4:50 Leopardstown
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden over 7f50y at Leopardstown on good to firm ground features a field of 14 two-year-olds with plenty of debutants and lightly raced runners. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 50 and 41, underlining the open nature of the contest and the limited information available on several runners. Overall the numbers point to a race where yard strength at the track, jockey records and pedigree will carry significant weight given the lack of established form for many.
How the race shapes up
With a good number of newcomers and no dominant front-running types declared, the pace shape looks likely to be on the steady side early on. Several runners are expected to track or race prominently from their draws, while those with experience such as Margot Mae and Carafinn may settle just off the pace. The key question will be whether the race develops into a test of stamina up the straight or if the quicker, more forward types can dominate on this good to firm surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Arizonaneargalway KTB Selection50/100Arizonaneargalway is a newcomer with limited information available beyond pedigree and sales background.
- 2Churchill Bond49/100Churchill Bond is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record.
- 3Margot Mae48/100Margot Mae has shown some ability in two starts, finishing third over this trip on her debut here at Leopardstown before a respectable sixth last time.
- 4Bellesque47/100Bellesque is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 12 percent strike rate here from over a thousand runs.
- 5Katiraya47/100Katiraya is a newcomer from the powerful Dermot Weld yard which has a solid 17% strike-rate at Leopardstown from a huge sample.
- 6Maire Rua47/100Maire Rua is a newcomer from a yard that has been in solid form at this track for a long time.
- 7Stormy Dawn47/100Stormy Dawn is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 8Carafinn46/100Carafinn showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over 6f and now steps up to 7f for the first time.
- 9Nevermindtherain45/100Aidan O'Brien's lightly-raced colt has shown only modest form in two starts over 5f so far.
- 10Fine Line44/100Fine Line has only one run to go on so any assessment has to be tentative.
- 11Shenata44/100Shenata is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown.
- 12A Girl Named Sioux43/100A Girl Named Sioux is a debutant with limited information available.
- 13Honey Deuce42/100Honey Deuce showed little on her sole start when sixth of 12 over this trip at Leopardstown.
- 14Voice Of You41/100Voice Of You is a debutant with no racecourse experience.
The contenders
Arizonaneargalway KTB Fit 50/100
Arizonaneargalway is the KTB Selection. As a newcomer she brings limited information beyond her pedigree and sales background. The Denis Gerard Hogan yard records a 6% strike rate at Leopardstown from 282 runs, which is modest, and the trainer-jockey combination shows 3/50 (6%) with an A/E of 1.16. Alan Casey has no recorded rides at the track so that element remains neutral. By Arizona, she comes from a sire with a 7% overall win rate from 382 runners. Drawn in stall 12, she will need to overcome both inexperience and the yard's modest course record.
Churchill Bond KTB Fit 49/100
Churchill Bond is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's record. P Twomey brings a strong 26% strike rate at Leopardstown from 77 runs and teams up with W J Lee, who has an 8% strike rate at the track from 838 rides despite being a regular rider here. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 172/616 (28%) with an A/E of 1.04. By Pinatubo, she is from a sire with a 14% overall win rate from 854 runners. Drawn in stall 6, any judgement on this debutant has to be tentative given the low data confidence.
Margot Mae KTB Fit 48/100
Margot Mae has shown some ability in two starts, finishing third over this trip on her debut here at Leopardstown before a respectable sixth last time. She remains lightly raced with only two runs and the small sample makes it hard to be definitive about her level. Mrs John Harrington operates at a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1550 runs while Scott McCullagh is on 5% from 74 rides at the track. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 23/272 (8%) with an A/E of 0.82. She is unproven on good to firm ground and has been placed once at the course without winning.
Bellesque KTB Fit 47/100
Bellesque is a newcomer from the Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard which operates at a 12% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1039 runs. Dylan Browne McMonagle takes the ride and he has a 13% strike rate at the track from 271 rides. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 285/1567 (18%) with an A/E of 0.89. By St Mark's Basilica, she is from a sire with a 13% overall win rate from 375 runners. With no course win on record and low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on sales and pedigree background.
Katiraya KTB Fit 47/100
Katiraya is a newcomer from the powerful Dermot Weld yard which has a solid 17% strike-rate at Leopardstown from 3157 runs. Chris Hayes takes the ride but his own 8% strike-rate at the track from 1201 rides is below expectations. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 133/1105 (12%) with an A/E of 0.76. By Oasis Dream, she is from a sire with a 12% overall win rate from 19212 runners. With no racecourse form to go on the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
The rest of the field
Maire RuaKTB Fit 47/100
Maire Rua is a newcomer from a yard that has been in solid form at this track for a long time. G M Lyons operates at an 11% strike rate here from 1166 runs while Colin Keane is on 14% from 871 rides at Leopardstown. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 683/3466 (20%) with an A/E of 0.93. By Frankel, she is from a sire with a 17% overall win rate from 8343 runners.
Stormy DawnKTB Fit 47/100
Stormy Dawn is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. P A Fahy has a modest 5% strike-rate at Leopardstown from 276 runs. Luke McAteer has a solid 10% strike-rate here from 163 rides. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 0/5 (0%). By Soldier's Call, she is from a sire with an 8% overall win rate from 1827 runners.
CarafinnKTB Fit 46/100
Carafinn showed fair pace on debut when finishing fourth over 6f and now steps up to 7f for the first time. Henry De Bromhead has an 8% strike rate from 667 runs at Leopardstown while Ronan Whelan is on 8% from 578 rides here. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 7/52 (13%) with an A/E of 1.76. She is unproven on good to firm ground.
NevermindtherainKTB Fit 45/100
Nevermindtherain has shown only modest form in two starts over 5f so far. The step up to 7f today asks a fresh question while Aidan O'Brien's strong 20% strike-rate at Leopardstown offers some encouragement. Wayne Lordan has an 8% record at the track from 1247 rides. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 210/1431 (15%) with an A/E of 0.83. He is unproven on good to firm ground.
Fine LineKTB Fit 44/100
Fine Line has only one run to go on so any assessment has to be tentative. Denis Gerard Hogan records a 6% strike rate from 282 runs at Leopardstown while J M Sheridan is 7% from 168 rides here. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 81/1025 (8%) with an A/E of 0.78. Stepping up from 6f to 7f asks a fresh question and suitability of good to firm ground remains unknown.
ShenataKTB Fit 44/100
Shenata is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 9% strike rate at Leopardstown. Ben Coen has a 7% record at the track from 366 rides. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 208/1529 (14%) with an A/E of 0.88. By Saxon Warrior, she is from a sire with a 12% overall win rate from 2686 runners. Low data confidence means this is no easy debut assignment.
A Girl Named SiouxKTB Fit 43/100
A Girl Named Sioux is a debutant with limited information available. Daniel McLoughlin has failed to land a winner from 14 runs at Leopardstown. Nathan Crosse has a modest 5% strike rate from 164 rides here. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 2/29 (7%) with an A/E of 1.40. By Sioux Nation, she is from a sire with a 13% overall win rate from 2675 runners.
Honey DeuceKTB Fit 42/100
Honey Deuce showed little on her sole start when sixth of 12 over this trip at Leopardstown. J A Stack has a modest 5% strike rate from 110 runs here. Andrew Slattery has an 8% record from 181 rides at the track. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 22/207 (11%) with an A/E of 1.00. She is unproven on good to firm ground.
Voice Of YouKTB Fit 41/100
Voice Of You is a debutant with no racecourse experience. M C Hickey has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown from three runs. Gary Carroll has a modest 7% strike rate from 621 rides at the track. By Dark Angel, she is from a sire with an 11% overall win rate from 22847 runners. Low data confidence means any read is tentative.
KTB verdict
Arizonaneargalway is the KTB Selection in a race where many runners are hard to assess with confidence. She brings the highest Fit Score of the field and while the yard's record at Leopardstown is modest the selection is taken on the basis of the available KTB numbers. The main dangers are likely to come from Churchill Bond, whose yard has a strong 26% strike rate at the track, and the more experienced Margot Mae who has already shown some ability here. Bellesque, Katiraya and Maire Rua are others who cannot be dismissed given the strength of their connections at this venue.
KTB Selection Arizonaneargalway
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course experience at Leopardstown?
Margot Mae has run once here and finished third. Honey Deuce has run once here and finished sixth.
Which runners are stepping up in trip?
Carafinn steps up from 6f to 7f. Nevermindtherain steps up from 5f to 7f. Fine Line steps up from 6f to 7f.
Which horses are unproven on good to firm ground?
Margot Mae, Carafinn, Nevermindtherain, Fine Line and Honey Deuce have no runs on good to firm.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Leopardstown in this field?
P Twomey has a 26% strike rate at Leopardstown from 77 runs. Aidan O'Brien has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from 2967 runs.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Leopardstown among those riding here?
Colin Keane has a 14% strike rate at Leopardstown from 871 rides. Dylan Browne McMonagle has a 13% strike rate at Leopardstown from 271 rides.
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