3:45 York
The John Smith's Cup is a competitive Class 2 heritage handicap over 1m2f56y at York on good to firm ground, featuring a maximum field of 22 runners. The KTB numbers highlight a clutch of in-form, higher-rated performers at the top of the Fit rankings, with Yabher heading the list on the back of an excellent recent sequence. Several principals bring strong course form or recent wins, while others carry first-time headgear or question marks over trip, ground or draw in what looks a typically open big-field York handicap.
How the race shapes up
With a fair few prominent runners and a pace shape that suggests a genuine gallop, the race is likely to be run at a solid tempo early on. Yabher from draw 13 and several others are expected to track the pace, while wide draws for Dain Ma Nut In and Respond could see them caught a little further back than ideal. The key question is whether the prominent and mid-division runners can hold off any late closers once the race opens up inside the final two furlongs on this good to firm surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Yabher KTB Selection69/100Useful performer who arrives in form after winning four of his last five starts.
- 2Dain Ma Nut In68/100Useful performer who has won both starts at York and holds a strong record on good to firm ground with two wins and three places from five runs.
- 3Respond68/100Smart performer who has won three times in the last year and arrives in solid form after a win and two placed efforts from his last three starts.
- 4Warrant Holder66/100Smart performer who has won both starts this year and landed a course win here last season from a single run.
- 5Thunder Run62/100Thunder Run is a useful performer with solid course form having won two of his four starts here.
- 6Have Secret61/100Useful performer who has run well here without winning, finishing third on one visit and placed on good to firm ground three times from eight attempts.
- 7Rainbow Nebula57/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win on soft ground but has struggled in stronger company since.
- 8Will Scarlet56/100Useful performer who has won at today's trip.
- 9Danger Bay56/100Useful performer who won a 1m2f handicap here on reappearance and has solid recent form including two wins from his last five starts.
- 10Raammee56/100Useful performer who has won both starts on turf and finished a close second in a handicap here over a mile last season.
- 11Quai De Bethune55/100Useful performer who showed his best form when winning over this trip last season.
- 12Auld Toon Loon53/100Useful performer who has won at today's trip but ran poorly on his only previous visit to York.
- 13Hand Of God51/100Useful performer who won a 1m2f handicap on good to firm last time and has struck twice from three starts at today's trip.
- 14Castle Stuart50/100Fair performer who has run well here without winning, finishing placed on three of four visits to York.
- 15Iron Fist49/100Useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip.
- 16Spell Master48/100Spell Master is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a solid third at this level before a below-par effort last time.
- 17Fantasy Believer47/100Useful performer who has won four times at this trip but arrives in modest recent form and was only fifth of six over course and distance on his latest start.
- 18Sportingsilvermine47/100Sportingsilvermine is a fair performer who has shown a mixed bag lately with three wins in his last six starts but also some poor efforts.
- 19Pearl River47/100Pearl River is a fair 3 year old with a solid recent record including a win here from his only start at York.
- 20Altareq43/100Altareq is a fair performer who has run well at York before, finishing third on his most recent visit here.
- 21Per Contra42/100Per Contra is a fair handicapper who has run seven times at York without winning but has placed here and shown he can be competitive on good to firm ground.
- 22Salam Dubawi40/100Salam Dubawi is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a solid third but also two heavy defeats.
The contenders
Yabher KTB Fit 69/100
Yabher arrives as a useful performer in excellent heart, having won four of his last five starts including his most recent outing. He has already shown he handles good to firm ground with a win and a placing from two runs, and he has won twice at this trip from three attempts. This will be his first run at York, though he is in the care of William Haggas who maintains an 18 percent strike rate at the track from 763 runs. Jason Hart takes the ride on a horse who looks sure to go well from his draw in stall 13.
Dain Ma Nut In KTB Fit 68/100
Dain Ma Nut In is a useful performer who has won both starts at York and holds a strong record on good to firm ground with two wins and three places from five runs. Dropping back to a trip he has won three times from five starts looks a positive move after his latest effort over further. He has the benefit of the Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore partnership which has struck at a 50 percent rate at the track from a small sample. The clear negative is stall 21 in a big-field race.
Respond KTB Fit 68/100
Respond is a smart performer who has won three times in the last year and arrives in solid form after a win and two placed efforts from his last three starts. He stays this trip well and has already shown he can be competitive on good to firm ground with a placing from his only run. First-time headgear is now fitted on his first visit to York where the Andrew Balding yard maintains a respectable 14 percent strike rate from 473 runs. P J McDonald rides a horse who should be thereabouts.
Warrant Holder KTB Fit 66/100
Warrant Holder is a smart performer who has won both starts this year and landed a course win here last season from a single run. Dropping back from 1m4f to a trip he has already won twice from three attempts looks a sensible move. First-time headgear is an unknown on a horse with limited overall experience. The John and Thady Gosden yard post a 22 percent strike rate at York from 122 runs with Robert Havlin in the saddle.
Thunder Run KTB Fit 62/100
Thunder Run is a useful performer with solid course form having won two of his four starts here. He steps up in trip today for the first time since landing a win at this distance and has a respectable record on good to firm ground with two wins from six runs. The Karl Burke yard posts a 10 percent strike rate at York from 543 runs while Shane Gray takes the ride from a favourable draw in stall 8.
The rest of the field
Have SecretKTB Fit 61/100
Have Secret is a useful performer who has run well here without winning, finishing third on one visit and placed on good to firm ground three times from eight attempts. He has won at this trip and the first-time headgear may sharpen him up, though the wide draw in stall 19 is far from ideal.
Rainbow NebulaKTB Fit 57/100
Rainbow Nebula is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win on soft ground but has struggled in stronger company since. Only one run here resulted in a midfield finish and the yard's modest 8% strike rate at York is offset by a positive A/E. Untried trip at this distance raises a fresh question while the good to firm ground matches a previous run that offered little encouragement.
Will ScarletKTB Fit 56/100
Will Scarlet is a useful performer who has won at today's trip. He showed nothing when well held on his only previous visit to York and has never tackled fast ground so that remains a question. First-time headgear is now applied.
Danger BayKTB Fit 56/100
Danger Bay is a useful performer who won a 1m2f handicap here on reappearance and has solid recent form including two wins from his last five starts. He acts on good to firm and has scored at today's trip though his only previous run at York was a disappointing ninth. The yard's modest 7 percent strike rate at the track is a negative.
RaammeeKTB Fit 56/100
Raammee is a useful performer who has won both starts on turf and finished a close second in a handicap here over a mile last season. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also added. The yard has a solid 12 percent strike rate at York from a big sample of runners.
Quai De BethuneKTB Fit 55/100
Quai De Bethune is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning over this trip last season. He has already won on good to firm and his York record through connections is solid enough to suggest the track will suit. First-time headgear is an unknown on a horse who ran respectably but without spark on his recent return.
Auld Toon LoonKTB Fit 53/100
Auld Toon Loon is a useful performer who has won at today's trip but ran poorly on his only previous visit to York. He has shown nothing in three starts this year and now tries first-time headgear from a wide draw. Trainer's modest record at the track adds little encouragement.
Hand Of GodKTB Fit 51/100
Hand Of God is a useful performer who won a 1m2f handicap on good to firm last time and has struck twice from three starts at today's trip. York does not read well with a poor run here last season and the trainer holding a 0% strike rate from seven runs at the track. Stall one could prove an aid on this good to firm surface where he has two wins and two places from five starts.
Castle StuartKTB Fit 50/100
Castle Stuart is a fair performer who has run well here without winning, finishing placed on three of four visits to York. Consistent rather than progressive of late with form figures of 7-6602 and first-time headgear is now reached for. Trainer has an 8% strike rate from 36 runs at the track while the jockey is 0-8 here.
Iron FistKTB Fit 49/100
Iron Fist is a useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip. First run at York and unproven on good to firm are unknowns rather than proven negatives. Trainer's modest 7 percent strike rate from 30 runs at the track adds a note of caution.
Spell MasterKTB Fit 48/100
Spell Master is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a solid third at this level before a below-par effort last time. He has placed on his only visit to York and holds a respectable record on good to firm ground including a win. Stepping up in trip for the first time today asks a fresh question of him from a wide draw.
Fantasy BelieverKTB Fit 47/100
Fantasy Believer is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip but arrives in modest recent form and was only fifth of six over course and distance on his latest start. He acts on good to firm but has a wide draw in stall 22 to contend with at a track where his trainer strikes at a 10 percent rate from 161 runs. Course and distance fifth last time underlines he is exposed at this level.
SportingsilvermineKTB Fit 47/100
Sportingsilvermine is a fair performer who has shown a mixed bag lately with three wins in his last six starts but also some poor efforts. He has placed once from two runs at York and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with two wins and four places from five starts. Dropping back in trip today raises a question after his latest run over a mile and a half while the trainer's modest 4 percent strike rate at the track is another negative.
Pearl RiverKTB Fit 47/100
Pearl River is a fair 3 year old with a solid recent record including a win here from his only start at York. He has won twice at today's trip though his latest run came over a longer 1m4f and the drop back asks a fresh question. Trainer Richard Hannon has an 11% strike rate from 345 runs at the track while this is Cam Hardie's first ride here.
AltareqKTB Fit 43/100
Altareq is a fair performer who has run well at York before, finishing third on his most recent visit here. He has won over today's trip and placed on good to firm ground, though his overall record this year is mixed with three placed efforts alongside two defeats. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at the track is a negative from stall 18.
Per ContraKTB Fit 42/100
Per Contra is a fair handicapper who has run seven times at York without winning but has placed here and shown he can be competitive on good to firm ground. He has won over today's trip though his recent form is patchy and the first-time headgear is an unknown. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at the track adds a negative.
Salam DubawiKTB Fit 40/100
Salam Dubawi is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a solid third but also two heavy defeats. He steps up in trip for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at this distance while his sole run on good to firm ground brought no joy. The yard's modest 5 percent strike rate at York adds another negative on his first visit to the track.
KTB verdict
Yabher is the KTB Selection. He comes here in terrific order, having won four of his last five starts, and boasts a strong record at the trip along with proven ability on good to firm ground. The Haggas yard's healthy strike rate at York adds further confidence to his claims on what will be his first run at the track. The main dangers are Warrant Holder, who brings course-winning form and recent victories, and Respond who is in good heart with the first-time headgear to assist him. Dain Ma Nut In and Thunder Run are others who can feature given their course records.
KTB Selection Yabher
This is the narrative read of the 3:45 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won both its starts at York?
Dain Ma Nut In has won both starts at York.
How many times has Warrant Holder won at today's trip?
Warrant Holder has won twice at today's trip from three attempts.
What is the trainer's strike rate at York for the yard of the selection?
William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at York from 763 runs.
Which horse is making its first appearance at York while wearing first-time headgear?
Respond is wearing first-time headgear on his first visit to York.
How many wins has Yabher recorded from his last five starts?
Yabher has won four of his last five starts.
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