4:23 Ascot
This Class 3 Newmark EBF Fillies' Handicap over 1m3f211y at Ascot on good to firm ground brings together a field of nine with a mixture of progressive types and more exposed performers. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Little Dorrit on 59, with Brielle just behind on 58, reflecting a race where recent form, trip suitability and course records will be key. Overall the numbers suggest a competitive heat in which proven ability at the trip and track know-how could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a truly-run affair with several runners likely to take a keen hold early. Little Dorrit and Sibling Rivelry are expected to race prominently from their wide draws, while the hold-up performers such as Hoseki and Nochebuena will look to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the leaders can dictate matters or if the race will be decided by those delivered late in a strongly-run contest over this stiff trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Little Dorrit KTB Selection59/100Useful performer who has not really kicked on since a promising start.
- 2Brielle58/100Useful performer who has already won at this trip and arrives in decent nick after a recent success.
- 3Dojin55/100Fair performer who arrives in excellent order after winning three of his last four starts.
- 4Lady Ridgewood54/100Fair performer who ran well enough over 1m2f on her latest start but has been below that level on her two previous outings.
- 5Incensed53/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with two placed efforts from three starts.
- 6Hoseki53/100Hoseki is a fair 3 year old with a solid recent record of two wins from his last three starts.
- 7Sibling Rivelry52/100Modest performer with a solid recent record including a win over today's trip.
- 8Folk Pageant51/100Useful performer who has won four times in just seven starts and arrives in form after a hat-trick.
- 9Nochebuena48/100Fair performer who showed clear promise when winning her only attempt at this trip on her penultimate start.
The contenders
Little Dorrit KTB Fit 59/100
Little Dorrit is a useful performer who has not really kicked on since a promising start to her career. She was well held in this grade here last season and has been beaten 11 lengths on her only run this year, with the trip looking on the stiff side judged on her four runs at this distance. The drop in class is a positive and she has the benefit of a good draw in stall eight. Roger Varian has a 12% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.93 from 478 runs, while Ray Dawson posts an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.19 from 83 rides. She has had three runs on good to firm without winning or placing and finished tenth on her sole previous visit to Ascot.
Brielle KTB Fit 58/100
Brielle is a useful performer who has already won at this trip and arrives in decent nick after a recent success. First-time headgear is now tried while she has placed once from three starts on good to firm ground. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Ascot from 442 runs is a concern, though Jamie Spencer fares a little better with a 10% record at the track from 920 rides. She steps back down in class having shown competitive form and the combination of recent winning form and the new headgear could spark improvement. Her lack of course form is the main unknown in what looks a stiff test.
Dojin KTB Fit 55/100
Dojin is a fair performer who arrives in excellent order after winning three of his last four starts. He has solid course connections through his trainer and drops back to a trip he has already won over from just one attempt. The yard holds a respectable 9% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.15 from 87 runs, though Robert Havlin's 8% strike rate from 244 rides is more modest. He has placed once from his only start on good to firm and steps up in class having shown progressive form. The recent record suggests he is capable of making his presence felt if the trip proves ideal.
Lady Ridgewood KTB Fit 54/100
Lady Ridgewood is a fair performer who ran well enough over 1m2f on her latest start but has been below that level on her two previous outings. She has already been tried on good to firm without success and steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question. The yard posts a 9% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.93 from 388 runs, offset by Callum Hutchinson's solid 11% record at the track from a small sample of 19 rides. She finished ninth on her only previous run at Ascot and the combination of a step up in class and distance makes this a stiff assignment.
The rest of the field
IncensedKTB Fit 53/100
Incensed is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with two placed efforts from three starts. He drops back from 1m6f to a trip he has won at twice from eight attempts while his sole Ascot run produced a midfield finish. The trainer records a 7% strike rate here from 309 runs and the jockey is 6% from 134 rides.
HosekiKTB Fit 53/100
Hoseki is a fair 3 year old with a solid recent record of two wins from his last three starts. He steps up in trip today having looked ready for the extra distance when last seen and acts on good to firm ground with one win from one run. The yard know the place well with a 13% strike rate from 851 runs while the jockey has a 7% record from 270 rides here.
Sibling RivelryKTB Fit 52/100
Sibling Rivelry is a modest performer with a solid recent record including a win over today's trip. He steps up in distance again from 1m2f and has form on good to firm ground though the first run at Ascot adds an unknown. The trainer's modest 7 percent strike rate here from a big sample is offset by the jockey's very limited track experience.
Folk PageantKTB Fit 51/100
Folk Pageant is a useful performer who has won four times in just seven starts and arrives in form after a hat-trick. He ran no sort of race when tried here on his penultimate start though and the yard's modest record at Ascot offers little encouragement. Stepping up in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question of him.
NochebuenaKTB Fit 48/100
Nochebuena is a fair performer who showed clear promise when winning her only attempt at this trip on her penultimate start. She was below that level when fourth last time though and still has a bit to prove at this level. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Ascot from 431 runs while the jockey has had only four rides here.
KTB verdict
Little Dorrit is the KTB Selection. She remains a useful performer with the benefit of a drop in class and a good draw, even if the trip looks on the stiff side and her recent form has been modest. The selection has the strongest overall KTB Fit rating and the trainer-jockey combination brings solid Ascot experience to the table. Main dangers are Brielle, who arrives in decent nick with first-time headgear and a recent win at the trip, and the in-form Dojin, who brings progressive figures and a return to a distance he has won over.
KTB Selection Little Dorrit
This is the narrative read of the 4:23 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time having looked ready for the extra distance?
Hoseki looked ready for the extra distance when last seen.
What is the recent form of the KTB Selection Little Dorrit?
Recent form figures: 1548-5.
Which runner is trying first-time headgear?
Brielle is trying first-time headgear.
How many wins has Folk Pageant achieved from his seven starts?
Folk Pageant has won four times in just seven starts.
Which horse has won at this trip on its only attempt so far?
Nochebuena won her only attempt at this trip on her penultimate start.
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