8:52 Epsom Downs
This Class 6 handicap over 1m2f17y at Epsom Downs features a field of seven three-year-olds and one two-year-old on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Living In Hope heading the numbers on 61 despite modest form to date, while Takeitorleaveit, Sail On Sailor and Don Pablo Colina sit between 51 and 57. Several runners are dropping in class and stepping up markedly in trip, with most unproven on the surface and at the track, leaving plenty of unknowns to be resolved in what looks an open-looking race.
How the race shapes up
The race-level pace shape points to a fairly even distribution with no pronounced speed or hold-up bias. Living In Hope and Cormorant Rock from stall one are likely to be forward, while Takeitorleaveit and Sail On Sailor should track the pace from their central draws. The key question is whether the step up to this distance allows the prominent runners to maintain their effort up the hill or if the race will be decided by those delivered from just off the pace in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Living In Hope KTB Selection61/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date.
- 2Takeitorleaveit57/100Limited horse who has shown fair form on the all-weather this summer with two seconds from his last three starts.
- 3Sail On Sailor51/100Sail On Sailor is a modest performer who has shown some recent progress with two wins in lower-grade handicaps.
- 4Don Pablo Colina51/100Modest performer who has shown little so far, finishing eighth of 12 on debut then fifth and sixth in two starts since.
- 5Minerality49/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date.
- 6Sweep In Time42/100Limited performer who has shown little in three starts to date.
- 7Cormorant Rock37/100Limited sort who has shown little in three runs to date.
The contenders
Living In Hope KTB Fit 61/100
Living In Hope is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date. The step up from 1m to 1m2f17y asks a fresh question and the yard's solid 15% strike-rate at Epsom is matched by the jockey's impressive 22% record here from 18 rides. Lightly raced with only three career runs so plenty remains to be seen. He drops in class from his previous efforts and is unproven on good to firm having had no runs on the surface. Drawn in stall five he should be able to secure a decent early position. The KTB Fit Score of 61 tops the field and he is the selection.
Takeitorleaveit KTB Fit 57/100
Takeitorleaveit is a limited horse who has shown fair form on the all-weather this summer with two seconds from his last three starts. He steps up in trip for the first time today and makes his debut on turf at Epsom where the trainer holds a 13 percent strike rate from 91 runs. The jockey has a strong 20 percent strike rate from just five rides here though the colt remains unproven on good to firm ground beyond one placing. Recent form of 4-1722 underlines his consistency at a lower level on the artificial surface. From draw six he is expected to race prominently. The KTB Fit Score of 57 keeps him firmly in the picture.
Sail On Sailor KTB Fit 51/100
Sail On Sailor is a modest performer who has shown some recent progress with two wins in lower-grade handicaps. He has already run once at Epsom where he finished a fair fourth and the yard has a solid 10% strike rate here from a big sample of 235 runs. He steps up in trip for the first time today having never tackled good to firm ground either so both those unknowns will need answering. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.94. Recent form reads 7-2311 and from stall three he should be well placed to track the leaders. The KTB Fit Score of 51 leaves him with plenty to recommend.
Don Pablo Colina KTB Fit 51/100
Don Pablo Colina is a modest performer who has shown little so far, finishing eighth of 12 on debut then fifth and sixth in two starts since. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 7½f, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has an 11% strike rate from 118 runs here while jockey is 13% from 160 rides. He drops in class which could help and is unproven on good to firm. Drawn in four he should be able to get a nice position early. The KTB Fit Score of 51 keeps him as one of the main players in a race with few standouts.
The rest of the field
MineralityKTB Fit 49/100
Minerality is a modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer strikes at a 10% rate here from 10 runs while the jockey is operating at 14% from just seven rides. He drops in class from previous efforts and remains unproven on good to firm.
Sweep In TimeKTB Fit 42/100
Sweep In Time is a limited performer who has shown little in three starts to date. He steps up markedly in trip today which asks a fresh question of a horse still with plenty to prove. The trainer is 0-25 at the track while the jockey has a solid 11% strike rate from 36 rides here. Dropping in class from his juvenile efforts he is unproven on good to firm.
Cormorant RockKTB Fit 37/100
Cormorant Rock is a limited sort who has shown little in three runs to date. Stall one might help him get a bit closer to the pace but he still has a fair bit to find on what he has shown so far. The trainer's modest record at the track is offset by the jockey who has struck at a solid 13% from his 16 rides here. He drops in class and has one run on good to firm without placing.
KTB verdict
Living In Hope is the KTB Selection. He tops the Fit Scores on 61, remains lightly raced with only three runs behind him, and benefits from a yard and jockey combination that know their way around Epsom. The drop in class and step up in trip could unlock further improvement while his ability to race prominently should serve him well in this shape. Takeitorleaveit and Sail On Sailor are the main dangers, the former bringing solid all-weather form and the latter having already shown some course familiarity, though both have their own trip and ground questions to answer.
KTB Selection Living In Hope
This is the narrative read of the 8:52 Epsom Downs. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom Downs racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer-jockey combination at Epsom Downs?
Living In Hope, with the trainer on 15% strike rate and A/E 1.08, and the jockey on 22% strike rate and A/E 1.72.
How many runners are completely unproven on good to firm ground?
Five runners have no runs on good to firm and are therefore unproven on the surface.
Which horse has previous experience at Epsom Downs?
Sail On Sailor, who finished fourth on his one run at the track.
Who is stepping up the furthest in trip from their most recent start?
Don Pablo Colina, last seen over 7½f and now tackling 1m2f17y.
What does the pace shape suggest for the race?
A fairly even pace distribution with the race likely to be decided by those who can maintain their effort up the hill or be delivered from just off the pace.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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