runs this year and a recent seventh that offers little to go on. Has placed over today's trip but the small sample means ability remains hard to gauge with any confidence. Beckett's 31% strike-rate at Carlisle is a positive while the going is unknown. He has been placed once from two runs on good ground and his recent form reads 7-2.
Star Of The DesertKTB Fit 43/100
Star Of The Desert showed promise when second on debut over this trip. The small sample means there is little else to go on and the lightly-raced profile requires caution. Trainer and jockey each have only one run at Carlisle so their record here is too limited to judge. He has no experience on good ground and lines up from draw 4 with recent form figures of 2.
KTB verdict
Bella Angelina is the KTB Selection. She showed promise on debut over 7f and while the step up in trip poses a fresh question, the Harry Charlton yard's perfect record at Carlisle from a small sample offers encouragement. Her placed effort on good ground adds another positive in a race where so many runners have minimal experience or are unproven on the surface. The main dangers are likely to be Wid, who has Ralph Beckett's strong Carlisle record behind him, and Star Of The Desert, who shaped with promise when second on debut over this trip. Leopards Rock cannot be entirely dismissed on his placed efforts but looks to have more to prove at the longer distance.
KTB Selection Bella Angelina
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score in the race?
Bella Angelina with a Fit Score of 58.
What is Harry Charlton's strike rate at Carlisle?
100% strike rate at Carlisle with an A/E of 1.83 from 1 run.
Which runners are stepping up markedly in trip?
Rake Lane and Blairtum Night are both stepping up markedly in trip from 7f.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Carlisle among the principals?
Edward Bethell has a 16% strike rate at Carlisle from 56 runs.
How many runners in the field have previous placed form?
Four runners have previous placed form: Bella Angelina, Leopards Rock, Wid and Star Of The Desert.
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