2:39 York
A competitive Class 2 handicap over 7f192y at York on good to firm ground brings together a field of 13 where the KTB numbers highlight a clutch of horses with very similar Fit Scores around the 59 mark after the top pick. The race features several runners with placed course form but no wins at York, and a number stepping up in class or unproven on the surface. Overall the KTB assessments point to a race where proven ability on the track and the right combination of trainer and jockey stats at the venue could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With several prominent runners and a pace shape that suggests a truly-run affair, the race is likely to be contested at a strong gallop from early on. Mr Swivell from stall 12 and Cosi Bello drawn in 13 can be expected to take up forward positions, while Checkandchallenge and Cerulean Bay are likely to track the pace and pounce. The key question is whether the leaders can dictate matters or if the race will be won from mid-division or off the pace as the field stretches up the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Checkandchallenge KTB Selection64/100
- 2Mr Swivell59/100
- 3Cerulean Bay59/100
- 4Bragbor59/100
- 5David Of Athens59/100
- 6First Principle54/100
- 7Cosi Bello54/100
- 8The Lost King53/100
- 9Tuscan Hills52/100
- 10Apiarist51/100
- 11Khafiz46/100
- 12New Image43/100
- 13Gentle George38/100
The contenders
Checkandchallenge KTB Fit 64/100
Checkandchallenge is the KTB Selection and arrives with a Fit Score of 64. The seven-year-old has shown he can be competitive on good to firm, having been placed three times from ten starts on the surface, and boasts solid York form with a third and two other placed efforts from three runs at the track. William Knight has a 13% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.25, while Rossa Ryan also rides the track at 13% with an A/E of 1.07. The application of first-time headgear is the notable change as he attempts to bounce back from recent modest form figures of 39-060. His ability to handle the course and the combination of yard and rider stats at York make him the one to beat.
Mr Swivell KTB Fit 59/100
Mr Swivell holds a KTB Fit Score of 59 and is a five-year-old with one win and two places from six starts on good to firm. He has no course form on record at York but his trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.95, while jockey Ray Dawson boasts a strong 22% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.83. Recent form of 20-704 suggests he retains ability and his forward run-style could see him make the running or sit prominently in a race with a strong pace shape. The combination of his going record and the jockey's record at York keep him firmly in the mix.
Cerulean Bay KTB Fit 59/100
Cerulean Bay also scores 59 on the KTB Fit scale and is another five-year-old with placed form on good to firm, having been placed three times from eight starts without winning. He has strong York placings with two seconds from three runs at the track, though he has yet to win here. David O'Meara has an 8% strike rate at York with an A/E of 0.78, and Daniel Tudhope rides the venue at 10% with an A/E of 0.87. His recent form reads 03-425 and he looks sure to be ridden with the pace or just off it. The course placings and the yard's familiarity with the track make him a major player.
Bragbor KTB Fit 59/100
Bragbor comes in with a KTB Fit Score of 59 and is a five-year-old yet to race on good to firm, leaving him unproven on the ground. He has no course form at York but his trainer Richard & Peter Fahey hold an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.39, and apprentice Warren Fentiman rides the track at 9% with an A/E of 1.34. Recent efforts read 24-770 and the yard's positive A/E at the venue offers some encouragement. His ability to handle the step up to this class will be key, and the trainer-jockey combination at York cannot be dismissed lightly.
David Of Athens KTB Fit 59/100
David Of Athens is rated 59 by KTB and is the youngest of the principals at four years old. He has no runs on good to firm and therefore remains unproven on the surface, and he has no course form at York. Hamad Al Jehani has a 0% strike rate at the track from six runs with an A/E of 0, while Pierre-Louis Jamin rides York at 11% with an A/E of 1.14. His recent form of 64-110 shows he can win races, but the combination of the surface question and the trainer's record at York suggest he faces a stiff task. He is likely to be ridden from the front given his draw in stall 1.
The rest of the field
First PrincipleKTB Fit 54/100
First Principle has a KTB Fit Score of 54 and steps up in class. The four-year-old has first-time headgear applied and showed little on his only previous run on good to firm. William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.01, but the horse finished 17th on his sole visit to the track.
Cosi BelloKTB Fit 54/100
Cosi Bello is rated 54 by KTB and has a strong record on good to firm with one win and one place from two starts. The four-year-old has no course form at York; his trainer has a 10% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.97 while jockey Paddy Bradley has a 0% record from one ride.
The Lost KingKTB Fit 53/100
The Lost King holds a KTB Fit of 53 and has three runs on good to firm without winning or placing. The four-year-old has no course form; Andrew Balding has a 14% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.03 and P J McDonald rides the track at 9% with an A/E of 1.01.
Tuscan HillsKTB Fit 52/100
Tuscan Hills scores 52 on KTB Fit and has two runs on good to firm without winning or placing. The four-year-old was seventh on his only previous run at York; his trainer has no York record while jockey Rob Hornby has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.67.
ApiaristKTB Fit 51/100
Apiarist has a KTB Fit of 51 and has been placed once from eight starts on good to firm. The five-year-old has won once from five runs at York; Kevin Ryan has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.87 and Tom Eaves rides York at 4% with an A/E of 0.64.
KhafizKTB Fit 46/100
Khafiz is rated 46 by KTB and steps up in class. The four-year-old has two runs on good to firm without winning or placing and has no course form at York. Edward Bethell has a 7% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.66 and Oisin Orr rides the track at 6% with an A/E of 0.61.
New ImageKTB Fit 43/100
New Image has a KTB Fit of 43 and steps up in class. The six-year-old has one win and three places from six starts on good to firm and has been placed once from two runs at York. David O'Meara has an 8% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.78 while apprentice Mason Paetel has a 0% record from five rides.
Gentle GeorgeKTB Fit 38/100
Gentle George is the lowest rated on KTB Fit at 38 and is a three-year-old with two runs on good to firm without winning or placing. He has no course form at York; his trainer has a 0% strike rate here from 12 runs with an A/E of 0 and Cam Hardie rides the track at 3% with an A/E of 0.51.
KTB verdict
Checkandchallenge is the KTB Selection and brings the strongest combination of course placings, a competitive record on good to firm and the positive trainer and jockey stats at York. The first-time headgear may help him rediscover his best form from a mid-division draw. His main dangers are Cerulean Bay, who has strong placed form at the track, and Mr Swivell, whose jockey has an excellent record at York and who could make the running. Bragbor and David Of Athens add further interest but both have questions to answer regarding the ground or the trainer's record at the venue.
KTB Selection Checkandchallenge
This is the narrative read of the 2:39 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest York course form among the principals?
Cerulean Bay has two seconds from three runs at York, while Checkandchallenge has been placed without winning from three starts here.
Which runners are unproven on good to firm ground?
Bragbor, David Of Athens and First Principle have no runs or limited exposure on good to firm.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at York in the field?
Ray Dawson has a 22% strike rate at York with an A/E of 1.83 when riding Mr Swivell.
Which horses are stepping up in class?
First Principle, Khafiz and New Image are all stepping up in class according to the KTB data.
Which horse has won at York before?
Apiarist has won here from five runs at the track.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies